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re: New Colorado senate PPP poll: Dem incumbent down by 3 (47-44)
Posted on 10/21/14 at 8:05 pm to TOKEN
Posted on 10/21/14 at 8:05 pm to TOKEN
quote:
King- Maine
If he caucases with the GOP I could see them getting to 53 maybe 54 tops, which they need ahead of 2016.
With GA and LA going to a runoff most likely, GOP needs KS, AK, CO and IA on election night. I expect a couple of those to go down to the wire and AK will be long into the night anyway.
This post was edited on 10/21/14 at 8:06 pm
0
Posted on 10/21/14 at 8:09 pm to teke184
quote:
I remember when he was considered to be a likely Dem hold, before Gardner got into the race, because it was thought the War On Womeb BS would work for him.
Yep. It's a bit tough to play the War on Women card against someone who supports making the pill available OTC. That puts Gardner to the left of Udall on contraceptive access. Of course, there are still a lot of low information types who will fall for the fearmongering, but those types are a lost cause anyway.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 8:43 pm to Hawkeye95
quote:
yeah, that was a palinesque moment. the thing is udall has been pretty good on the NSA thing, he at least hits on it as opposed to ignoring it. He will get my vote unless he is getting trounced then I vote libertarian.
Udall is an idiot but yet you still will vote for him. And libs call conservatives 'close-minded'.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 9:12 pm to TOKEN
quote:
Orman- Kansas
Pressler- South Dakota
King- Maine
Could all jump ship either way if they win . They are already planning on throwing control for power if they win.
I am familiar with everything each of these men has said about caucusing with the majority. having said that, I am 100% sure Angus King will not do so (he made one comment back in April I believe it was and it did not go over well back in Maine and he has backed away from it). Orman will lose in Kansas but even if he were to win, no way he caucuses with the Republicans, because that would put him in the minority for the last 4 years of his 6-year term when the Dems regain the Senate in 2016. Doesn't matter, he won't win. As for Pressler, he has less than 0% chance of winning in South Dakota, and less than zero ain't easy to pull off. He had one good poll, and fallen on his face ever since.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 9:16 pm to NHTIGER
quote:
As for Pressler, he has less than 0% chance of winning in South Dakota, and less than zero ain't easy to pull off. He had one good poll, and fallen on his face ever since.
Who dug that fossil up anyway? They kicked him to the curb 18 years ago. The tagline was "A Senate seat is a terrible thing to waste."
Posted on 10/21/14 at 10:42 pm to NHTIGER
Can Brown win in New Hampshire?
I know I keep asking you this question.
I know I keep asking you this question.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 11:28 pm to TOKEN
quote:
Can Brown win in New Hampshire?
I know I keep asking you this question.
Yes, he can win. He's still a few points behind and most believe if the election were held today, he would not. But the two of them slugged it out pretty good tonight in their first debate and there are still two left. Brown trailed Coakley in MA in January of 2010 for the vacant "Kennedy seat" by 9 points 9 days before the election and won by 5 points. He closed fast that year and he has been closing fast in this race. It's within his reach, but the odds are maybe 40-60 against him. As with most of the close races, it depends on the turnout. He could lose by 6 or win by 2.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 12:29 pm to TN_Tigers
quote:
But the original report had 28k votes in with GOP +15.0
Now its 80k in with GOP ballots +15.4.
Both of those reports are before in person voting which started yesterday.
I expect an update either today or tomorrow.
UPDATE: 333k ballots in(19% of total 2010 ballots counted), GOP ballots lead cut to 12.2%.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 12:34 pm to TN_Tigers
quote:what state
UPDATE: 333k ballots in(19% of total 2010 ballots counted), GOP ballots lead cut to 12.2%.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 12:37 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
what state
Colorado
Also expecting USAToday poll out of Colorado sometime today.
Last one was Gardner +1 from 9/13-16.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 12:41 pm to TN_Tigers
TN, Nunn is leading in yet another poll.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 12:49 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
TN, Nunn is leading in yet another poll.
Yeah and its SurveyUSA which is usually pretty solid.
Nunn went from +9 to +13 among women and from -11 to -9 among men.
In person early voting is going in GA and over the next day or two, returned ballots among blacks will be greater percentage wise than 2010.
So definitely trending towards Nunn.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 1:11 pm to TN_Tigers
GARDNER UP 7 POINTS IN NEW SUFFOLK POLL. 46-39
Posted on 10/22/14 at 1:23 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
GARDNER UP 7 POINTS IN NEW SUFFOLK POLL. 46-39
That's a couple more points than I thought it would be. Gardner is running +13 with indies and even with women. Udall is -13 favorability while Gardner is +4.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 1:24 pm to TN_Tigers
An incumbent at less than 40% this close to November is not good news.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 1:36 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
An incumbent at less than 40% this close to November is not good news.
And now we know when GOP led ballots at +15 Gardner led in votes +8.
Of course that was with only 32k in. I expect closer to 1-1.2 million early votes in Colorado. 1/4 of those will be indies or no party ballots. So that Gardner +13 with indies is a good sign.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 1:55 pm to TN_Tigers
quote:
quote:
TN, Nunn is leading in yet another poll.
Yeah and its SurveyUSA which is usually pretty solid.
One thing in there I did find encouraging. Perdue leads Nunn 53-43 among those who have already voted, while Nunn leads Perdue 46-43 among those who have not yet voted (obviously the great majority). Nevertheless, a bird in the hand ... Saying you WILL do something means only that you have said you are a likely voter who favors one candidate over the other. Until that thought turns into action, i.e., the actual process of casting the vote,it remains only an expectation. Which brings it all back to the issue of turnout.
Your observation in a previous poll that 1 person responded that he/she did not know who Obama came to mind as I read in this poll that 3% of those who ALREADY VOTED responded that they are "Undecided" !!!
Posted on 10/22/14 at 2:10 pm to NHTIGER
quote:
One thing in there I did find encouraging. Perdue leads Nunn 53-43 among those who have already voted, while Nunn leads Perdue 46-43 among those who have not yet voted
Good catch there
quote:
Saying you WILL do something means only that you have said you are a likely voter who favors one candidate over the other
Similar thing going in Iowa where GOP and Dems are even in ballots returned but Dems have sizable lead in "ballots requested"
So will we see Dems take the lead or are those ballots going to go unreturned is the question.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 2:20 pm to TN_Tigers
Probably needs it's own thread, but this won't help Udall.
O'Keefe strikes again
O'Keefe strikes again
This post was edited on 10/22/14 at 2:22 pm
Posted on 10/22/14 at 3:05 pm to Oenophile Brah
Unbelievable...
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