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GOP blogger on the missing story of the election
Posted on 11/18/14 at 5:17 am
Posted on 11/18/14 at 5:17 am
quote:
Few things are as dangerous to a long term strategy as a short-term victory. Republicans this week scored the kind of win that sets one up for spectacular, catastrophic failure and no one is talking about it.
What emerges from the numbers is the continuation of a trend that has been in place for almost two decades. Once again, Republicans are disappearing from the competitive landscape at the national level across the most heavily populated sections of the country while intensifying their hold on a declining electoral bloc of aging, white, rural voters. The 2014 election not only continued that doomed pattern, it doubled down on it. As a result, it became apparent from the numbers last week that no Republican candidate has a credible shot at the White House in 2016, and the chance of the GOP holding the Senate for longer than two years is precisely zero.
For Republicans looking for ways that the party can once again take the lead in building a nationally relevant governing agenda, the 2014 election is a prelude to a disaster. Understanding this trend begins with a stark graphic.
Behold the Blue Wall:
The Blue Wall is block of states that no Republican Presidential candidate can realistically hope to win. Tuesday that block finally extended to New Hampshire, meaning that at the outset of any Presidential campaign, a minimally effective Democratic candidate can expect to win 257 electoral votes without even trying. That’s 257 out of the 270 needed to win.
Arguably Virginia now sits behind that wall as well. Democrats won the Senate seat there without campaigning in a year when hardly anyone but Republicans showed up to vote and the GOP enjoyed its largest wave in modern history. Virginia would take that tally to 270. Again, that’s 270 out of 270.
This means that the next Presidential election, and all subsequent ones until a future party realignment, will be decided in the Democratic primary. Only by sweeping all nine of the states that remain in contention AND also flipping one impossibly Democratic state can a Republican candidate win the White House. What are the odds that a Republican candidate capable of passing muster with 2016 GOP primary voters can accomplish that feat? You do the math.
By contrast, Republicans control a far more modest Red Fortress, which currently amounts to 149 electoral votes. What happened to that fortress amid the glory of the 2014 “victory?” It shrunk yet again. Not only are New Hampshire and probably Virginia now off the competitive map, Georgia is now clearly in play at the Federal level. This trend did not start in 2014 and it will not end here. This is a long-term realignment that been in motion for more than a decade and continues to accelerate.
The biggest Republican victory in decades did not move the map. The Republican party’s geographic and demographic isolation from the rest of American actually got worse.
Much more at the LINK
10
Posted on 11/18/14 at 6:12 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
Republicans are disappearing from the competitive landscape at the national level across the most heavily populated sections of the country while intensifying their hold on a declining electoral bloc of aging, white, rural voters.
Yet you travel to the northwest, upper Midwest, and northeast, (all blue on the map) and you see nothing but white people.
Nice of the author to interject race into his article when there is none. The red states have waaaaaaaay more non-white people than the blue states.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 6:54 am to Jim Rockford
Problem is the story misses the governorships that were picked up behind the blue wall and in Illinois. Republicans now hold 33 states. That creates a huge bench for republicans to choose a quality executive from. Also a very diverse group.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 7:15 am to Jim Rockford
Whatever helps y'all sleep at night. It was only a matter of time until an outright defeat was turned into a moral victory for the libs.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 8:08 am to C
It also doesn't discuss the white vote steadily flocking to the GOP which can put Midwestern states in play.
Dems in the near future will need 2008 levels of minority turnout to make up for the loss of the white vote, and that's going to be hard to top with such an unreliable voting bloc
The article also fails to mention the gains among minority voters for the GOP I'm 2014. We won the Asian vote, the Hispanic vote went from 27 percent in 2012 to 37 in 2014, and we got over 60 percent of the white vote.
If those numbers stay the same or increase into 2016, Dems are in trouble
Dems in the near future will need 2008 levels of minority turnout to make up for the loss of the white vote, and that's going to be hard to top with such an unreliable voting bloc
The article also fails to mention the gains among minority voters for the GOP I'm 2014. We won the Asian vote, the Hispanic vote went from 27 percent in 2012 to 37 in 2014, and we got over 60 percent of the white vote.
If those numbers stay the same or increase into 2016, Dems are in trouble
Posted on 11/18/14 at 8:12 am to Jim Rockford
This is why the electoral college no longer works as intended. A handful of states decide the election and voters in strong red or blue States see the polls and don't vote because their votes don't matter, so even the popular vote is inaccurate.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 8:21 am to deltaland
I guess I don't follow the logic. I understand that the nature of presidential elections and the electoral college make it difficult to generalize other elections. That being said, when one party has a majority in the House, Senate, Governorships, and (I think) State Houses, then it seems a bit presumptuous to make the claim that the same party doesn't have much of a chance.
This post was edited on 11/18/14 at 8:22 am
Posted on 11/18/14 at 8:38 am to Jim Rockford
I am certainly not a political expert, but I get the impression that many moderate dems are leaving the reservation. The dem party has become a group of small special interest groups, which include minorities, LGBT crowd and environmentalists. The leadership has become to liberal for even the moderate dems.
Just look at the election results from Oregon a couple of weeks ago. They passed a "legalize pot" measure with 64%, but they defeated a "drivers license for illegals" with 66%. They also defeated a "secondary education funding". The measure would have created a fund for Oregonians pursuing post-secondary education and authorized the financing of this fund via debt.
Even though Oregon is pretty liberal they are still capable of voting for conservative issues.
Just look at the election results from Oregon a couple of weeks ago. They passed a "legalize pot" measure with 64%, but they defeated a "drivers license for illegals" with 66%. They also defeated a "secondary education funding". The measure would have created a fund for Oregonians pursuing post-secondary education and authorized the financing of this fund via debt.
Even though Oregon is pretty liberal they are still capable of voting for conservative issues.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 8:54 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
and the chance of the GOP holding the Senate for longer than two years is precisely zero.
and then he woke up, the blanket was all wet and gooey and his belly felt a wet warmth ...
Posted on 11/18/14 at 8:56 am to KeyserSoze999
I'm surprised that Democrats in Democratic Districts/States lost so bad. I think Republicans did this too, but not like what the Democrats experienced this last election. What really shocked me was the State Governorship in states that never had Republican governors beforehand voted in jsut that, Republican Governors. If Democrats don't get the losing of State Governors message(Warning) with the road they've chosen. I have a feeling it will only gets worse for them.
It's one thing to have gerrymander districts to use has a excuse, but the real story of this election cycle, that no one seem to be talking about. Is the Democratic losing states that have always voted in Democratic Governors. The Dems losing there has nothing to with gerrymandering, demographics, or anything else like this. It's a whole state that has always voted democrats Governors. That's very telling, if you ask me......
It's one thing to have gerrymander districts to use has a excuse, but the real story of this election cycle, that no one seem to be talking about. Is the Democratic losing states that have always voted in Democratic Governors. The Dems losing there has nothing to with gerrymandering, demographics, or anything else like this. It's a whole state that has always voted democrats Governors. That's very telling, if you ask me......
This post was edited on 11/18/14 at 9:03 am
Posted on 11/18/14 at 2:45 pm to C
quote:
Problem is the story misses the governorships that were picked up behind the blue wall and in Illinois. Republicans now hold 33 states. That creates a huge bench for republicans to choose a quality executive from. Also a very diverse group.
He covers that in the body of the article.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 2:47 pm to Jim Rockford
Republicans done; It's Over
Posted on 11/18/14 at 2:50 pm to BBONDS25
quote:Do you think a Republican can win in 2016?
BBONDS25
Posted on 11/18/14 at 2:52 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Yet you travel to the northwest, upper Midwest, and northeast, (all blue on the map) and you see nothing but white people.
You don't go through many cities when you travel, do you?
quote:
The racial makeup of the city in 2010 was 32% black (including Hispanics), 45% white (31% non Hispanic white + 14% white Hispanics), 5% Asian (including Hispanics), and 3% from two or more races (including Hispanics).
LINK
Posted on 11/18/14 at 3:02 pm to FT
NH and VA continue to lean Dem without a doubt but to look at those narrow losses and declare them off the table but GA in play is pure delusion.
A Paul/Kasich or Paul/Jindal ticket has the potential to cut deeply into that "impossible" blue wall but will the religious right turn out or repeat their petulant child routine that gave us Barry Saetoro?
A Paul/Kasich or Paul/Jindal ticket has the potential to cut deeply into that "impossible" blue wall but will the religious right turn out or repeat their petulant child routine that gave us Barry Saetoro?
Posted on 11/18/14 at 3:04 pm to shinerfan
Jindal's approval rating is lower than Obama's.
You realize that, right?
You realize that, right?
Posted on 11/18/14 at 3:08 pm to SpidermanTUba
Polls come and polls go. He's still the smartest guy on the stage.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 3:08 pm to C
quote:
Problem is the story misses the governorships that were picked up behind the blue wall and in Illinois
I'm still shocked that happened.
Just to be clear though, Rauner is a major businessman well embedded in the Cook County machine, much like Quinn was.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 3:20 pm to C
quote:
blem is the story misses the governorships that were picked up behind the blue wall and in Illinois. Republicans now hold 33 states.
31 Republican governorships.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 3:39 pm to deltaland
quote:
The article also fails to mention the gains among minority voters for the GOP I'm 2014. We won the Asian vote, the Hispanic vote went from 27 percent in 2012 to 37 in 2014, and we got over 60 percent of the white vote.
the only issue is that turnout was very low in 2014. It will be much high in 2016, it very well could have been that the republican leaning minorities showed up to vote and the democratic ones stayed home.
But anyway, the author is directionally correct - demographics are fricking the GOP. What the article fails to address is...
* The potential for republicans softening their tone to attract a broader base. They did this in 2014, might not work in 16 though.
* Just what an utter failure the democrats have done governing. Yes, the republicans did just as shitty of a job when they had the mantle. But right now the democrats stand for nothing. Sure the republicans only stand against anything obama proposes, but its at least a policy. What ideas do the democrats have? Zip. nada. Nothing.
* Politics are fickle. In 2004, the conventional wisdom was that the democrats couldn't win the presidency, and a permanent republican majority - that didn't happen. Pundits like to make projections but reality is they usually suck at it.
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