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CFB teams who control their own playoff destiny
Posted on 10/29/14 at 12:53 am
Posted on 10/29/14 at 12:53 am
Schools in bold control their own destiny. That is to say that there does not exist a scenario that has an individual team in bold winning out and being excluded from the playoff. For one-loss teams not in bold, I'll provide an example of four teams who, if they win out, would keep them out of the playoff.
1 Mississippi State 7-0
2 Florida State 7-0
3 Auburn 6-1
4 Mississippi 7-1
5 Oregon 7-1
6 Alabama 7-1
7 TCU 6-1 Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn, Oregon
8 Michigan State 7-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, Oregon, TCU)
9 Kansas State 6-1 Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn, Oregon
10 Notre Dame 6-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, Oregon, TCU)
11 Georgia 6-1
12 Arizona 6-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, TCU, Michigan State)
13 Baylor 6-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, Oregon, Michigan State)
14 Arizona State 6-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, TCU, Michigan State)
15 Nebraska 7-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, Oregon, TCU)
16 Ohio State 6-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, Oregon, TCU)
17 Utah 6-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, TCU, Michigan State)
18 Oklahoma 5-2
19 LSU 7-2
20 West Virginia 6-2
21 Clemson 6-2
22 UCLA 6-2
23 East Carolina 6-1
24 Duke 6-1
25 Louisville 6-2
1 Mississippi State 7-0
2 Florida State 7-0
3 Auburn 6-1
4 Mississippi 7-1
5 Oregon 7-1
6 Alabama 7-1
7 TCU 6-1 Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn, Oregon
8 Michigan State 7-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, Oregon, TCU)
9 Kansas State 6-1 Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn, Oregon
10 Notre Dame 6-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, Oregon, TCU)
11 Georgia 6-1
12 Arizona 6-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, TCU, Michigan State)
13 Baylor 6-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, Oregon, Michigan State)
14 Arizona State 6-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, TCU, Michigan State)
15 Nebraska 7-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, Oregon, TCU)
16 Ohio State 6-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, Oregon, TCU)
17 Utah 6-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, TCU, Michigan State)
18 Oklahoma 5-2
19 LSU 7-2
20 West Virginia 6-2
21 Clemson 6-2
22 UCLA 6-2
23 East Carolina 6-1
24 Duke 6-1
25 Louisville 6-2
This post was edited on 10/29/14 at 11:06 am
14
Posted on 10/29/14 at 12:56 am to ballscaster
Every team with 1 loss in top 17
Posted on 10/29/14 at 12:59 am to ballscaster
while i agree with you that UGA is in if they win out (in fact, i believe they would be the 2 seed at worst), you seem to be giving them some extra benefit that you are taking away from teams like notre dame.
how about florida state, oregon, tcu, michigan state all winning out?
how about florida state, oregon, tcu, michigan state all winning out?
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:02 am to ballscaster
if you restrict your list to teams that can control whether or not they win their conference, finish highly ranked, and finish with 0 or 1 losses the list looks like:
ACC: FSU, not counting Duke
SEC: MSU, UGA, Ole Miss (Auburn and Alabama need help)
PAC: Oregon, ASU, Arizona, not counting Utah
Big 10: MSU, tOSU, Nebraska
Big 12: KSU (TCU and Baylor need help, WVU has two losses)
Indy: ND is still in consideration but the loss to FSU will be an issue
ACC: FSU, not counting Duke
SEC: MSU, UGA, Ole Miss (Auburn and Alabama need help)
PAC: Oregon, ASU, Arizona, not counting Utah
Big 10: MSU, tOSU, Nebraska
Big 12: KSU (TCU and Baylor need help, WVU has two losses)
Indy: ND is still in consideration but the loss to FSU will be an issue
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:06 am to ballscaster
I remember the other thread. 
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:07 am to rockchlkjayhku11
quote:Georgia winning out requires them picking off two of the top six and finishing as a one-loss SEC champion. There is no way Georgia wouldn't pass at least one of the teams you mentioned (Michigan State is the weakest of the four, based on their entire schedule).
how about florida state, oregon, tcu, michigan state all winning out?
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:09 am to molsusports
quote:Baylor controls its own Big 12 destiny. If they win out, their worst case scenario is a Big 12 tie with TCU or Kansas State, and head-to-head gives the trophy to Baylor.
Big 12: KSU (TCU and Baylor need help, WVU has two losses)
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:12 am to ballscaster
Those who win an actual conference championship game should get the added benefit relevant to the quality of their opponent.
A "conference championship" in and of itself should have no value. Judge teams by who they play and beat.
A "conference championship" in and of itself should have no value. Judge teams by who they play and beat.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:13 am to ballscaster
i obviously agree, but there still does exist a scenario that they get left off as long as there are 4 non-sec teams ahead of them that don't play each other. granted that scenario would have 12-1 sec champion uga ranked #5 and is entirely unlikely, it exists.
i was assuming this thread was fact based, not opinion based.
i was assuming this thread was fact based, not opinion based.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:31 am to ballscaster
Baylor vs Michigan State would be close.
If Baylor wins out they will have ranked wins over TCU, @OU, and KSU.
If Michigan State wins out they will have ranked wins over (home)Nebraska, (home)Ohio State, and possibly (neutral)Nebraska again.
Michigan State will have the "better lose" though over Baylor, losing to Oregon compared to losing to WVU.
If Baylor wins out they will have ranked wins over TCU, @OU, and KSU.
If Michigan State wins out they will have ranked wins over (home)Nebraska, (home)Ohio State, and possibly (neutral)Nebraska again.
Michigan State will have the "better lose" though over Baylor, losing to Oregon compared to losing to WVU.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:36 am to genro
quote:They do, obviously. This week's rankings are an obvious indication that the committee is looking at computer rankings, which is a good sign. One-loss Georgia would have a better record and tougher schedule than say, one-loss TCU.
Those who win an actual conference championship game should get the added benefit relevant to the quality of their opponent.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:37 am to rockchlkjayhku11
quote:Unconscionable. There's no way they don't pass Michigan State if both win out.
there still does exist a scenario that they get left off as long as there are 4 non-sec teams ahead of them that don't play each other. granted that scenario would have 12-1 sec champion uga ranked #5 and is entirely unlikely, it exists.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:14 am to ballscaster
quote:
Baylor controls its own Big 12 destiny. If they win out, their worst case scenario is a Big 12 tie with TCU or Kansas State, and head-to-head gives the trophy to Baylor.
But SOS gives the nod to TCU from the playoff committee.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:31 am to yurintroubl
quote:
But SOS gives the nod to TCU from the playoff committee.
Debatable at the end of the season.
If Baylor wins out (unlikely IMO we lose at OU), they will win the Big 12 (assuming WVU loses 1 more) and will hold the head to head win over TCU.
TCU SoS is stronger now but Baylor's is back loaded with games at OU and home vs KSU.
SOS would be nearly identical then as they played the same Big 12 teams.
TCU OOC Opponents:
FCS
SMU
Minnesota
Baylor OOC Opponents:
FCS
SMU
BUffalo
Is the committee really going to reward a win over Minnesota (vs Baylor's win over Buffalo) more so than a head to head win and a Big 12 conference title? I would hope not.
This post was edited on 10/29/14 at 2:33 am
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:48 am to BeYou
quote:
Debatable at the end of the season.
True. But until then...
quote:
“People schedule for what they need to schedule for their personnel and their culture,” playoff executive director Bill Hancock said. “I don’t want to comment on the Baylor schedule other than to say TCU is seven and Baylor 13 and that Minnesota victory was a key for them and the victory over Oklahoma.”
LINK
I think a lot of people forget that TCU scheduled a home and home for this year and next with Oklahoma several years back when they were OOC. Baylor is a great team that needs to bulk up its OOC resume. Wins vs. P5 teams help EVERYBODY in the conference.
FWIW - TCU has @Minnesota next year followed by home/home with Ohio State and Cal in the years after.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 3:02 am to yurintroubl
Our OOC schedule is a nightmare but our AD refuses to believe that if we go 11-1 and win the Big 12 that we will be left out of the CFP. We do have Duke coming up in a few years though.
Baylor and TCU both play 10 same opponents. We both play a FCS team. TCU played at home against Minnesota, Baylor played on the road against Buffalo.
If they choose TCU, then the committee will be saying we value this single TCU's win over Minnesota compared to Baylor's win at Buffalo much more than we value the head to head match up. I just think that is ridiculous if they do so.
Baylor and TCU both play 10 same opponents. We both play a FCS team. TCU played at home against Minnesota, Baylor played on the road against Buffalo.
If they choose TCU, then the committee will be saying we value this single TCU's win over Minnesota compared to Baylor's win at Buffalo much more than we value the head to head match up. I just think that is ridiculous if they do so.
This post was edited on 10/29/14 at 3:04 am
Posted on 10/29/14 at 3:06 am to BeYou
quote:
Our OOC schedule is a nightmare but our AD refuses to believe that if we go 11-1 and win the Big 12 that we will be left out of the CFP.
Kind of reasonable
quote:
We do have Duke coming up in a few years though.
Oh snap a basketball school with no track record of sustained success. Quite the resume Booster.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 3:07 am to BeYou
quote:
Baylor and TCU both play 10 same opponents. We both play a FCS team. TCU played at home against Minnesota, Baylor played on the road against Buffalo.
If they choose TCU, then the committee will be saying we value this single TCU's win over Minnesota compared to Baylor's win at Buffalo much more than we value the head to head match up. I just think that is ridiculous if they do so.
How you play those 10 common opponents not a factor? So beating them by 7 is equivalent to beating them by 28?
Posted on 10/29/14 at 3:08 am to yurintroubl
quote:And the day the selection committee takes that TCU team over that Baylor team is the day I grow a fourth testicle. Like it or not, this selection committee was drafted specifically to "correct" "errors" like these.
But SOS gives the nod to TCU from the playoff committee.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 3:10 am to SprintFun
quote:
How you play those 10 common opponents not a factor? So beating them by 7 is equivalent to beating them by 28?
I'm all for Baylor hanging 80+ points on teams, we certainly can starting this weekend but we won't. Unfortunately, that's not how Briles operates. The most we have scored is 73 in a game and we got bitched at by WVU fans for doing so. ISU wasn't happy when we put 70 on them last year either.
Still don't see how head to head result isn't the biggest factor though if it came down to Baylor vs. TCU for a playoff spot.
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