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Message
re: CFB teams who control their own playoff destiny
Posted on 10/29/14 at 8:25 am to ballscaster
Posted on 10/29/14 at 8:25 am to ballscaster
Your list is close. Might even be right.
Notre Dame might get the nod over Michigan State if they both win out.
Notre Dame might get the nod over Michigan State if they both win out.
1
Posted on 10/29/14 at 9:23 am to BayouBengals03
quote:
Notre Dame might get the nod over Michigan State if they both win out.
Only team I take issue with being ranked above ND. All others are fair.
MSU has one good win (Nebraska) which is equal to NDs best win (Stanford). (Yes, if Stanford had Nebraskas schedule theyd only have one loss as well).
MSU also has a worse loss than ND. Their overall SOS is 30-40 spots below NDs.
ND and MSU also have two common opponents, neither of which did they beat by more than ND.
So, id say its a possibility, but it largely depends on how Stanford, Lville, Ariz St, and USC close out the season.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 9:55 am to ballscaster
quote:
That is to say that there does not exist a scenario that has an individual team in bold winning out and being excluded from the playoff.
This is illogical.
the only teams in bold should be Florida state, Miss State and Georgia. 100% they are in. For the rest, some are near locks if they win out and some will need an upset.
With that said, enough upsets will happen to where any of the teams you have in bold will make it in if they win out.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 10:10 am to SprintFun
quote:...or no brain.
So OSU beating Penn St in double OT is the same as hanging 50 on them? I don't believe that.
Jesus, that isn't remotely what I said. Hope you got some sleep.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 10:13 am to yurintroubl
quote:If Alabama wins out, the only way they don't win the SEC is if Ole Miss also wins out. If Alabama wins the SEC, they'll have a better record and tougher schedule than TCU. If Bama wins out and does not win the SEC, they will have a significantly tougher schedule than TCU. Frogs ain't passing Bama, and the idea that they should do so because of one game when the compilation of 12 strongly suggests otherwise makes my computer freeze. Knock it off!
I hate to play the "if" game... but if TCU beats WVU by more than Alabama...and the Purple Wizard by more than Auburn... Say hello to your shiny new testicles.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 10:13 am to Sevendust912
quote:Thanks. Oops.
No they don't. If WVU wins out they win the league.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 10:15 am to JG77056
quote:frick. I don't even know anymore.
You have 10 teams bolded who 'control their own destiny' with the possibility of 6 of them winning out. There are 4 spots. If Auburn, Miss St., FSU, MSU, Oregon and TCU/Kansas St all win out and 2 get left out how do they control their own destiny?
Posted on 10/29/14 at 10:16 am to rocket31
quote:Or you can make it a discussion by offering a correction.
rocket31 another one of these inaccurate threads, just stop
Posted on 10/29/14 at 10:34 am to rocket31
I agree with that.
I thought the committee did a great job.
The eye test is dead. It's awesome.
I thought the committee did a great job.
The eye test is dead. It's awesome.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 11:04 am to castorinho
quote:If Ole Miss wins out, they are a one-loss SEC champion. There's no scenario that has them out of the top 4 if they win out.
the only teams in bold should be Florida state, Miss State and Georgia. 100% they are in. For the rest, some are near locks if they win out and some will need an upset.
If Oregon wins out, they pass the Auburn/OM loser for good this week to get the 4 spot. Win, and they're in.
Auburn has three games remaining against top 11 teams. There is no conceivable way that Auburn would drop out of the top 4 if they win out regardless of who wins the SEC.
If Alabama wins out, they bump two of the top three out to place themselves at 4 at worst. Win out, and they are in.
Looking at TCU again, there is a crazy scenario that has them winning out and not making it. If Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn, and Oregon win out, the Frogs are out. Same goes for Kansas State.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 11:24 am to ballscaster
My mistake on Ole Miss, I don't know why I left them out.
I didn't include Auburn and Alabama because, whether or not it is right, the committee has already said they will put some emphasis on conference champs. So while the pct of them making it in if they both win out is high (esp Auburn), it's not 100%.
And the problem I see with your reasoning there is that you are focusing too much on current rankings. Looks at it as who will be their competition for the spot once it's all said and done. For example right now Oregon isn't in but it is not impossible for them to make it in over Auburn if they both win out (if Auburn doesn't win the SEC).
The locks are the teams I posted earlier plus Ole Miss, not sure why I left them out. FSU, Miss St, Georgia and Ole Miss.
I didn't include Auburn and Alabama because, whether or not it is right, the committee has already said they will put some emphasis on conference champs. So while the pct of them making it in if they both win out is high (esp Auburn), it's not 100%.
And the problem I see with your reasoning there is that you are focusing too much on current rankings. Looks at it as who will be their competition for the spot once it's all said and done. For example right now Oregon isn't in but it is not impossible for them to make it in over Auburn if they both win out (if Auburn doesn't win the SEC).
The locks are the teams I posted earlier plus Ole Miss, not sure why I left them out. FSU, Miss St, Georgia and Ole Miss.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 12:28 pm to castorinho
I think you're overestimating the emphasis they'll put on conference championships. Auburn has the #1 SOS right now, and it's actually getting stronger in the next month or so. TCU, for example, has the #45 SOS right now, and it won't crack the top 25. If Auburn had a slightly higher SOS, then I can understand TCU's Big 12 trophy knocking them up a notch.
If Auburn wins out, when exactly do they drop? Let's compare Auburn's remaining schedule with TCU's:
Date - Auburn opponent - TCU opponent
11/1 - Ole Miss - West Virginia
11/8 - Texas A&M - Kansas State
11/15 - Georgia - Kansas
11/22 - Samford - none
11/29 - Alabama - Texas
12/6 - none (or SECCG) - Iowa State
Italicized are the two weeks where TCU has a tougher opponent than Auburn does, and one of those opponents has already been beaten by Auburn, and the other ("none") likely would be Georgia in Atlanta if Auburn wins out. There's just no way TCU passes Auburn if they both win out.
If Auburn wins out, when exactly do they drop? Let's compare Auburn's remaining schedule with TCU's:
Date - Auburn opponent - TCU opponent
11/1 - Ole Miss - West Virginia
11/8 - Texas A&M - Kansas State
11/15 - Georgia - Kansas
11/22 - Samford - none
11/29 - Alabama - Texas
12/6 - none (or SECCG) - Iowa State
Italicized are the two weeks where TCU has a tougher opponent than Auburn does, and one of those opponents has already been beaten by Auburn, and the other ("none") likely would be Georgia in Atlanta if Auburn wins out. There's just no way TCU passes Auburn if they both win out.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 12:37 pm to ballscaster
quote:
I think you're overestimating the emphasis they'll put on conference championships.
I did not say they will get jumped by a conference champ, I said it is a possibility given the committee has said they will put an emphasis on that....which makes Auburn not a LOCK.
Think about it this way: the other 4 we listed won't be sweating it out the day before the final 4 is revealed if they win out, Auburn on the other end might be depending on what else happens. (for example Miss St, FSU, Auburn, Oregon, ND, TCU, Mich State win out)
Posted on 10/29/14 at 12:37 pm to castorinho
#1 schedule, #1 remaining schedule, #3 ranking. Not a chance if they win out. No possible scenario.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 12:59 pm to ballscaster
I want to say "we'll find out" but we won't. There will probably be enough upsets that if most of those teams win out they will be in.
But if you think Auburn won't be sweating it out if Miss St, Oregon, FSU, ND, Mich State and TCU all win out then idk what to tell you.
But if you think Auburn won't be sweating it out if Miss St, Oregon, FSU, ND, Mich State and TCU all win out then idk what to tell you.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:05 pm to ballscaster
In an absolute sense, no teams control their own destiny. The teams selected for the playoffs are at the discretion of the selection committee. The selection committee is not obligated to select any team, not even an unbeaten team from one of the so-called Power 5 conferences.
In a practical sense, your analysis is as good as any I have seen. But there are no guarantees what subjective criteria the selection committee will apply.
In a practical sense, your analysis is as good as any I have seen. But there are no guarantees what subjective criteria the selection committee will apply.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:08 pm to ballscaster
LSU
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:12 pm to castorinho
quote:Very true. While I contend that that MState/Noles/Aub/OM/UO/Bama/UGA all control their own destiny, there are a few "virtual locks" if they win out.
I want to say "we'll find out" but we won't. There will probably be enough upsets that if most of those teams win out they will be in.
Let's hypothetically put Florida State in the playoff and give the home team the benefit of the doubt in the remaining big time SEC west games. That means Ole Miss and Alabama win out, and Auburn and Mississippi State finish the regular season with multiple losses. Let's assume for s's & g's that this puts Florida State, Ole Miss, and Alabama in the playoff with one spot remaining. That's a worst-case scenario for the not-quite-a-locks. But somebody controls their own destiny in this scenario. Looking at the rankings, I'd say that Oregon is the only team who fits that bill.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:12 pm to Poodlebrain
quote:Thank god you didn't tune in before I made some necessary edits.
In a practical sense, your analysis is as good as any I have seen.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 1:17 pm to ballscaster
quote:
1 Mississippi State 7-0
2 Florida State 7-0
3 Auburn 6-1
4 Mississippi 7-1
5 Oregon 7-1
6 Alabama 7-1
7 TCU 6-1 Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn, Oregon
8 Michigan State 7-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, Oregon, TCU)
9 Kansas State 6-1 Mississippi State, Florida State, Auburn, Oregon
10 Notre Dame 6-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, Oregon, TCU)
11 Georgia 6-1
12 Arizona 6-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, TCU, Michigan State)
13 Baylor 6-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, Oregon, Michigan State)
14 Arizona State 6-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, TCU, Michigan State)
15 Nebraska 7-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, Oregon, TCU)
16 Ohio State 6-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, Oregon, TCU)
17 Utah 6-1 (Mississippi State, Florida State, TCU, Michigan State)
18 Oklahoma 5-2
19 LSU 7-2
20 West Virginia 6-2
21 Clemson 6-2
22 UCLA 6-2
23 East Carolina 6-1
24 Duke 6-1
To me the meaning of control their destiny is if they win out they are in at a 100% chance.
My Choices
FSU- Keep Winning
Miss St- Keep winning and don't lose to the wrong team. They can afford a loss as long as its to the right team.
Ole Miss- Keep winning and become the SEC Champ
Oregon- Keep winning and become the Pac 12 Champ
Georgia- Keep winning and become the SEC Champ
Arizona- Keep winning and become the Pac 12 Champ (USC is thier only loss but USC is already out the hunt for the PAC south title)
Arizona St- Keep winning and become the Pac 12 Champ (UCLA is thier only loss but UCLA is already out the hunt for the PAC south title)
Utah- Keep winning and become the Pac 12 Champ (Washington St is thier only loss but Washington St is a PAC north team so it makes no difference)
Baylor- Keep winning and they will have the Head to Head over conference rivals. ( Losing to WV is bad but oddly enough its far better than losing to TCU or KSU as far as the playoffs are concerned)
Teams I didn't include
Michigan St : They need someone to fall out the hunt but Oregon in particular. Oregon will have the head to head over Michigan St even if they win the conference.
Ohio St: They have the worst loss of all the serious contender. They need other a little chaos in the PAC 12 and SEC to get back in.
Alabama: Even if they win out that doesn't guarantee that they are in. Ole Miss has the Head to Head victory and needs them to lose again before they can truly say they control their fate. The SEC #2 team in the playoff is dependent on other conference. They will have a very strong chance to get in if they win out but not 100%.
Auburn:(Copy + Paste) Even if they win out that doesn't guarantee that they are in. Miss st has the Head to Head victory and needs them to lose twice before they can truly say they control their fate. The SEC #2 team in the playoff is dependent on other conference. They will have a very strong chance to get in if they win out but not 100%.
Kansas St: Even if they win out, they will have a head to head loss with Auburn. They need Auburn to lose again before they can say they control there destiny.
TCU: They need Baylor to lose another game or they may be out due to the Head to Head match up.
Notre Dame: They need some cannibalism in the PAC 12/Big 12/SEC or FSU to drop 2 games. They lost to FSU which was the one team they really couldn't afford to lose to. The head to head against FSU will hurt them even if FSU drops a game.
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