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How accurate are the polls? (Cassidy vs Landrieu)
Posted on 9/28/14 at 11:31 am
Posted on 9/28/14 at 11:31 am
I've never really looked back on how accurate the various polls are. Of the 4 sources listed below, who's usually the most accurate?
This post was edited on 9/28/14 at 11:45 am
15
Posted on 9/28/14 at 11:33 am to tigerpawl
Don't believe any until after the primary
Posted on 9/28/14 at 11:36 am to tigerpawl
quote:While I can't answer your question with any authority, I do know if Queen Mary is seeing those same results we are in for one hell of a negative campaign on her part over the next two months.
How accurate are the polls? (Cassidy vs Landrieu)
She will probably try to connect Dr. Cassidy to being an al Qaeda terrorist before it's over. Or at least the Taliban.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 11:36 am to tigerpawl
I can't wait for the day Mary's fatass is fired from the state of LA.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 11:43 am to tigerpawl
Those are probably right head to head but you have to also think about the others running will take a small percentage away from each.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 11:48 am to papasmurf1269
Those polls are assuming that's going to be the December runoff.
In reality, the D's have a financial advantage and will flood the state with money, especially if we come out of the November elections with a 50-49 R advantage.
If the R's have 51 or more the D's might just keep their powder dry for 2016 (or any special elections that might happen before then.)
In reality, the D's have a financial advantage and will flood the state with money, especially if we come out of the November elections with a 50-49 R advantage.
If the R's have 51 or more the D's might just keep their powder dry for 2016 (or any special elections that might happen before then.)
Posted on 9/28/14 at 2:24 pm to tigerpawl
Statistically speaking, a larger sampling poll of likely voters is best, but depending on how they sample (hours of sampling, land lines vs all phone lines,ect), and how they phrase the questions will effect the outcome.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 2:33 pm to tigerpawl
quote:
How accurate are the polls?
Not very. They had South Carolina at No. 6 pre season.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 2:36 pm to tigerpawl
quote:
How accurate are the polls?
I see dead people deciding the winner
Posted on 9/28/14 at 2:37 pm to tigerpawl
Cassidy probably has the edge and if he can get into a runoff, Mary is done. However, Maness will steal enough votes from Cassidy and Mary avoids a runoff.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 2:40 pm to WeeWee
quote:I don't think you understand how the jungle primary system in Louisiana works.
However, Maness will steal enough votes from Cassidy and Mary avoids a runoff.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 3:53 pm to LSURussian
quote:
She will probably try to connect Dr. Cassidy to being an al Qaeda terrorist before it's over. Or at least the Taliban.
Already saying he wants to kill old people, but that's the standard Dem playbook.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 4:09 pm to tigerpawl
It's nothing worth getting excited over but it's a positive piece of good news. Cassidy needs to start going on the offensive soon when he has a very small lead over mary.
It also doesn't help things that fricking Maness is making it more complicated than it needs to be.
It also doesn't help things that fricking Maness is making it more complicated than it needs to be.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 4:09 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Cassidy probably has the edge and if he can get into a runoff
I'm not so sure about that. She won the last time she was forced into a runoff (against Terrellible in 2002).
quote:
However, Maness will steal enough votes from Cassidy and Mary avoids a runoff.
That's backwards. You avoid a runoff by getting 50% + 1 vote in the jungle primary.
Maness siphoning votes from Cassidy makes a runoff more likely. If he only grabs a few votes Cassidy wins outright.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 4:36 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
especially if we come out of the November elections with a 50-49 R advantage.
It's also possible the outcome of the Louisiana run-off in December will still leave control of the Senate up in the air.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 5:10 pm to NHTIGER
quote:
It's also possible the outcome of the Louisiana run-off in December will still leave control of the Senate up in the air.
Is that assuming Orman hasn't announced his affiliation yet?
Posted on 9/28/14 at 5:18 pm to Bestbank Tiger
I thought we got rid of the jungle primary a few years ago. What am I recalling?
Posted on 9/28/14 at 5:32 pm to tigerpawl
Same woman who literally squeaked by three horrible candidates... Woody Jenkins, Suze Haik-Terrel and John Kennedy is behind in the polls to a sitting Congressman.
Why am I not surprised?
Why am I not surprised?
Posted on 9/28/14 at 5:34 pm to Jake88
quote:
I thought we got rid of the jungle primary a few years ago. What am I recalling?
I want to say they did, but then they brought it back.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 5:37 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
I want to say they did, but then they brought it back.
I thought for certain I voted in a party only primary when Vitter was up for reelection. When did they bring it back?
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