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Do you think polling methods have changed since 2012??
Posted on 10/27/14 at 8:07 pm
Posted on 10/27/14 at 8:07 pm
There were so many polls--particularly polls people like Dick Morris and Karl Rove followed--badly wrong. I wonder if the polling industry has adopted new methods to replace the phone calls and such? There are so many people without home phones I don't see how a telephone poll can be statistically relevant concerning the general voting population.
5
Posted on 10/27/14 at 8:12 pm to I B Freeman
Flask is right, apologies to the freeman
This post was edited on 10/27/14 at 8:30 pm
Posted on 10/27/14 at 8:15 pm to southernelite
removed.
This post was edited on 10/27/14 at 9:03 pm
Posted on 10/27/14 at 8:18 pm to I B Freeman
That wasn't the only issue with right wing polls last election. It was their calculations/estimations of likely voters. What you're seeing now in today's polls as opposed to the polls from the summer when registered voters are polled and counted are likely voters. Rassmussen, Rove and Gallup bet the 2012 election would be closer to the 2010 election in turnout (big GOP) than the 2008. They of course were very wrong.
This time everyone is counting on a heavy GOP turnout, some more than others. Don't think there are any "skewed" towards the 2012 demos.
This time everyone is counting on a heavy GOP turnout, some more than others. Don't think there are any "skewed" towards the 2012 demos.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 8:20 pm to I B Freeman
Are you talking about internal polling or external polling?
The GOP learned a lot from 2012, and are working on bridging the gap in several different ways, but it'll be a couple cycles before its fully implemented and perfected.
The GOP learned a lot from 2012, and are working on bridging the gap in several different ways, but it'll be a couple cycles before its fully implemented and perfected.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 8:25 pm to I B Freeman
Of course they have...
Jeez
Jeez
Posted on 10/27/14 at 8:35 pm to I B Freeman
1. They use cell phones as well as landlines
2. The error in 2012 was getting the projected turnout demographic breakdown wrong. Dem firms and GOP firms use the same methodology and even the same phone banks.
2. The error in 2012 was getting the projected turnout demographic breakdown wrong. Dem firms and GOP firms use the same methodology and even the same phone banks.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 8:37 pm to ever43
quote:
The error in 2012 was getting the projected turnout demographic breakdown wrong.
What have they done to get a better grip on the turnout numbers I wonder?
Posted on 10/27/14 at 8:41 pm to I B Freeman
Nate Silver's site has an article on it:
quote:LINK
Demographic weighting is a legitimate and necessary practice. The past decade or so has seen stronger and stronger partisanship, stronger and stronger alignment of voting in different states, stronger correlations between up- and down-ballot voting (there are fewer split tickets than there used to be), and stronger predictability of voting behavior on the basis of demographics. All of that makes demographic weighting more powerful. It has become easier to project election outcomes on the basis of informed priors — without conducting polls.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 8:47 pm to ever43
quote:
1. They use cell phones as well as landlines
Its really tough to push poll a cell. Not impossible, but not easy either.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 9:26 pm to southernelite
About 40% of landlines have been cut-off. Cell phones will soon be dominant. I know for a fact the Republicans started buying and accumulating cell phone advertising lists and many such lists for the Senate races this year. You will soon ,at least 2016, you will start to get polled on your cell. I opposed it as an invasion of privacy, but it has begun. There will be efforts by the Dem.s to get phone books printed for cells. It's just like "early voting", it is used by Dem.'s. Polling right now is a little inaccurate. It under polls Dem's and over polls GOP's. I got asked yesterday to get involved in the 2016 race, I guess I will.
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