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re: NBA.com Blogtable: What to Make of the Pelicans
Posted on 10/24/13 at 10:38 am to PrimeTime Money
Posted on 10/24/13 at 10:38 am to PrimeTime Money
quote:
Any talk of HOF potential now is just extremely generous wishful thinking.
While you are right that he has to prove it, most GMs felt he was a once in a decade talent when he was drafted, so it's a little more than wishful thinking on our part. Thinking Austin Rivers can be a star player is wishful thinking.
0
Posted on 10/24/13 at 10:53 am to PrimeTime Money
quote:
He has not shown that he has HOF potential.
He isn't even a star player yet.
He's shown flashes that he has the potential to be a star player in the NBA.
He'd then have to continue playing fantastic basketball for several years before you can say he has HOF potential.
Any talk of HOF potential now is just extremely generous wishful thinking.
You're going full retard, Red Rocket.
Posted on 10/24/13 at 11:09 am to PrimeTime Money
quote:
Since 1979-80 and the start of the modern NBA era, six players aged 19 or younger produced more than 5 win shares in a season.(I.E. were worth more than 5 wins by that metric over the course of the season by themselves) The list? Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James . . . and Anthony Davis. That is a list Davis should already be proud to be a part of – but here’s the kicker – Anthony Davis is on that list while only playing 1846 minutes. Other than Bryant (who was also in his second NBA season) the rest of those guys played way more minutes. Here’s the chart:
Player Minutes Win Score Mins per Win
Anthony Davis 1846 6.1 303
Kobe Bryant 2056 6.3 326
Dwight Howard 2670 7.3 366
Chris Bosh 2510 6.2 405
Carmelo Anthony 2995 6.1 491
LeBron James 3122 5.1 612
So Anthony Davis not only hung with the big boy 19-year olds of the past, but he kinda pants’ed them. (Here’s a few more notable 19 year olds he outperformed: Kevin Garnett, Jermaine O’Neal, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Tony Parker, Tracy McGrady, Starbury, Josh Smith, Tyson Chandler, and the immortal Maciej Lampe. (Sorry, had to throw him in there. Anyone else remember Lampe? And yes, this is a double parenthetical. I’m that awesome.))
So what can we expect next season? If look at other 19-year old players, three players compare well enough to Anthony Davis, production wise: Chris Bosh, Dwight Howard, and Kevin Garnett.
Here are those three players, their 19-year old seasons, and their second season, normalized for 36 mintues.
TS% OR% DR% TR% TO% AST% STL% BLK% PTS
19 KG 52.2 9.1 17.0 13.1 12.1 10.6 1.9 4.4 13.1
20 KG 53.7 7.6 16.8 12.2 12.5 14.1 1.9 4.1 15.7
19 Bosh 51.3 8.7 16.9 12.8 11.3 5.8 1.3 3.1 12.3
20 Bosh 54.7 7.1 20.0 13.5 13.1 8.6 1.3 2.7 16.3
19 Howard 57.1 12.2 22.2 17.3 16.1 4.4 1.5 3.6 13.2
20 Howard 56.5 12.1 29.2 20.9 15.9 7.2 1.2 3.0 15.4
19 Skynet 55.9 10.5 23.5 16.8 10.3 6.1 2.2 5.1 16.9
Potential?
You are looking at potential meaning something like a greater than 50% chance. I'd have to say "potential" encompasses significantly lower likelihoods as well. I'd say Davis has--roughly--around 30-60% chance of becoming a HOF as of NOW. You obviously can't calculate that with any sort of accuracy, but if you remove injuries (the biggest negative towards his CHANCES of making the HOF being potential for injury) there is no way he doesn't have significant POTENTIAL to be a HOF.
We're arguing potential. You have to remember that. Potential can be taken subjectively all the way to meaning all that someone needs to be a POTENTIAL Hall of Famer is to sign with an NBA team. We're not arguing about someone who has enough of a stat base to say their potential for being a Hall of Famer is insignificant. From what he has shown, he is undoubtedly a POTENTIAL Hall of Famer. His ceiling is just too high to say otherwise.
Posted on 10/24/13 at 11:31 am to The Estimator
he has the potential to become a HOF'er, that's the notion EVERY GM said. Now he needs to increase his production and sustain it.
In 7 pre-season games, he is currently playing well. Of course some of the things like PPG and TO I don't expect to jump that much, but I can imagine the FG/FT%, AST, REB, BLK, and STL to be better than last year's.
I'll compare things, so those in () is last year's average:
22:30 MINS (28:50)
53.9 FG% (51.6%)
7.9/14.6 FG (5.5/10.6)
85.1 FT% (75.1%)
5.7/6.7 FT (2.6/3.5)
6.6 REB (8.2)
0.9 AST (1.0)
2.4 TO (1.4)
2.0 STL (1.2)
2.1 BLK (1.8)
21.4 PPG (13.5)
Giving him a per36 and last year's per36 in ()
10.6 REB (10.2)
1.44 AST (1.2)
3.84 TO (1.7)
3.2 STL (1.5)
3.4 BLK (2.2)
34.24 PPG (16.9)
In 7 pre-season games, he is currently playing well. Of course some of the things like PPG and TO I don't expect to jump that much, but I can imagine the FG/FT%, AST, REB, BLK, and STL to be better than last year's.
I'll compare things, so those in () is last year's average:
22:30 MINS (28:50)
53.9 FG% (51.6%)
7.9/14.6 FG (5.5/10.6)
85.1 FT% (75.1%)
5.7/6.7 FT (2.6/3.5)
6.6 REB (8.2)
0.9 AST (1.0)
2.4 TO (1.4)
2.0 STL (1.2)
2.1 BLK (1.8)
21.4 PPG (13.5)
Giving him a per36 and last year's per36 in ()
10.6 REB (10.2)
1.44 AST (1.2)
3.84 TO (1.7)
3.2 STL (1.5)
3.4 BLK (2.2)
34.24 PPG (16.9)
This post was edited on 10/24/13 at 11:34 am
Posted on 10/24/13 at 11:33 am to htran90
quote:
Giving him a per36 and last year's per36 in ()
10.6 REB (10.2)
1.44 AST (1.2)
3.84 TO (1.7)
3.2 STL (1.5)
3.4 BLK (2.2)
34.24 PPG (16.9)
Not sure of his star potential though.
Posted on 10/24/13 at 11:36 am to The Estimator
of course generally speaking, I'm sure he won't shoot the ball 23 times a game to get 30+ppg (although that would be sweet)
If he is healthy, I honestly think anything less than 18/10 would be disappointing.
If he is healthy, I honestly think anything less than 18/10 would be disappointing.
Posted on 10/24/13 at 2:20 pm to The Estimator
You guys are out of your mind. He's had one season in the NBA and you are already saying he's a potential HOF player.
He averaged 13.5 points a game last year and 8.2 rebounds.
Decent numbers, but come on. To say he's a potential hall of famer at this point is laughably ridiculous.
Could he end up making the hall of fame? Sure. But to even have a conversation about the hall of fame at this point in his career.. after one season in the NBA.. is remarkably stupid.
Potential doesn't = possible.
Also, using preseason stats as some kind of a benchmark is also out-of-this-world retarded.
He averaged 13.5 points a game last year and 8.2 rebounds.
Decent numbers, but come on. To say he's a potential hall of famer at this point is laughably ridiculous.
Could he end up making the hall of fame? Sure. But to even have a conversation about the hall of fame at this point in his career.. after one season in the NBA.. is remarkably stupid.
Potential doesn't = possible.
Also, using preseason stats as some kind of a benchmark is also out-of-this-world retarded.
Posted on 10/24/13 at 2:57 pm to PrimeTime Money
Posted on 10/24/13 at 3:00 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:
Could he end up making the hall of fame? Sure.
quote:
Potential doesn't = possible.
Posted on 10/24/13 at 3:04 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:
PrimeTime Money
You are either a huge troll or a huge moron. I hope for your sake you're trolling.
Posted on 10/24/13 at 3:26 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:
PrimeTime Money
no one thinks his pre-season stats are an indicator that he is going to be a 30/10 player. No one is that stupid (or at least I hope not) to even think that.
The point was to show that he's improved on his game, bulked up, and is showing the potential to become a star in this league. He's already doing better than garnett when he first started in the league and that's saying a lot since garnett is a pretty good PF.
Coming into the league he was highly touted as the next big star. Of course there's been a lot of those, but he's shown some promise that he could fill in those shoes unlike some other flops/busts.
No one is honestly saying he is going to the hall of fame, people are saying he has the potential to. Which is perfectly fine of an opinion since we're comparing his stat line/win shares to future hall of famers who are of the same build and skillset as him. He could fall of the face of the earth and bust tomorrow, but that doesn't take away that he has potential to be a hall of famer.
Posted on 10/24/13 at 3:56 pm to htran90
quote:
No one is honestly saying he is going to the hall of fame, people are saying he has the potential to
If he continues on his current trajectory and avoids major injuries, he's going to the hall of fame. Write it down.
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