Sev09's football computer rankings - 2013 season (X-Post from the SECr)

Hey guys,

Being the computer/stats geek that I am, I decided to come up with my own objective rankings of college football teams.

Here are the results of my logic applied to the final stats of the 2013 season. I will be posting these computer rankings each week starting in week 6 of the 2014 season.

Let me know what you think - maybe I can tweak some things for accuracy. I'll answer any questions as well.

quote:

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What's your formula?

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It's both simple and complicated at the same time. I'll start at the most granular level.

1.) Compute Rushing Power and Passing Power of each team. These are each calculated using important stats such as passing yards, completion %, Passing TDs, rushing yards, rushing tds, etc. MINUS interceptions and fumbles lost, times a multiplier, for passing and rushing power, respectively.

2.) Calculated average of Rushing and Passing Power to calculate Offense Power Index (OPI).

3.) Calculate Oppositions' rushing and passing power against, which measures the teams Defense Power Index.

4.) Defense Power Index (DPI) is then adjusted with additional considerations such as sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles, TFL, etc. for a small addition of "Defense Style Points". This correction takes into consideration the "eyeball test" and other physicality stats. After this correction, the DPI and OPI of the best teams are around 90-100 in either category, depending on their strengths.

5.) Power Index (PI) is then calculated as an average of the OPI and DPI. There are also certain measures in place, for example: If a team has a DPI of over 90, the DPI will be weighted more heavily in the PI calculation, since that is an outstanding number. Vice Versa for OPI > 90.

6.) After these detailed calculations, sort the teams by wins (descending), losses (ascending), and PI (descending).

7.) Then, I rank the conference's SOS by calculating the average ranking per conference, and assign relative Win/Loss multipliers.

8.) These Win/Loss multipliers are then applied to each teams' WL record.

9.) FINALLY, the final rankings are calculated as [Adjusted Wins] * (1 + (0.01*[PI]), descending.

These detailed calculations account for a team's true strength and capabilities. In theory, of course. I can't wait to see the results.

Click HERE for much more detailed rankings, with mentioned Power Indexes, etc.