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Started By
Message
Saints are Good at Drafting?
Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:58 am
Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:58 am
LINK
Question:
Answer:
The clincher:
But someone keeps telling me the Saints suck at drafting under Loomis.
As far as 2nd rounders go, I'd put up Charlie Brown in the same breath as Ellis as far as not leaving up to his potential(but without the flashes). Still he did start 24 games in his time here.
Question:
quote:
With the benefit of hindsight, what are the worst 2-3 draft picks you’ve seen since since you started covering the team?
Answer:
quote:
A great question. And it made me realize that the Saints have done a pretty outstanding job of avoiding any major draft busts over the past nine years. (I started covering them before the 2005, draft, so I wasn’t around for Johnathan Sullivan).
The closest they’ve come to a first-round bust was defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis in 2008, since that was one of the few years they had a crack at a top-10 pick – and they actually traded up three spots to No. 7 to get him. But Ellis wasn’t a total flop. He showed some nice potential during his first three years and was a full-time starter during New Orleans’ Super Bowl season, so it’s hard to complain. He just never delivered any further on that potential.
quote:
The other bad picks that stand out were the mid-round guys that didn’t even make the roster. The Saints traded up to get running back Antonio Pittman in the fourth round in 2007, and he failed to beat out some undrafted free agent that year (you may have heard of him – Pierre Thomas).
Guard Andy Alleman, a third-round pick in 2007, never played for the Saints but did last a couple years with some other teams. The same with defensive tackle Al Woods, a fourth-round pick in 2010 who is still in the league.
Neither of the Saints’ third-rounders in 2011 panned out like the Saints hoped – linebacker Martez Wilson and cornerback Johnny Patrick. Fourth-rounders Chip Vaughn and Stanley Arnoux in 2009 both flamed out, partly due to injury. The 2005 draft beyond first-rounder Jammal Brown was a total bust.
The clincher:
quote:
All in all, though, there have been way more hits than misses.
But someone keeps telling me the Saints suck at drafting under Loomis.
As far as 2nd rounders go, I'd put up Charlie Brown in the same breath as Ellis as far as not leaving up to his potential(but without the flashes). Still he did start 24 games in his time here.
This post was edited on 4/27/14 at 11:01 am
4
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:01 am to bonethug0108
quote:
But someone keeps telling me the Saints suck at drafting under Loomis.
Are you talking about me?
I say we have sucked at drafting defensive players under him. Do you really want to go there?
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:01 am to bonethug0108
There's an inherit gamble w drafting that will never go away completely. You have to draft players to fits lads of schemes and our schemes have changed several times on D past 9 yrs
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:02 am to bonethug0108
quote:Sorry, I'll drop the issue.
But someone keeps telling me the Saints suck at drafting under Loomis.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:10 am to Lester Earl
02
James Allen 3rd round. Played 4 seasons. Terrible
Keyou Craver 4th round. played 2 seasons. terrible
Mel Mitchell 5th round. played 4 seasons. Terrible
03
Jonathan Sullivan 1st round.
Cie Grant 3rd round. Terrible
Melvin Williams 5th round. terrible
04
Will Smith 1st. good pick
Courtney Watson 2nd round. Terrible
Rodney Leslie 5th round. terrible
05
Josh Bullocks 2nd round. terrible
Alfred Fincher 3rd round. Terrible
Jason Jefferson 6th round terrible
Jimmy Verdon 7th round terrible
06
Roman Harper 2nd round. decent value
Rob Ninkovich 5th round. Lasted 1 year in our system. Who cut him?
Josh Lay 6th round. Has yet to play in an NFL game
07
Usama Young 3rd Rd. OK for what he was.
David Jones 5th round. didnt even make our team
Marvin Mitchell 7th nice value
08
Sedrick Ellis 1st. Had some flashes, but overall terrible value
Tracey Porter 2nd- SB hero
Demarrio Pressley 5th terrible
09
Malcom Jenkins 1st bad value
Chip Vaughn 4th terrible
Stanley ARnoux terrible
10
Pat Robinson jury's out. Hasnt been good
Al Woods 4th. didnt even make team
11
Cam jordan 1st
Martez Wilson 3rd terrible terrible
johnny patrick 3rd terrible
Greg Romeus 7th nothing
Nate Bussey 7th nothign
James Allen 3rd round. Played 4 seasons. Terrible
Keyou Craver 4th round. played 2 seasons. terrible
Mel Mitchell 5th round. played 4 seasons. Terrible
03
Jonathan Sullivan 1st round.
Cie Grant 3rd round. Terrible
Melvin Williams 5th round. terrible
04
Will Smith 1st. good pick
Courtney Watson 2nd round. Terrible
Rodney Leslie 5th round. terrible
05
Josh Bullocks 2nd round. terrible
Alfred Fincher 3rd round. Terrible
Jason Jefferson 6th round terrible
Jimmy Verdon 7th round terrible
06
Roman Harper 2nd round. decent value
Rob Ninkovich 5th round. Lasted 1 year in our system. Who cut him?
Josh Lay 6th round. Has yet to play in an NFL game
07
Usama Young 3rd Rd. OK for what he was.
David Jones 5th round. didnt even make our team
Marvin Mitchell 7th nice value
08
Sedrick Ellis 1st. Had some flashes, but overall terrible value
Tracey Porter 2nd- SB hero
Demarrio Pressley 5th terrible
09
Malcom Jenkins 1st bad value
Chip Vaughn 4th terrible
Stanley ARnoux terrible
10
Pat Robinson jury's out. Hasnt been good
Al Woods 4th. didnt even make team
11
Cam jordan 1st
Martez Wilson 3rd terrible terrible
johnny patrick 3rd terrible
Greg Romeus 7th nothing
Nate Bussey 7th nothign
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:20 am to Hoodoo Man
quote:Thank you.
Sorry, I'll drop the issue.
And yeah that's a great point Chad. Our offensive scheme has remaining largely the same because that's Payton's baby.
But we've had 4 D coordinators over 8 drafts. And it's not only the drafts but also FA.
Bunkley, Hawthorne, and Lofton were signed to play under Spags' scheme.
GW seemed to do a piss poor job at identifying guys to fit his scheme. He brought in guys like Shaun Rogers and Aubrayo Franklin which really went against what he did. Who knows why he kept Shanle around(and the one thing I appreciate Spags for was benching his arse) because he didn't work for what we did.
Gibbs' conservative scheme didn't fit the personnel we had and was becoming outdated with the increase in passing. Jason David actually did fit his scheme to a degree(we ran some cover 2 under him) but Bullocks was so horrible he made David and Fred Thomas look far were than what they were(though David was still bad). GW ran a man scheme and David became a round peg in a square hole.
Ryan actually did a great job of taking these guys that GW and Spags brought in and adapting his scheme to fit the players. I think you saw that the problem has been mostly the schemes and not all the players that we have been adding(though yes some just didn't work).
So while some see bad defensive players being adding, Ryan saw guys that he could find a role for and make them effective.
This post was edited on 4/27/14 at 11:21 am
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:52 am to Chad504boy
It has little to do with schemes. Or these guys would have found homes elsewhere.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 12:16 pm to Lester Earl
I got into a drawn out discussion with Bones a few weeks ago on this topic. He doesn't look at value of the pick in determining if we made a bad pick.
The stats show the Saints are mediocre in the first 3 rounds and are the most efficient team in the league when picking rounds 4-7. When you look at overall starts by all drafted players, the Saints are in the bottom half of the league.
So, I don't know how anyone in their right mind can say we had more hits than misses. The numbers just don't back that up.
LINK
The numbers in the Link are from 2004-2013; so, the Payton regime might be a bit better because the 2004 and 2005 drafts weren't under his watch (however, we did get Will Smith and Devery Henderson in the 2004 draft).
The stats show the Saints are mediocre in the first 3 rounds and are the most efficient team in the league when picking rounds 4-7. When you look at overall starts by all drafted players, the Saints are in the bottom half of the league.
So, I don't know how anyone in their right mind can say we had more hits than misses. The numbers just don't back that up.
LINK
The numbers in the Link are from 2004-2013; so, the Payton regime might be a bit better because the 2004 and 2005 drafts weren't under his watch (however, we did get Will Smith and Devery Henderson in the 2004 draft).
This post was edited on 4/27/14 at 12:31 pm
Posted on 4/27/14 at 12:17 pm to Lester Earl
Lester, just for the sake of this conversation, which team would you consider to be successful at drafting?
Posted on 4/27/14 at 12:22 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Posted by Message Lester Earl Saints are Good at Drafting? It has little to do with schemes. Or these guys would have found homes elsewhere.
Some did and some didn't
Posted on 4/27/14 at 12:29 pm to Mr. Hangover
I would be interested to see how many of the 256 drafted player are contributors for the team that drafted them after 3 years. I would guess that percentage is in the teens.
*contibuting, not on the roster*
*contibuting, not on the roster*
Posted on 4/27/14 at 12:32 pm to Chad504boy
I don't blame Loomis for our poor defensive drafts, and I don't give him the credit for our recent successes. I think the scouting department has gotten better, and the defensive staff has a clearer vision of what we're building. Having better depth has also allowed us to not have to rely on projects to fill needs.
Lester wants to give him all the blame while giving him no credit. It's cognitive dissonance on his part.
Lester wants to give him all the blame while giving him no credit. It's cognitive dissonance on his part.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 12:38 pm to LSUSkip
That's a good question. I heard something like 3% of the players drafted this year will start. That puts things into perspective about how much the draft is for the future, and if you're looking to draft a starter at an important decision this year, you're likely going to have trouble.
Out of those 3%, how many are doing a good job? That's why I'm not worried about Atlanta.
Out of those 3%, how many are doing a good job? That's why I'm not worried about Atlanta.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 12:40 pm to Patrick O Rly
quote:
I don't blame Loomis for our poor defensive drafts,
I think that's a solid position to take. As aggressive as Payton is (which is a good thing), I find it hard to believe that Payton isn't calling all the shots.
Yeah, yeah I've seen all the propaganda about it's a community affair and Loomis makes the final call. I just don't believe it. Payton has been using picks to shore up the defense for years and a lot haven't worked out...he has listened to the wrong people in the past. He wasn't hired because of his great defensive mind!
Posted on 4/27/14 at 12:46 pm to adono
quote:
the Saints are mediocre in the first 3 rounds and are the most efficient team in the league when picking rounds 4-7
Because our offense, for the most part, is plug & play.
Defense is different. We've been terrible at finding talent
Posted on 4/27/14 at 12:49 pm to Patrick O Rly
quote:
That's why I'm not worried about Atlanta.
I read a good article yesterday on the economics of Atlanta moving up to get Clowney and it did a look back on the J. Jones deal. Cleveland didn't get crap out the picks but the writer showed the players the Browns could have gotten and there were 5 starters (Cam Jordon was one of them). Like he said, the Browns will be the Browns.
It looks like the Falcons will have to give up the 2014 #1, #2, and #4 and 2015 #1 picks to move up to get the first pick. I hope they do it.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 12:51 pm to adono
Me too, because as nice as pass rushers are, even the elite ones can be neutralized with some creative game planning, and I can almost say for certain that he's not going to be elite right off the bat.
This post was edited on 4/27/14 at 12:56 pm
Posted on 4/27/14 at 12:55 pm to Lester Earl
A huge part of the problem is you're expecting all these late round picks to turn into something more than special teamers. In the league, how many starters on defense come from the 4th round or later? 5th round or later?
Also, some of these guys were standout special teamers, and others had their careers ruined by injuries.
And it's obvious that once Payton got here the quality improved tremendously. Haslett was very poor at identifying the players that would work for what he did and/or players that had more than just size and speed(talent is way more important).
That's why we have the term Haslett pick. When you pick a guy because of his measurables regardless of his talent, you are going to fail more often than not. All of these guys that make it in the league are good and size and speed only get you so far without talent to back it up.
Looking at the Payton drafts after round 2 on defense(because no one in rounds 1 or 2 were misses despite whether they ever fully panned out) you have:
3 good picks to 1 decent pick to 2 bad picks in round 3. Win.
0 good picks to 2 bad picks in round 4. Lose but that's a small sample size, especially with 2 injured players.
1 good pick to 1 good pick for someone else to 2 bad picks in round 5. About a push leaning to negative. Also a great example of scheme and opportunity making a difference.
1 unknown pick and 1 bad pick in round 6. Won't know until we see if Johnson can play. Also expected for 6th rounders.
1 decent pick to 2 bad picks in round 7.
Now I believe in splitting the draft into 1-3 and 4-7 because that's where the talent pool starts getting shallow. You're lucky to find more than a special teamer and part time role player after round 3.
So in that sense, we have done poorly finding guys in 4-7 but it's not an unexpected result. The final tallies for 4-7 are 1 good pick, 1 good pick we let go too soon/didn't give enough chance, 1 decent pick, 1 unknown pick, and 7 bad picks.
Now here's where we are money.
2 great picks to 2 good picks to 1 unknown pick(1 good and 1 bad year) to 0 bad picks in round 1.
2 good picks in round 2.
Now add back in round 3(which actually lowers the grade) and you have 2 great picks, 7 good picks, 1 decent pick, 1 unknown pick, and 2 bad picks in rounds 1-3.
That is great drafting in round 1-3.
Now add it all up and you have 2 great picks, 8 good picks, 1 good pick we let go, 2 decent picks, 2 unknown picks, and 9 bad picks.
Overall we are batting better than .500 and almost all of our misses come after the 3rd round where the talent level falls off.
So yeah, we suck at finding late round gems on defense but we do NOT suck at drafting defense.
Also, some of these guys were standout special teamers, and others had their careers ruined by injuries.
And it's obvious that once Payton got here the quality improved tremendously. Haslett was very poor at identifying the players that would work for what he did and/or players that had more than just size and speed(talent is way more important).
That's why we have the term Haslett pick. When you pick a guy because of his measurables regardless of his talent, you are going to fail more often than not. All of these guys that make it in the league are good and size and speed only get you so far without talent to back it up.
Looking at the Payton drafts after round 2 on defense(because no one in rounds 1 or 2 were misses despite whether they ever fully panned out) you have:
3 good picks to 1 decent pick to 2 bad picks in round 3. Win.
0 good picks to 2 bad picks in round 4. Lose but that's a small sample size, especially with 2 injured players.
1 good pick to 1 good pick for someone else to 2 bad picks in round 5. About a push leaning to negative. Also a great example of scheme and opportunity making a difference.
1 unknown pick and 1 bad pick in round 6. Won't know until we see if Johnson can play. Also expected for 6th rounders.
1 decent pick to 2 bad picks in round 7.
Now I believe in splitting the draft into 1-3 and 4-7 because that's where the talent pool starts getting shallow. You're lucky to find more than a special teamer and part time role player after round 3.
So in that sense, we have done poorly finding guys in 4-7 but it's not an unexpected result. The final tallies for 4-7 are 1 good pick, 1 good pick we let go too soon/didn't give enough chance, 1 decent pick, 1 unknown pick, and 7 bad picks.
Now here's where we are money.
2 great picks to 2 good picks to 1 unknown pick(1 good and 1 bad year) to 0 bad picks in round 1.
2 good picks in round 2.
Now add back in round 3(which actually lowers the grade) and you have 2 great picks, 7 good picks, 1 decent pick, 1 unknown pick, and 2 bad picks in rounds 1-3.
That is great drafting in round 1-3.
Now add it all up and you have 2 great picks, 8 good picks, 1 good pick we let go, 2 decent picks, 2 unknown picks, and 9 bad picks.
Overall we are batting better than .500 and almost all of our misses come after the 3rd round where the talent level falls off.
So yeah, we suck at finding late round gems on defense but we do NOT suck at drafting defense.
This post was edited on 4/27/14 at 1:09 pm
Posted on 4/27/14 at 12:59 pm to adono
quote:I do but that wasn't the discussion we were having in the other thread.
He doesn't look at value of the pick in determining if we made a bad pick.
I was talking originally about the myth that we ALWAYS find late round gems on the OL.
I think when you looked at what I presented it showed that we ALWAYS find good talent in rounds 1-3, but while we do hit on guys later(all on offense) we also miss on guys so it isn't near automatic like the first 3 rounds.
This post was edited on 4/27/14 at 1:00 pm
Posted on 4/27/14 at 1:03 pm to adono
quote:You missed the VERY important fact that we also had the least amount of picks overall in the draft, an the second least in rounds 1-3 where you find almost all of your starters.
When you look at overall starts by all drafted players, the Saints are in the bottom half of the league.
Looking at starts per pick we are ranked 2nd to ONLY the Chargers.
THAT is great drafting.
Our bigger issue is hanging on to our god damn draft picks.
This post was edited on 4/27/14 at 1:04 pm
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