HUMOR: "30 Reasons Not to Worry About a Stock Market Crash"

quote:

---

1. Stocks have been a terrific investment in the past. Therefore, they are a terrific investment now.

2. Yes, stocks look expensive compared with annual sales, net asset values, gross domestic product, the replacement cost of company assets, and the average earnings of the past 10 years. But none of that matters because valuation measures are completely irrelevant.

3. Even if valuations were relevant, well, those old-fashioned metrics don’t matter much anymore anyhow. That’s because people used them back in Olden Times, when stockbrokers wore mutton-chop whiskers and cycled to work on penny-farthings. Today we have cars, airplanes, even Facebook! Ergo, it is no longer relevant to compare stock prices to, say, net asset values.

4. The true value of the stock market is 1.2 x P, where P is the current price of the stock market.

5. You bears “just don’t get it.”

6. Stocks were cheap five years ago. Therefore they are cheap now.

7. The S&P 500 is almost three times as high today as it was in 2009. Therefore it must be three times as good a deal!

8. Companies aren’t wasting their money paying out lots of dividends to investors. Back in the past, an investor who bought $100 worth of stock got back, on average, about $5 in dividends in the first year alone. Today that figure is less than $2. But that doesn’t mean you’re going to earn three percentage points less! Oh no! It means your growth is going to be even better!

9. Never bet against America. We’re number one. And anything that’s good for America is good for the stock market.

10. Inflation is low. And that’s great for stocks. Like it was in, say, 1929, when inflation actually turned negative. And like it was a decade ago.

11. People who aren’t bullish are losers and sissies.

12. Unemployment is falling. Low unemployment is great for stocks, as it was in, say, 1929 and 1999. On the other hand, high unemployment is terrible for stocks. That’s why it was such a bad idea to buy stocks in 1932, 1982 and 2009.

13. Stocks will earn 10% a year in the future, because they have in the past.

14. Why are skeptics so negative? Why do they hate freedom?

15. The economy is so productive, thanks to the Interwebs, Facebook, Twitter, iPhones and so forth, and that’s great for stocks. Why, so far this millennium the U.S. economy has grown at an average rate of 2% a year plus inflation. Last century, from 1929 to 1999, it only managed…er…4% a year plus inflation.

16. U.S.A.! U.S.A.! U.S.A.!

17. Everybody on Wall Street says this is a great time to buy stocks, and if they don’t know, who does?

18. Consumer confidence is getting better, just as it was in the late 1990s. That has to be good for stocks!

19. The economy is picking up, but that’s not going to lead to higher costs or rising interest rates.

20. Mom and Pop are back in the stock market, and millions of ordinary investors can’t be wrong.

21. People are starting to swap stock tips again. That has to be good news, too!

22. We’re Number One!

23. Stocks have never been a bad investment for more than a few years.

24. Yes, stocks have been a bad investment for most of the past 20 years, but that just means they’re “due.”

25. Yes, stocks were a disaster in the 1930s and in the 1970s, but that can’t happen again, because back then they didn’t have iPhones.

26. The iPhone 6 is about to come out.

27. “Oh, say, can you seeeee…”

28. Bond yields are really low. That means stocks are a good deal. But it doesn’t mean the economy is going to get worse.

29. If stock prices over the past 40 years have gone from an average of 8 times earnings to 16 times earnings, then over the next 40 years they can go from 16 times earnings to 32 times.

30. People who know nothing whatsoever about stocks are starting to hand out stock tips again—and if that isn’t good news, I don’t know what is.

Yes, indeed. I have learned to love Bull Brother.

Brett Arends is a MarketWatch columnist. Follow him on Twitter @BrettArends.

---