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re: Crude watch: What's going on?
Posted on 10/10/14 at 12:27 pm to cwill
Posted on 10/10/14 at 12:27 pm to cwill
Another key factor in domestic exploration activities is the price of NG. It had stabilized for a few months above $4.5. Now that it's back below $4, it will really affect the players. Dry holes will quickly eat up their costs.
1
Posted on 10/10/14 at 1:07 pm to C
Well it was a thread about crude pricing. But NG needs $4.50 to reach the supply-demand equilibrium in my view. I keep reading about $5 NG in 2020....we'll see. The Marcellus is a beast and right now most of that gas is locked up in the NE where prices are around $2.75-$3/M...once the infrastructure is in place and it starts getting into the wider market I think overall prices get depressed. JMO.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 1:07 pm to NOFOX
quote:
I don't think Saudi refining costs are that high
They are a good bit higher.
quote:
They make money exporting unrefined crude.
And it's getting to be a problem for some. China has had issues where they can't afford to make it profitable after buying Saudi crude.
quote:
Saudi has the cheapest oil to extract.
Very true.
quote:
They simply need high prices to fund their social welfare and keep the royals in power.
Also very true.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 1:08 pm to barry
quote:
Agreed for the land. A lot of the offshore projects shouldn't be effected unless it sits at 80 for a couple years.
Yeah, I wasn't thinking offshore...that's probably lending to EXXI's collapse.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 1:10 pm to htownjeep
quote:
quote:
I don't think Saudi refining costs are that high
They are a good bit higher.
quote:
They make money exporting unrefined crude.
And it's getting to be a problem for some. China has had issues where they can't afford to make it profitable after buying Saudi crude.
They have a mix, but it is mostly heavy. And there is a lot of nasty shite that left after refining. Not many refineries can handle it. Not sure what the cost diffs are though.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 1:20 pm to C
quote:
Significant expansions happening there too.
Understatement of the thread. They are massive. When I was over there last we visited the Manifa site and I saw the islands they built and was blown away. I'll be over there next month for a couple of other ones that I have stuff going into and they tell me they are even bigger.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 1:21 pm to cwill
I think brent bounces higher here soon, but WTI will take a while longer. Basing this on some things already priced in and demand. The technical guys are saying support at $80/$90 for the two. If it breaks through there it will get interesting.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 1:25 pm to cwill
quote:
They have a mix, but it is mostly heavy.
And sour as hell and they also have a big problem with black powder over there. That's why a lot of their pipelines cost way more than one you would have to have in Texas for example. They have to have a lot of duplexes, welded overlays and special considerations for a lot of their materials.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 6:55 pm to TulaneUVA
quote:
What's going on with the oversupply?
ISIS flooding the MKT with 30$-40$ pb black market crude.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 7:13 pm to htownjeep
quote:
Understatement of the thread. They are massive. When I was over there last we visited the Manifa site and I saw the islands they built and was blown away. I'll be over there next month for a couple of other ones that I have stuff going into and they tell me they are even bigger
Manifa is about to come online fully, took a tour a few weeks ago and almost all the drilling is complete, including power injection wells both offshore and on the islands. Depending on how the purpose built refinery for this field works out the bump in capacity will be pretty big.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 9:48 pm to jonboy
quote:
ISIS flooding the MKT with 30$-40$ pb black market crude.
Not even a blip on the radar.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 11:36 pm to TulaneUVA
$2.83 in Tennessee yesterday.
Posted on 10/11/14 at 12:14 am to PlanoPrivateer
quote:
Out and about in Frisco, TX this morning I noted several stations with $2.99 a gallon for regular.
That's what I paid for gas yesterday here in Baton Rouge at a Valero station.
Posted on 10/11/14 at 12:28 am to TulaneUVA
If Arab states like Saudi, UAE, and Qatar have decided to join in and hurt the Russians by increasing the oil supply, do they have enough to make oil dip further.. and how long could they sustain it?
This post was edited on 10/11/14 at 12:29 am
Posted on 10/11/14 at 7:26 am to Asgard Device
LINK
LINK
quote:
Saudi Arabia to pressure Russia, Iran with price of oil Saudi Arabia will force the price of oil down, in an effort to put political pressure on Iran and Russia, according to the President of Saudi Arabia Oil Policies and Strategic Expectations Center.
Saudi Arabia plans to sell oil cheap for political reasons, one analyst says. To pressure Iran to limit its nuclear program, and to change Russia's position on Syria, Riyadh will sell oil below the average spot price at $50 to $60 per barrel in the Asian markets and North America, says Rashid Abanmy, President of the Riyadh-based Saudi Arabia Oil Policies and Strategic Expectations Center. The marked decrease in the price of oil in the last three months, to $92 from $115 per barrel, was caused by Saudi Arabia, according to Abanmy.
LINK
quote:
With oil prices estimated by the government to average $100/barrel for 2015-2017, Russia may be over-estimating. Brent crude settled at $88.97 per barrel for the November 2014 futures contract on Thursday.
Posted on 10/11/14 at 10:00 am to TigerFanatic99
Down to $2.99 in Ga 
Posted on 10/11/14 at 10:28 am to DawgCountry
quote:Psychological reaction to fracking opening up a brave new world of previously untouchable crude. OPEC is simply putting it on sale, resulting in downward pressure on prices, which in turn makes fracking less attractive to cash-heavy investors.
Crude watch: What's going on?
Posted on 10/11/14 at 10:57 am to beaverfever
quote:
don't buy this "nobody makes money at less than 100" crap. Adjusted for inflation oil at 100 dollars is still ridiculously high. So nobody has made money selling oil until the last 5 years or so???
in the 8-s and 90s were were still drilling in shallow well locations. those have started to dry up and they have moved to deep water locations, oil buried much deeper in the ground, and to shale oil fields. there are much more expensive to build and operate. high oil prices justify the capitol it take to get these resources out of the ground.
high regulations dont help either
Posted on 10/13/14 at 6:56 am to TulaneUVA
Supply/Demand plus possible moves on geopoliitical chessboard?
From Reuters this morning.
Reuters
From Reuters this morning.
quote:
Saudi Arabia is quietly telling oil market participants that Riyadh is comfortable with markedly lower oil prices for an extended period, a sharp shift in policy that may be aimed at slowing the expansion of rival producers including those in the U.S. shale patch.
Reuters
Posted on 10/13/14 at 8:11 am to TulaneUVA
quote:
Crude watch
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