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Message
GOP Takes First-Ever Early Voting Lead in Iowa
Posted on 10/23/14 at 4:10 pm
Posted on 10/23/14 at 4:10 pm
quote:
Representative Bruce Braley (D., Iowa) has been relying on early voters to propel him to victory in the Iowa Senate race, but Republicans have deprived Democrats of that traditional strength.
For the first time ever, Republicans lead Democrats in terms of ballots cast by early voters.
“Today, cumulative Iowa registered Republican returns/early votes surpassed Democrats, to take a lead of 305 returned ballots,” Mark Stephenson of Cardinal Insights wrote Wednesday night in a memo for Republican Senate nominee Joni Ernst. “In 2010, the lead for Democrat returns at this point in the cycle was 16,426 ballots.”
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FWIW
5
Posted on 10/23/14 at 4:11 pm to Homesick Tiger
Hooray for the status quo.
Posted on 10/23/14 at 4:15 pm to JuiceTerry
quote:
Hooray for the status quo.
real into the Iowa midterms are ya?
Posted on 10/23/14 at 4:18 pm to Choctaw
No. I'll just follow along thru you, I guess. 
Posted on 10/23/14 at 4:21 pm to Homesick Tiger
quote:
GOP Takes First-Ever Early Voting Lead in Iowa
The dominoes are starting to fall....
Posted on 10/23/14 at 4:40 pm to Homesick Tiger
There should be zero days of early voting anywhere, this is a scheme the evil Democrats came up with in order to extend their cheating window.
It is easier to cheat more in a 30 day window than a 12-14 hour window.
It is easier to cheat more in a 30 day window than a 12-14 hour window.
Posted on 10/23/14 at 4:42 pm to Wild Thang
The fact the GOP isn't killing it.....
Either says much about Gerrymandering, the lack of GOP appeal, people don't have a clue what's been happening, or bias matters most with many. I believe we need a useful, accountable, and reasonable Government, but Government sure has hurt my faith in it lately. The Democrats are about big Government so you'd think they'd be in trouble these midterms after the governments performance lately, but the GOP barley seems to be taking advantage though. Seems if the GOP had a killer message that inspired people, they'd take more advantage in this politician environment. That's my early green career political assessment and opinion.
Either says much about Gerrymandering, the lack of GOP appeal, people don't have a clue what's been happening, or bias matters most with many. I believe we need a useful, accountable, and reasonable Government, but Government sure has hurt my faith in it lately. The Democrats are about big Government so you'd think they'd be in trouble these midterms after the governments performance lately, but the GOP barley seems to be taking advantage though. Seems if the GOP had a killer message that inspired people, they'd take more advantage in this politician environment. That's my early green career political assessment and opinion.
Posted on 10/23/14 at 4:56 pm to SquirrelyBama
You can't gerrymander a Senate seat. Unless you think states are gerrymandered
Also, if Braley wins in Iowa, their first in the nation primary status should be revoked. That dude is an arse hat.
Also, if Braley wins in Iowa, their first in the nation primary status should be revoked. That dude is an arse hat.
Posted on 10/23/14 at 5:00 pm to southernelite
I expect Dems to go back ahead in 5 or so more days. They are up 19700 in ballots requested.
In 2010 Dems led ballots sent by around 21,000.
But if GOP can stay with 2-4% in early votes that would be good as long as they are eating their own election day turnout.
Most of the polls you see showing Ernst up within margin or error will show early vote going to Braley maybe 9-13%.
In 2010 Dems led ballots sent by around 21,000.
But if GOP can stay with 2-4% in early votes that would be good as long as they are eating their own election day turnout.
Most of the polls you see showing Ernst up within margin or error will show early vote going to Braley maybe 9-13%.
Posted on 10/23/14 at 5:02 pm to TN_Tigers
quote:
In 2010 Dems led ballots sent by around 21,000.
But do we know how those 21,000 voted?
Posted on 10/23/14 at 5:19 pm to Homesick Tiger
quote:
But do we know how those 21,000 voted?
If I remember right it was about +12 Dem. It was Obama +14 in 2012.
Iowa usually goes fairly big for the Dem in early votes.
Whereas in a state like Colorado GOP will cast more early ballots. GOP was +2 but Obama led by +5.
GOP ballots lead in Colorado +12 currently.
GOP has reportedly stepped up their early voting mobilization, its just a question of whether they are getting people that normally go to the polls on election day(usually a strongpoint for GOP) to go early or if they are getting new voters.
**And I was looking at the wrong line..it looks like Dems outnumbered GOP early ballots in 2010 by 19000 but the same principles apply.
This post was edited on 10/23/14 at 5:21 pm
Posted on 10/23/14 at 5:22 pm to TN_Tigers
Something tells me there won't be that big of a spread this time around.
Posted on 10/23/14 at 5:33 pm to Homesick Tiger
quote:
Something tells me there won't be that big of a spread this time around.
Yeah there is so much conflicting info right now for Iowa its hard for me to get a good read. Polls show Ernst up slightly. But the last 3 have shown Braley up by at least 13 in Early Vote.
Quinnipiac out today shows Ernst +2 but Braley +21 in EV!
So something is either wrong with their LV screens, they are including people that "plan" to vote in their EV numbers, or Braley is absolutely killing it with indies which i dont see.
Posted on 10/23/14 at 7:04 pm to TN_Tigers
The Loras College poll has probably been the most accurate here. Both with national races and local ones. Having said that, the Iowa Senate race is really a national race this midterm.
Just throw out the Des Moines Register's polls. They are worthless, and designed to increase readership.
Ernst by the way told most editorial boards here to go frick themselves. Needless to say, the newspapers minds have been made up more than ever, if that is even possible.
Based on conversations with the House Speaker and Governor, I think conservatives (if there are any left in the R party) are about in as good of shape as they have been in Iowa for a long time.
Anecdotal evidence only, but Christie seems to be getting a lot of attention when he travels here. I met him. Wasn't particularly impressed.
Strange state. As much as people hate the first in the nation status, it is probably the best place to have it given the dichotomy in elected officials here.
Just throw out the Des Moines Register's polls. They are worthless, and designed to increase readership.
Ernst by the way told most editorial boards here to go frick themselves. Needless to say, the newspapers minds have been made up more than ever, if that is even possible.
Based on conversations with the House Speaker and Governor, I think conservatives (if there are any left in the R party) are about in as good of shape as they have been in Iowa for a long time.
Anecdotal evidence only, but Christie seems to be getting a lot of attention when he travels here. I met him. Wasn't particularly impressed.
Strange state. As much as people hate the first in the nation status, it is probably the best place to have it given the dichotomy in elected officials here.
Posted on 10/23/14 at 7:07 pm to Homesick Tiger
quote:More importantly, how many of those Dem voters were alive when they voted?
In 2010 Dems led ballots sent by around 21,000.
But do we know how those 21,000 voted?
Posted on 10/23/14 at 7:55 pm to SquirrelyBama
quote:
Gerrymandering
Posted on 10/23/14 at 8:13 pm to S.E.C. Crazy
My wife is a nurse and will leave for work before the polls open and get home after the polls close. Early voting for her is necessary.
Posted on 10/23/14 at 8:15 pm to jorconalx
quote:
You can't gerrymander a Senate seat. Unless you think states are gerrymandered
I could see where you thought I was talking about Senate since OP mentioned this, but I was talking about house seats concerning gerrymandering in my post. With how the republicans aren't doing better than what they're doing in all the elections(House and Senate) right now. Seems the republicans should have better number results with all failures by Obama's Administration lately. Would gerrymandering keep those numbers from showing a true reflection of poor performance by any given politician in a safe gerrymandered district? Not sure if I'm asking this correctly, but I'm trying to say gerrymandering protects politicians that should maybe be in trouble. Since they're in safe districts they don't worry. It is a shame many House Representatives are becoming more loyal to Washington/Party than their own constituents though. Even more depressing than that to me, is many constituents don't even know their representatives are doing this.
This post was edited on 10/23/14 at 8:29 pm
Posted on 10/23/14 at 10:13 pm to Homesick Tiger
Brice Bradley! 
Posted on 10/23/14 at 10:15 pm to idlewatcher
at this point in 2012, democrats were up 137,000 in early voting in iowa. On election day in 2012, republicans won by 45,000 with those who voted on election day. .
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