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Update: Jennings was never higher than 7th in SEC Passer Rating (RAT)

Posted on 9/13/14 at 8:21 am
Posted by Quid Pro Quo
SEC
Member since Dec 2013
541 posts
Posted on 9/13/14 at 8:21 am
9/14 Updated by cfbstats:

Jennings' best performance in game 2 was not eligible for a Passer Rating (RAT) because he had only 13 Attempts. The NCAA minimum is 15 passing attempts per game for a Passer, any Passer to receive a Passer Rating (RAT) for a game. ESPN computes their Passer Rating (RAT) and the broader QBR rating which includes running, passing, strength of defense, home or away, SOS, and many other variables using a 20 action play per game minimum to include running and passing quarterbacks and teams using 2 or more quarterbacks.

Note: To qualify, player must have played in 75% of his team's games and have a minimum of 15.0 pass attempts per game played. (posted at bottom of Rating Chart)

Shutouts by big margins are important and generate headlines: LSU has first consecutive shutouts since 1985 (Ole Miss and Kentucky) was in the news.


prior to Game 3:

Kenny Hill has the highest QB Rating (QBR) in the SEC at 93.9 (3rd in the nation) which you would expect since he has the highest overall stats, followed by ALA (Sims 90.0) and AUB (Marshall 80.1). 93.9 is a very high QBR and it means he should win essentially every game he starts. Brandon Harris who is not reported due to limited playing time has the highest you can get at 99.7 with 100 being perfect. The QBR means a given QB would be expected to win that percentage of games he played. 99.7 means that based on Harris's performance in the SHSU game he would be expected to win all of the games he played. It is too small a sample to say that and 2 weeks is too small of a sample for Jennings who has fluctuated wildly.

Jennings is 4th in QBR (77.3) in the SEC and 24th in the nation after 2 games. After the Wisconsin game he had a raw QB rating of 31.9 and an adjusted QB Rating of 52, good for 71st in the nation. So after one game he was near the bottom of the SEC.

As for the RAT or Passer Rating that generated the claim that Jennings had the best QB Rating in the SEC, Brandon Harris actually has a 250 to Jennings 201 so Jennings does not even have the best RAT Passer Rating on the LSU team.

The Ratings QBR and RAT (Passer Rating) can fluctuate with good and bad games and against easy or ranked opponents. And, since college football has imbalanced schedules, QBR adjusts for defenses faced vs RAW QBR that does not.

The scale of QBR is from zero to 100, where 50 is average. Top quarterbacks are in the upper 80s and 90s for an entire season.

Baylor's Russell and Petty are ranked one and four nationally at QBR 96.2 and 93.4. But other than Oklahoma and Kansas St they currently only 2 ranked opponents and don't play any SEC schools.

Jameis Winston ranked first with QBR of 89.4 for 2013. Mett ranked 6th with 85.7 and Nick Marshall ranked 12th with 81.9.

Manziel for example ranked first in QBR in 2012 with a value of 90.5. His unadjusted value was 86.4, also the best among FBS schools. The increase from unadjusted to adjusted reflects that he did face good defenses overall. A&M won 85% of their games so their QBR was a good barometer.

Bottom line: The QBR accounts for everything a QB does, when he does it, how he manages the clock, if he fumbles, has INTs, TDs, third down conversion percentage, and heavy emphasis on running ability, if he gets penalties, or draws the other team off sides, literally every play is weighted as are the strength of opponents and especially the 4 Qtr strength of their defense. Regarding Kenny Hill, he ran an up tempo spread offense that broke all of JFF's records in one game. In that game he ran 99 plays without having one false start penalty or INT.

It is often said that winning the turnover battle usually means you win the game. Winning the turnover battle in college football wins 73 percent of games. Winning the QBR battle wins 85 percent of the games. So QBR correlates to overall quarterback play and winning.


The NFL notices the QBR raw and adjusted because good QBs can end up playing weak SOS in lesser divisions and conferences.

Baylor and BYU want to win out by huge margins and shutouts whenever possible because they have weak SOS. Running up points on a team may seem brutal when it is an FCS school but it shows up in your key stats: Passing Yds, Rushing Yds, Pts For, Pts Against which along with won/loss and SOS influences the playoff committee. Shutouts by big margins are important and generate headlines: LSU has first consecutive shutouts since 1985 (Ole Miss and Kentucky was in the news.
This post was edited on 9/17/14 at 10:28 am
Posted by hg
Member since Jun 2009
123616 posts
Posted on 9/13/14 at 8:22 am to
K
Posted by jmarto1
Houma, LA/ Las Vegas, NV
Member since Mar 2008
33923 posts
Posted on 9/13/14 at 8:31 am to
quote:

Running up points on a team may seem brutal when it is an FCS school but it shows up in your key stats:


Style points are definitely back in the new system with a committee picking the playoff. I don't see why they just don't have a playoff with conference champions.
Posted by Prominentwon
LSU, McNeese St. Fan
Member since Jan 2005
93714 posts
Posted on 9/13/14 at 8:31 am to
This board wants Harris to look better than Jennings so bad, posters are taking sub categories that actually mean nothing and tossing those numbers around. I've never heard of RAT until now.

This board will always find some way or another to make their argument seem legit as if the sub category of a sub category of a sub category is relevant.
Posted by Dr. Shultz
Baton Rouge, La
Member since Jun 2013
6391 posts
Posted on 9/13/14 at 8:45 am to
Dude..

QBR is a MADE UP statistic that ESPN created so they could justify why Tim tebow was good. It takes into context random facts like running and 4th quarter production and shite.

Don't use that stupid arse stat ever
Posted by Shenanigans
Spring Hill, TN
Member since Nov 2012
2394 posts
Posted on 9/13/14 at 8:52 am to
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164115 posts
Posted on 9/13/14 at 9:10 am to
Lol stfu

Harris has thrown 5 passes.
Posted by harry coleman beast
Left Field
Member since Aug 2008
52210 posts
Posted on 9/13/14 at 9:12 am to
quote:

Lol stfu


Harris has thrown 5 passes.


This. Its sad how bad LSU fans want Jennings to fail.
Posted by TopsInAmericaTim
Houston Area
Member since Oct 2011
1403 posts
Posted on 9/13/14 at 9:18 am to
Great post and amazing work. Insert my 3 days of research and 10,000 word response here.
Posted by LSUButt
Lowcountry
Member since Jan 2006
14930 posts
Posted on 9/13/14 at 9:21 am to
How has Jennings fluctuated wildly? You know what's really crazy? Is how long it took this guy to come up with these facts and stuff to prove the point Harris is better
Posted by Navytiger74
Member since Oct 2009
50458 posts
Posted on 9/13/14 at 9:36 am to
quote:

Brandon Harris actually has a 250 to Jennings 201 so Jennings does not even have the best RAT Passer Rating on the LSU team.


Still the backup. Get used to it.
Posted by boxcar willie
kenner
Member since Mar 2011
16035 posts
Posted on 9/13/14 at 9:45 am to
no thank you. That's just a made up espn rating not the real official QB rating system that was used yesterday thread. You need to correct your misleading thread title
This post was edited on 9/13/14 at 9:46 am
Posted by philter
Member since Dec 2004
8966 posts
Posted on 9/13/14 at 9:50 am to
QBR is proprietary and the full measuring system is secret. Until that becomes public and open, it will never be taken seriously.

While I'm on the subject, please list historical QBR for current NFL QBs if you want this thread to be taken seriously.
Posted by philter
Member since Dec 2004
8966 posts
Posted on 9/13/14 at 9:52 am to
quote:

While I'm on the subject, please list historical QBR for current NFL QBs if you want this thread to be taken seriously.



Other than Tebow being rated higher than Aaron Rodgers I mean.
Posted by itig19
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2008
410 posts
Posted on 9/13/14 at 10:07 am to
quote:

Style points are definitely back in the new system with a committee picking the playoff. I don't see why they just don't have a playoff with conference champions.


I'm pretty sure because there are some conferences that are definitively weaker than others. The top 2 in the SEC are most likely a little better draw than the top MAC team.

Posted by Catt
Lake Charles
Member since Oct 2007
224 posts
Posted on 9/13/14 at 10:24 am to
There is only one statistic that matters & it's found on the score board!
Posted by Quid Pro Quo
SEC
Member since Dec 2013
541 posts
Posted on 9/14/14 at 2:01 am to
quote:

Dude..

QBR is a MADE UP statistic that ESPN created so they could justify why Tim tebow was good. It takes into context random facts like running and 4th quarter production and shite.

Don't use that stupid arse stat ever


All for Tim Tebow. You seem to know so much about QBR.

You should start your own thread titled "QBR: ESPN's MADE UP statistic, Don't use that stupid arse stat ever".

You can stick with your 1973 Passer Rating metric and discount all other relevant metrics that Heisman and Playoff Committees consider and factors such as running (important for our Dual-Threat QBs), score differential, SOS, defense and all those "random facts like running and 4th quarter production and shite."

Thank you for your helpful post, Dr. Schulz.

This post was edited on 9/14/14 at 1:31 pm
Posted by SabiDojo
Open to any suggestions.
Member since Nov 2010
83929 posts
Posted on 9/14/14 at 2:02 am to
Jennings >>>>>> Hill
Posted by TN Bhoy
San Antonio, TX
Member since Apr 2010
60589 posts
Posted on 9/14/14 at 2:03 am to
quote:

My, you are a vitriolic little "Dude" now aren't you. Do you get your knickers in a twist and spout inane drivel to bloviate and impress yourself with your lack of civility? You could start you own little thread titled "QBR: ESPN's MADE UP statistic, Don't use that stupid arse stat ever". I am sure it would be informative about "random facts like running and 4th quarter production and shite." Meanwhile either add something of merit or get off my lawn.



I think someone's mad and thinks they're much smarter than they actually are.
Posted by RadTiger
Member since Oct 2013
1121 posts
Posted on 9/14/14 at 2:04 am to
quote:

My, you are a vitriolic little "Dude" now aren't you. Do you get your knickers in a twist and spout inane drivel to bloviate and impress yourself with your lack of civility? You could start you own little thread titled "QBR: ESPN's MADE UP statistic, Don't use that stupid arse stat ever". I am sure it would be informative about "random facts like running and 4th quarter production and shite." Meanwhile either add something of merit or get off my lawn.


*your
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