Where do you see o&g headed in the future? | TigerDroppings.com

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TheIndulger
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2011
11342 posts

Where do you see o&g headed in the future?



Do you see the future of the industry being predominately unconventional shale, or conventional offshore drilling? Or another way to look at it, in which would you invest your money or career long term if faced with the choice?

Might be a vague question but just looking for some opinions.







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raw dog
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2011
329 posts

re: Where do you see o&g headed in the future?


Infrastructure - mid-term
Deepwater - long-term



This post was edited on 3/12 at 7:42 pm


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Reubaltaich
USA Fan
A nation under duress
Member since Jun 2006
2756 posts

re: Where do you see o&g headed in the future?


I am not in the O&G industry but this guy from BP seems to believe the future in O&G is 'North' as in the Artic.

quote:

In conclusion, deepwater exploration has legs yet. Underpinning it will be ever improved and cheaper seismic data: seeing beneath shallow gas, salt and basalt, and allowing the mapping and de-risking through porosity and fluid indicators. However, with the elevated activity levels of the past few years, a decline in success rates is inevitable, and the discovery of new plays ever more difficult.

So where will industry go? Not west….but North

The ice-bound continental shelf and slope of the artic remains largely unexplored (see slide 7 of the slide pack). Yet 10% (19) of the world’s rivers discharge into the arctic and some have formed huge Tertiary delta systems, well known in front of the Canadian Mackenzie, Russian Lena and other rivers. But even more importantly the prolific West Siberian and Timan Pechora basins plunge northwards below the ice and water of the Kara Sea.




LINK






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jimbeam
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Member since Oct 2011
33647 posts
 Online 

re: Where do you see o&g headed in the future?


quote:

the Artic.
shite






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JayDeerTay84
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Texas
Member since May 2013
2244 posts

re: Where do you see o&g headed in the future?


America's are the emerging market for Oil & Gas.


This post was edited on 3/12 at 9:09 pm


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GREENHEAD22
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Member since Nov 2009
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re: Where do you see o&g headed in the future?


Deep water, first the east coast then west.





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lsugradman
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Sumatra, Indonesia
Member since Sep 2003
6250 posts

re: Where do you see o&g headed in the future?


Ehh the US East Coast doesnt really have the geologic components to be a hotbed of potential oil accumulations. The West Coast does but the politics on that side of the country are gonna make it nearly impossible to do business out there.





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HuntFishMan
Member since Feb 2014
255 posts

re: Where do you see o&g headed in the future?


Eventually we'll really start running low and politics will give in because money always wins





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GREENHEAD22
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Member since Nov 2009
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re: Where do you see o&g headed in the future?


They are looking at the mid east coast as having potential big gas reserves. The west has the oil and eventually the politics will get pushed aside. These are both very long term predictions.





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redstick13
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Cameroon
Member since Feb 2007
22457 posts

re: Where do you see o&g headed in the future?


quote:

Ehh the US East Coast doesnt really have the geologic components to be a hotbed of potential oil accumulations. The West Coast does but the politics on that side of the country are gonna make it nearly impossible to do business out there.



This. The hot beds will be locations with viable oil reserves. Niobrara will likely be the next that is developed in the US. We already have a glut of natural gas and consumption rates will only increase gradually.

California has an enormous unconventional oil play between LA and San Francisco but they will never allow it to be touched.

Deep water will continue as is.

The Artic will see an increase in activity, but nothing substantial.

If oil prices go high enough you may see interest in the green river formation.

US plays average much lower BOPD rates than most overseas plays. Except for deepwater GOM. So that means we need to invest much more heavily in infrastructure and drill many more wells to get the same production rates. For example I drilled one well recently that produces the equivalent of 10 Bakken or Eagle Ford wells (20 or more TMS wells).






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TH03
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Member since Dec 2008
98837 posts

re: Where do you see o&g headed in the future?


if they started drilling the Monterey Shale I'd go in a heartbeat





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redstick13
Wofford Fan
Cameroon
Member since Feb 2007
22457 posts

re: Where do you see o&g headed in the future?


quote:

if they started drilling the Monterey Shale I'd go in a heartbeat



I've driven through the area. There isn't much out there. It's mostly farming towns heavily populated with Hispanics. Crime rates through there are pretty bad.

Of course you'd only be a few hours from San Francisco and San Jose and that's a plus.






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TheIndulger
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2011
11342 posts

re: Where do you see o&g headed in the future?


quote:

This. The hot beds will be locations with viable oil reserves. Niobrara will likely be the next that is developed in the US. We already have a glut of natural gas and consumption rates will only increase gradually. California has an enormous unconventional oil play between LA and San Francisco but they will never allow it to be touched. Deep water will continue as is. The Artic will see an increase in activity, but nothing substantial. If oil prices go high enough you may see interest in the green river formation. US plays average much lower BOPD rates than most overseas plays. Except for deepwater GOM. So that means we need to invest much more heavily in infrastructure and drill many more wells to get the same production rates. For example I drilled one well recently that produces the equivalent of 10 Bakken or Eagle Ford wells (20 or more TMS wells).


Thanks for the reply..I think deepwater is here to stay as long as no more Macondo incidents happen. I am faced with the choice to work in either deepwater or unconventional, and it's a pretty tough decision.






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JL
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Member since Aug 2006
2326 posts

re: Where do you see o&g headed in the future?


Should be an easy decision, if you can do deepwater you can do anything on land. Not so much vise versa.





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lsugradman
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Sumatra, Indonesia
Member since Sep 2003
6250 posts

re: Where do you see o&g headed in the future?


The deepwater GOM is the most challenging arena in the world. I speak from experience. If you can survive in this high cost-high risk- high reward environment, you can work anywhere else in the world.





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TheIndulger
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2011
11342 posts

re: Where do you see o&g headed in the future?


quote:

Should be an easy decision, if you can do deepwater you can do anything on land. Not so much vise versa.


quote:

The deepwater GOM is the most challenging arena in the world. I speak from experience. If you can survive in this high cost-high risk- high reward environment, you can work anywhere else in the world.



These are the things I'm looking to hear..But the slow paced, lengthy deepwater projects are very different than the rapid fire unconventional game. Have any of you worked in both environments?






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lsugradman
USA Fan
Sumatra, Indonesia
Member since Sep 2003
6250 posts

re: Where do you see o&g headed in the future?


I have worked onshore (conventional), shelf (int'l), deepwater intl and Deepwater GOM. All good experiences but DW Gom is a whole nother world. The GOM in general is very complex and challenging and usually the testing ground for alot of technology.





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JL
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2006
2326 posts

re: Where do you see o&g headed in the future?


I've worked in Bakersfield, colorado, west texas doing cookie cutter unconventional type wells. This is good for learning the basics of the oilfield. I've worked deepwater GOM, overseas working land in the middle east and deepwater in africa. There are plenty of land wells in the US that are tricky and each area offers its different challenges. I'm not sure if you are trying to get into drilling and completions, production, geology, etc. but for D&C or production you can get plenty of great experience on the shelf or on land. I would try to see as many wells as possible starting out. After you get some experience transition into deepwater. It's more technically challenging and will make you more valuable.

I've worked all over the world in drilling. You can take any deepwater guy and throw them into an onshore or shelf situation no problem, would be a walk in the park for them. You take someone who has never been in deepwater and put them on a deepwater team, they will figure it out but there will need to be a steep learning curve to understand the equipment and tricks/strategies used when drilling with riser especially pertaining to well control.

I started in deepwater which was good to see, then went to land to just do well after well after well until it was second nature, then went back to deepwater. It's important to understand that everywhere you go you will have different challenges and learn something different. One of the posters above stated that deepwater GOM is the most challenging environment to work in, maybe from a geological standpoint. He has probably never had to tender all of his services thru a west african government, then try to get equipment in country, then manage logistics from one country to another country three days sail away by work boat because the country you are drilling in doesn't have a port, all while drilling deepwater wells that would rival most in the gulf.

When i was in bakersfield, we were drilling wells that most people would laugh at based on depth and casing design. You stick anybody from deepwater gom out there and they would need some training to understand how to handle drilling into steam pockets when working in an active steamflood.

If I were starting my career I would want to start on land and see as many wells drilled/completed or production from as many different wells as possible. This will get your feet wet and give you a basic understanding of how operations go. After getting pretty comfortable with that try to get to deepwater. Try to work in as many different areas as possible. I've never spent more than two years working any one field/state/country which has helped me see how tons of different operations are run and helped me grow in my career. Just my advice.

Also one thing to add, you don't see much H2S in deepwater. That adds another level of complexity to well design, facilities, production, operations.



This post was edited on 3/15 at 12:58 am


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cwill
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Jan 2005
25829 posts

re: Where do you see o&g headed in the future?


quote:

Niobrara will likely be the next that is developed in the US.


Very actively being developed by anadarko and noble. The leasing rush came and went. Basically old news at this point.

quote:

California has an enormous unconventional oil play between LA and San Francisco but they will never allow it to be touched.


Monterey shale...guess what several companies have been drilling. The problem is thermal immaturity - it doesn't work.

quote:

If oil prices go high enough you may see interest in the green river formation.


Doesn't work. Prices would have to go through the roof and even then...either shell or XOM gave up on trying to figure out how to extract and the other is still trying. Maybe tech gets there in nxt 20.

I don't know exactly what the OP is looking for but currently all the money is chasing unconventional. Deep water and international is for the majors. Trend for independents has been to sell international and concentrate on domestic core plays. I think the next big step is a lot of M&A work.






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cwill
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Jan 2005
25829 posts

re: Where do you see o&g headed in the future?


quote:

Posted by TH03 if they started drilling the Monterey Shale I'd go in a heartbeat


You've obv have never visited Bakersfield.






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