General NBA Links | Page 3 | TigerDroppings.com

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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5661 posts

re: General NBA Links


quote:

but that seems kind of silly


Oh I agree. They have to spend the money either way. It's also silly that they want competitive balance, yet have max contracts.

He might be overstating it, but it isn't far fetched to me. Especially with his breakdown of 20 yo in the draft

These guys all have tremendous egos. I don't think they liked the role reversal that LeBron blueprinted for other top players. A mere player was telling these very wealthy and successful men how it was going to be. That's not a familiar or comfortable place for most owners.






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42
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2012
3589 posts

re: General NBA Links


Max contracts are a big problem. Maybe big enough to be called THE problem. A team level and league level salary cap (and floor . . . hard or otherwise) should be in there, but a player-level cap should be eliminated.





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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5661 posts

re: General NBA Links


Yeah. I agree and disagree. It's a whole other topic, but I'm not in favor of parity in the NBA. And to me, that is different than leveling the playing field for teams to succeed our fail based on their own merits (and luck).

Interesting read on The Greek Freak and to play or not to play him more in a lost season. Similar to what we were asking about Davis last year.

LINK






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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5661 posts

re: General NBA Links


Also, this link is quite interesting on OKC and their "waves" of talent.

Gernane to the timeline discussion over on BSS I think

LINK






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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5661 posts

re: General NBA Links


DEEP cut on tanking and all the systemic issues that won't be fixed with a massive overhaul of the draft. Very thoughtful on big market/small market imbalance and the dangers of targeting "tanking" as a huge problem

LINK






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Galactic Inquisitor
LSU Fan
An Incredibly Distant Star
Member since Dec 2013
4689 posts

re: General NBA Links


quote:

Roberts is a trickier dilemma, but his presence (as noted in this article by Jason Calmes over at Bourbon Street Shots) takes opportunities away from Austin Rivers.


Legit

TM will be in shortly to call him condescending.






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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5661 posts

re: General NBA Links


The chip some have on their shoulder with him is silly.

He writes, for free and has invited people here to submit their own pieces, for a Pelicans blog and some are threatened by that. Whatever.

Sometimes, like almost everyone on here (myself included), he is a bit of dick.

But on the whole, he just wants to engage in serious discussion of the team. No problem for me at all






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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5661 posts

re: General NBA Links


Back on topic

Zach Lowe's weekly column. Must read

LINK






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Galactic Inquisitor
LSU Fan
An Incredibly Distant Star
Member since Dec 2013
4689 posts

re: General NBA Links


quote:

DEEP cut on tanking and all the systemic issues that won't be fixed with a massive overhaul of the draft. Very thoughtful on big market/small market imbalance and the dangers of targeting "tanking" as a huge problem

LINK


Fantastic article

quote:

Wheeling up the only part of the system that actually seems to favor the disadvantaged parties while leaving the rest untouched is pretty much a joke.

Considering tanking as part of the whole instead of an isolated problem allows us to see that removing the perceived "reward" for poor performance doesn't fix the system or balance it out. It all but engraves the already-existing imbalance in stone. All the reasons a team would want to tank--the ills of the environment--would be even worse in post-Wheel world. You got rid of the weed but poisoned the orchard. You'd get rid of tanking without touching any of the reasons people tank to begin with.






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Spitting Venom
USA Fan
Member since Sep 2013
590 posts

re: General NBA Links


quote:

corndeaux

You seem to know more about advanced stats than most. What's your opinion on PER, WARP, Win Shares, Hollinger's EWA? I usually only look at PER, but I'm not sure which of those statistics hold the most weight. Are WARP ratings flawed by defensive ratings? I think it's tough to throw defensive ratings into determining a player's efficiency/value because it seems so team & scheme reliant.

Pelton wrote an article ranking the Top 10 NBA players by the numbers. He compiled WARP, WS, and EWA data to rank the best players in the NBA. Anthony Davis was eighth on the list.
quote:

Gazing at this season's NBA cosmos has created more answers than questions. While it's clear that the stars of Kevin Durant and LeBron James shine the brightest, the order after them is subject to debate. Early in the season, Paul George looked like the league's third-best player. Then LaMarcus Aldridge took his turn. More recently, Blake Griffin seems to have attained that honor, but cases can be made for any number of players.

To help answer the question of who's next after Durant and James and rank the league's best players, let's take a look at this season's numbers, focusing on three measures of player value: my wins above replacement player (WARP), Basketball-Reference.com's win shares and John Hollinger's estimated wins added (EWA).


quote:

Besides Durant's dominance, a couple of things stand out. First, notice the consistent differences between the three stats. EWA values are the highest because replacement level is set lower than in WARP. Win shares don't explicitly use replacement level, but because credit for defense is divided equally among players on the same team, it has a smaller spread between the best players and the worst ones.

Perhaps the most interesting thing to note from the chart is how quickly talent levels off outside the top two to three players. For example, the difference in WARP between Durant and Anthony Davis (fifth, at 14.5) is larger than the gap between Davis and the 20th-best player. The top 10 is an arbitrary standard, and the difference between finishing eighth and 12th is mostly a matter of taste. So without further ado, here are the top 10:

quote:

8. Anthony Davis | New Orleans Pelicans

Though poor defensive numbers for Davis and the Pelicans as a team remain a concern, it's becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the way he's torching opponents at the other end of the floor. Within weeks of my suggesting Davis could eventually become a 30 PPG scorer, he's averaging 32.3 points in his past eight games (on 58.0 percent shooting) with six 30-point games in the past month. Even win shares, which reflect New Orleans' defensive woes, now has Davis as a top-10 player (he's fifth in both WARP and EWA).


I'm not going to post the write ups on the other players in the top 10, but here is the list:

10. James Harden
9. Paul George
8. Anthony Davis
7. Russell Westbrook
6. Blake Griffin
5. Stephen Curry
4. Chris Paul
3. Kevin Love
2. Lebron James
1. Kevin Durant

Honorable Mention - Aldridge, Bosh, Cousins, Dragic, Lowry, Howard, Noah, Dirk, Wade, Tony Parker, Melo






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Galactic Inquisitor
LSU Fan
An Incredibly Distant Star
Member since Dec 2013
4689 posts

re: General NBA Links


I like the SBNation draft lottery idea. Lottery actually decides 10-15 picks and every team is in the lottery. There are a few different ways you could try to allocate the odds, but none work out perfect.

I worked one out that gives the best team in the league a 1% shot. Each subsequent position has odds about 7.316% higher than the previous pick. The second best team's odds would be around 1.07316%. The odds for the 3 worst teams would end up being around 7.74883%, 7.22060%, and 6.72837%. There would have to be some rounding involved to get to a manageable number of balls






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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5661 posts

re: General NBA Links


Yeah. After reading the tanking piece and Zillers reforms, I like that much more than any fixed lottery or more radical solution.

Here is SI on Davis

Awesome read

LINK

And here's SBNation doing a retrospective on 90s ball. Here is their piece on Kemp/Payton Sonics

LINK

[ETA: 90s piece has a hub with lots of other goodies

LINK



This post was edited on 3/25 at 3:16 pm


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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5661 posts

re: General NBA Links


quote:

What's your opinion on PER, WARP, Win Shares, Hollinger's EWA?


I look at PER, WS, WS/48 (which includes a replacement level element), and WP/48 stats from Box Score Geeks. Not as familiar with EWA.

For me the key thing is none of these numbers are the holy grail. No one number can be that definitive, especially since defense is still such a mystery. They all do a nice job, but I hesitate to point to only one the same way I hesitate to only look at stats and not watch games. It's pieces of a whole for me.

Thanks for the link. Interesting to see how far ahead James/Durant rate and how highly Davis rates while playing on a terrible defense



This post was edited on 3/25 at 1:57 pm


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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5661 posts

re: General NBA Links


Last one today.

538 looks at steals and what they believe is their hidden value.

LINK

quote:

In fact, if you had to pick one statistic from the common box score to tell you as much as possible about whether a player helps or hurts his team, it isn’t how many points he scores. Nor how many rebounds he grabs. Nor how many assists he dishes out.

It’s how many steals he gets.

This phenomenon — that steals is one of the most informative stats in basketball — has important implications for how we think about sports data.




I'm not sold on this entirely. We've seen enough of Wade et al gambling and getting torched to say steals are that valuable. But there are some compelling reasons in the article for their importance







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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5661 posts

re: General NBA Links


Remember, no matter how much you hate Monty or Roberts or Gordon or all the injuries or whatever, the Pelicans are not the Knicks. Monty is not Mike Woodson. Gordon is not JR Smith. Davis is not Melo. We are not making up hilarious terms to describe our teams awfulness.

Read this, laugh, and be happy it's not New Orleans

LINK

quote:

I have a quibble with the way the term FARTDOG has spread. My quibble is: When people ask each other what FARTDOG stands for, the response is usually "Friendly Alliance of Really Terrible Defenders of Opposing Guards." While that sounds most correct, I insist that it should be "for," not "of". As we've discussed before, the Knicksdefense doesn't just permit opposing guards to go off, it promotes their efforts. It is a charitable organization, and it rarely fails to uplift.








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VOR
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
New Orleans
Member since Apr 2009
42426 posts

re: General NBA Links


quote:

For me the key thing is none of these numbers are the holy grail. No one number can be that definitive, especially since defense is still such a mystery. They all do a nice job, but I hesitate to point to only one the same way I hesitate to only look at stats and not watch games. It's pieces of a whole for me.


I agree.

I saw that same article and looked at the same stats as you guy. I have to admit, my head began to swim after a little while. I tried to leave stats back in grad school.






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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5661 posts

re: General NBA Links


I don't know shite about math.

I just read what these formulae are supposed to tell me and take it into consideration. Haven't the foggiest about the models or anything specific like that.

quote:

I hesitate to only look at stats and not watch games. It's pieces of a whole for me.


I would also say ignoring numbers and only trusting your eyes is just as dangerous. Use all the tools you can to form an opinion






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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5661 posts

re: General NBA Links


Early and interesting look at the effects of the CBA. This guy didn't paint a rosy picture for small markets

LINK

Phone isn't letting me copy and paste, but stuff on how the luxury tax rules hurt small market teams, how shorter vet contracts make it harder to keep players, and other goodies. Interesting take






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42
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2012
3589 posts

re: General NBA Links


As long as the tax rules allow one set of teams to outspend another to a degree that influences title allocation (like recently), then the tax rules are having thr opposite effect of what they are intended to do, which is level the NBA title chances to a degree while allowing spikes in spending to appease both players and fans.





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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5661 posts

re: General NBA Links


I wonder how it would look if they decreased/eliminated the repeater tax, but kept some of the same restrictions for teams over the cap.

Seeing just how many teams had gone above the tax line under the previous CBA was startling.






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