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Posted on 9/28/14 at 5:46 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
quote:
It's also possible the outcome of the Louisiana run-off in December will still leave control of the Senate up in the air.
Is that assuming Orman hasn't announced his affiliation yet?
No, am referring to the possibility of a January 6th runoff for the Georgia (another state that requires 50%+1 to win in November) seat.
In 2008, the race went to a runoff after incumbent Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss, whose seat is at stake this year after his retirement announcement, received 49.8% of the vote and Dem. candidate Jim Martin got 46.8%. How did both come up short of the 50%+1? Because the Libertarian in the race, Allen Buckley, got 3.4% to play spoiler.
This year, Libertarian Amanda Swafford is currently polling at about 4%, the same as Buckley got in 2008. After a very stupid ad run by Perdue just when he was starting to look like he would reach the required 50%+1, there exists the very real possibility he could repeat Saxby's 2008 number of 49.8% and be forced into a runoff with Nunn.
Here's the kicker though:
In 2008, that runoff was held on December 2nd, equivalent to this year's possible LA runoff. However, this time around, Georgia has scheduled a runoff (if necessary), for JANUARY 6th, three days after the 114th Congress is sworn in !!!
If Republicans lead 50-49 after a Louisiana runoff, you will see absolute chaos in the Peach state, as well as in Washington !!!
(FTR, I am absolutely certain that Orman, if he wins, will caucus with the Dems, no matter who controls the Senate. Why? Because he knows the Dems will win the Senate in 2016 and wants to be on the "right side" with Democratic leaders for the following four years. He'll worry about his re-election around early 2019, when he will suddenly move to the right in anticipation of the 2020 election. If there's a time when he starts caucusing with the Republicans, it will be then, and not on January 3, 2015.)
This post was edited on 9/28/14 at 5:49 pm
Posted on 9/28/14 at 6:06 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Cassidy probably has the edge and if he can get into a runoff, Mary is done. However, Maness will steal enough votes from Cassidy and Mary avoids a runoff.
This makes no sense. Maness' 2% of the vote is coming from potential Cassidy voters how would an extra candidate make a run-off less likely for Mary.
Odds are Cassidy wins without a run-off. But if Maness screws us and forces a run-oo that hurts cassidy in two ways, we will be the last election and resources nation wide will pour in for mary in that race and morons that support Maness are stupid enough to stay home and not vote in the General because their loser didn't win.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 6:22 pm to tigerpawl
The polls can be skewed, but I don't think any Democrat incumbent could win Louisiana right now. Things are too divisive/partisan these days.
She should have switched parties.
She should have switched parties.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 8:49 pm to Asgard Device
She is projected by inner circles to lose if that counts for anything. Negatives don't do much at end of races btw.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 10:08 pm to Asgard Device
quote:
She should have switched parties.
Hmmm.... unions don't typically give money to republican candidates and that's who funds her campaigns.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 10:11 pm to mytigger
quote:
Hmmm.... unions don't typically give money to republican candidates and that's who funds her campaigns.
Republicans don't have funding?
Just switch parties and play the game. Support whomever throws money at republicans. Winning is the ultimate goal, here.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 10:15 pm to Asgard Device
Sure republicans have funding, but what republican in his right mind is going to fund Mary when she votes 100% of the time for abortion and same sex marriage, consistently votes with Obama and votes against small businesses and in unison with the unions?
If she didn't do all those thing republicans would likely vote for her despite the (D). She supports the liberal agenda and they finance her campaign, plain and simple.
If she didn't do all those thing republicans would likely vote for her despite the (D). She supports the liberal agenda and they finance her campaign, plain and simple.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 10:25 pm to mytigger
quote:
what republican in his right mind is going to fund Mary when she votes 100% of the time for abortion and same sex marriage, consistently votes with Obama and votes against small businesses and in unison with the unions?
Dude, you are cracking me up. I just said she should have switched to to the Republican party. I'm talking back in 2009 or 2010 when the writing was on the wall in Louisiana. She could have given a speech deriding Obama and other liberals and really pander to the Louisiana populace. In order to keep the money flowing her voting record would reflect whatever party she is aligned with.
Plenty of Louisiana Democrats have realized this and have switched parties.
This post was edited on 9/28/14 at 10:26 pm
Posted on 9/28/14 at 11:06 pm to Asgard Device
quote:
I just said she should have switched to to the Republican party.
Her daddy would have disowned her.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 11:19 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Her daddy would have disowned her.
Well, they'll never win another statewide election as a Democrat. I'm not sure that any Democrat could win Louisiana in this political climate. It's too late now, obviously.
I suppose Mary can still run for US congress or LA senate. What would Mitch do? Just ride the Mayor gig out?
This post was edited on 9/28/14 at 11:21 pm
Posted on 9/28/14 at 11:48 pm to tigerpawl
That Fox News poll with Cassidy up big is a head to head poll so it's misleading.
It's hard to get a feel on how much support Maness has because he's virtually non-existent in south Louisiana.
This race is certainly headed towards a run off. I'm just curious to see how much support Mary has in the primary.
It's hard to get a feel on how much support Maness has because he's virtually non-existent in south Louisiana.
This race is certainly headed towards a run off. I'm just curious to see how much support Mary has in the primary.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 4:19 am to tigerpawl
I don't think those polls include a very important demographic for Mary - dead people.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 6:31 am to LSURussian
quote:
While I can't answer your question with any authority, I do know if Queen Mary is seeing those same results we are in for one hell of a negative campaign on her part over the next two months.
She will probably try to connect Dr. Cassidy to being an al Qaeda terrorist before it's over. Or at least the Taliban.
k
Posted on 9/29/14 at 6:33 am to WeeWee
quote:
However, Maness will steal enough votes from Cassidy and Mary avoids a runoff.
You must be literally talking about "stealing" votes - as in removing some of Cassidy's votes and casting them for no one. Because if you're talking about Maness picking up votes at Cassidy's expense - well then your statement just makes you look like a total idiot whose HS civics education failed him.
This post was edited on 9/29/14 at 6:34 am
Posted on 9/29/14 at 6:41 am to tigerpawl
Not accurate, impossible to properly poll the dead vote right now.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 6:44 am to Elcid96
quote:
Not accurate, impossible to properly poll the dead vote right now.
More accurate than in other states. Because Louisiana counts absentee ballots cast by people who are alive at the time they cast their absentee but dead at the time of the election itself - the poll is more accurate as the elder folks who are on the verge of death should not be counted if that law did not exist and it would be hard to sort them out.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 9:42 am to mytigger
quote:
, but what republican in his right mind is going to fund Mary
Boysie Bollinger and many top dogs in the oil and gas industry say hello.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 12:10 pm to SpidermanTUba
quote:
You must be literally talking about "stealing" votes - as in removing some of Cassidy's votes and casting them for no one. Because if you're talking about Maness picking up votes at Cassidy's expense - well then your statement just makes you look like a total idiot whose HS civics education failed him.
While he's wrong with that statement he's got the general idea down for why Maness is in the race.
He's in the race to take votes away from Cassidy.. Keeping Cassidy below 50% and forcing him into a runoff with Mary. The strategy is to keep her alive until December. Anything can happen if she makes it that far.
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