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(M&M) -- Saints are still 6/1 to win Superbowl, even after 0-2 start.
Posted on 9/18/14 at 9:53 am
Posted on 9/18/14 at 9:53 am
Heard this on Mike and Mike this morning. They were throwing out the updated SB odds for each team (comparing what they started season at to now after two games). All teams that are 1-1 or 0-2 odds dropped significantly except for Saints who stayed at 6/1.
*However, I went on Vegas Insider and it says 18/1. This would make more sense since only 12% of 0-2 teams even make the playoffs much less win SB.
*However, I went on Vegas Insider and it says 18/1. This would make more sense since only 12% of 0-2 teams even make the playoffs much less win SB.
5
Posted on 9/18/14 at 9:56 am to The Mick
6 TO 1 ODDS?
So you're saying there's a chance?
So you're saying there's a chance?
Posted on 9/18/14 at 9:58 am to The Mick
quote:
This would make more sense since only 12% of 0-2 teams even make the playoffs much less win SB.
Which is a misleading stat since we started 0-2 on the road.
Brings that % up to 32%
Posted on 9/18/14 at 10:16 am to TigerBait1127
sorry if i'm pumping sunshine but sometimes --it happens. you lose close games at the end, and we haven't even been in the Dome yet.
when you lose a close one, you might point to a certain Brees pick or play we should have made, but it doesn't mean this unit sucks or that unit, etc. we've played good enough to win, but we just haven't
when you lose a close one, you might point to a certain Brees pick or play we should have made, but it doesn't mean this unit sucks or that unit, etc. we've played good enough to win, but we just haven't
Posted on 9/18/14 at 10:17 am to TigerBait1127
I hope they're predicting a massive Carolina collapse because there is ZERO chance that this team wins 3 road playoff games. They can't even beat the Browns on the road with all of their best skill position people out.
Posted on 9/18/14 at 10:19 am to lsutigers1992
We have to go undefeated at home and win two road games. Then, we are in the tournament and that is all that matters.
If we go 0-3, then I'll panic and say "frick it".
If we go 0-3, then I'll panic and say "frick it".
Posted on 9/18/14 at 10:21 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
We have to go undefeated at home and win two road games. Then, we are in the tournament and that is all that matters.
Yep and anything can happen in the playoffs
Posted on 9/18/14 at 10:22 am to The Mick
We are doomed. Greenie gave us his patent kiss of death by picking us to make it to the superbowl.
Posted on 9/18/14 at 10:25 am to The Mick
quote:
Saints are still 6/1 to win Superbowl, even after 0-2 start
This fails the smell test.
Posted on 9/18/14 at 10:27 am to BarbeTiger
quote:
Yep and anything can happen in the playoffs
The Giants went 9-7, needed a miracle to get in, and then won the whole thing. Arizona made it to the SB and they were 9-7 if I remember correctly.
Just make it in. Just win.
Posted on 9/18/14 at 11:29 am to The Mick
Well since we opened the season 18-1 and now are 20-1, this thread is non-sense...
Posted on 9/18/14 at 11:33 am to mattgr1983
quote:Depends on the site I guess. We are 18/1 RIGHT NOW on VegasInsider so your post is nonsensical rubbish shite.
Well since we opened the season 18-1 and now are 20-1, this thread is non-sense...
ps - preasason oddshark was 12/1, bleacher report 9/1, .....
This post was edited on 9/18/14 at 11:38 am
Posted on 9/18/14 at 11:43 am to The Mick
quote:
Depends on the site I guess. We are 18/1 RIGHT NOW on VegasInsider so your post is nonsensical rubbish shite.
ps - preasason oddshark was 12/1, bleacher report 9/1, .....
I guess I robbed the book when I got them at 20-1 preseason...
How does a reasonable person possibly think we are 6-1? Rubbish for brains...
Posted on 9/18/14 at 11:44 am to mattgr1983
quote:
I guess I robbed the book when I got them at 20-1 preseason...
We went from 20-1 before the draft to 9-1 after preseason
Posted on 9/18/14 at 11:48 am to chalmetteowl
quote:
we've played good enough to win, but we just haven't
IMO, the defense has not played well enough to win.
Posted on 9/18/14 at 11:50 am to mattgr1983
quote:I had never looked at it before, just repeating what Greenie said. Seemed strange at the time I heard it that our odds didn't change (according to him).
How does a reasonable person possibly think we are 6-1? Rubbish for brains...
Posted on 9/18/14 at 12:25 pm to The Mick
ESPN posted a Vegas Power Rankings the other day, which has the Saints tied at 5th. I don't gamble, so I'm not extremely familiar with some of the terminology, but it's still good to see that Vegas has some faith left in us. Interesting note about the home field advantages. I knew teams get -3 for playing at home, but I didn't know some teams get even more.
quote:
HOW TO READ THESE RATINGS
The ratings of two teams represent what the point spread should be if the two teams met on a neutral field. To compare to the current Vegas point spread, you adjust for home-field advantage.
The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as the Packers, Patriots and 49ers are typically given a full field goal while the Broncos and Saints are closer to 3.5. The Seahawks are often given 4 or 4.5, which puts our bettors' power ratings right around where the oddsmakers have the Seahawks and Broncos. We have them pick 'em on a neutral field, but with Seattle's home field, it puts it right around the current point spread of Seahawks minus-4.5. (Note: Some books are now up to 5, but that's not enough of a difference to warrant a play.)
Below is a look at the power ratings for all 32 NFL teams, along with three Week 3 games in which there appears to be value in the current lines. Again, these are not my personal plays or of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. I'll post my thoughts in the "Tuley's Take" column Friday.
quote:LINK
NFL Vegas Rankings
1 (tie). Seattle Seahawks (Power rating: 26)
Losing on the road usually doesn't drop a team too much, but losing as a 5-point road favorite does drop them a notch.
Previous rating: 26.5
1 (tie). Denver Broncos (26)
The Broncos are 2-0, but they're actually 0-2 against the spread as they let down bettors as 13.5-point favorites in their 24-17 win over the Chiefs.
Previous rating: 26
3 (tie). San Francisco 49ers (24)
Losing as a 7-point home favorite over the Bears on Sunday night drops them a full point, but that's still third-best overall.
Previous rating: 25
3 (tie). New England Patriots (24)
The Patriots took care of business as 3-point favorites with a 30-7 rout of the Vikings, but they don't get upgraded here.
Previous rating: 24
5 (tie). Green Bay Packers (23.5)
The Packers rallied to beat the Jets 31-24 to push on a closing number of minus-7, but are downgraded a notch on their subpar performance.
Previous rating: 24
5 (tie). Cincinnati Bengals (23.5)
Their dominant 24-10 win over the Falcons as 5.5-point favorites help them continue their rise in the rankings and ratings.
Previous rating: 23
5 (tie). New Orleans Saints (23.5)
The Saints drop again with a 26-24 loss at Cleveland as 5.5-point favorites; the only thing keeping them high up in the rankings is that both losses were on the road.
Previous rating: 24.5
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