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re: Why Vegas thinks TCU has a good shot vs LSU
Posted on 8/22/13 at 2:02 pm to goldennugget
Posted on 8/22/13 at 2:02 pm to goldennugget
quote:
This means the public is pounding LSU(not a surprise) but the sharp/smart/high roller money is coming in on TCU to keep the line around 3.5-4.5.
The line has steadily risen and it isn't even the week of the game yet. The first time I looked at this line it was -4 and has gone to 4.5 and now sits at -5 on SportsBook.
Let's see what happens to this line next week in the days leading up to the game and on the day of the game.
1
Posted on 8/22/13 at 2:07 pm to PurpleAndGold86
Vegas hates LSU
Posted on 8/22/13 at 2:21 pm to More beer please
Dont ever underestimate Vegas. Anyone betting the house and laying 4+ points to TCU may need a good friend for shelter and a divorce attorney. Lets just hope the Tigers leave DFW with a victory of any kind.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 2:22 pm to More beer please
quote:
That’s doable, and a certainly more attractive game than the previous Cowboys Classics involving SEC teams.
In 2011, No. 3 LSU 40, No. 4 Oregon 27.
Oregon was favored by 4.5 over LSU.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 2:23 pm to LSUANDY25
quote:
Anyone betting the house and laying 4+ points to TCU may need a good friend for shelter and a divorce attorney. Lets just hope the Tigers leave DFW with a victory of any kind.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 2:32 pm to PurpleAndGold86
quote:I've done quite well betting the dog in games LSU is favored in over the past 7/8 yrs.
Well like I said, go back and take a look at 2011 because we covered the spread in pretty much every single game we played sans like 2.
I started by telling myself that if LSU wins & covers I'm happy they won & covered but I lost my $$$...oh well.
If LSU loses I'm upset, but I have a winning bet to cushion my pain.
If LSU wins but doesn't cover.....party time.
Turned out to be a fairly consistent trait of LSU under Miles....2011 being the major exception.
I usually bet more the bigger the game is. If LSU covers I'm able to live with losing more when they win a big game convincingly. If they lose, the larger winnings gives more cushion to my pain.
I killed on this in 2007 & lost a big chunk in the BCS ship game....still came out ahead significantly.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 2:40 pm to lsuhunt555
quote:I hate bama as much as anyone.
It just irks me how stupid people are. Its like they believe Bama is signing 3 year NFL players and everyone else is signing D3 level players.
But they've won 3 out of the last 4 BIG 'SHIPS.
That gives you plenty of leeway.
BTW-SEC coaches agree that they've completely reloaded...twice the number of players preseason SEC vs the next highest team....15 out of 22 Off & Def starters voted 1st, 2nd or 3rd team....all by the coaches.
Do the coaches have a bama bias also?
Posted on 8/22/13 at 2:48 pm to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
No one is betting on TCU. On SportsBook the action is listed as 96% LSU and 4% TCU.
Vegas knows something we don't if this is true.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 2:55 pm to lsu480
I wanted it at 4 on Bovada but they won't release the lines until Tuesday and it will be 6. Still might take the Tigers.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 3:00 pm to More beer please
He mentions the Oregon game which was a blow out. He says perhaps this game will be closer, but correct me if I am wrong, wasn't LSU an underdog in that game?
Posted on 8/22/13 at 3:04 pm to spike0311
quote:
He mentions the Oregon game which was a blow out. He says perhaps this game will be closer, but correct me if I am wrong, wasn't LSU an underdog in that game?
Yes. -4 oregon
Posted on 8/22/13 at 3:06 pm to lsu480
quote:
Vegas knows something we don't if this is true.
Like what?
Posted on 8/22/13 at 3:08 pm to geauxranger54
quote:
This will be the youngest team we've ever put in a game of this magnitude,” Patterson said. “I think both teams, to be honest with you, with as young as we are (don’t want) to have this ball game as the first game. Both teams are pretty young, but it is what it is.”
All that sounds like to me is that he's already making excuses
Posted on 8/22/13 at 3:10 pm to lsu480
quote:
Vegas knows something we don't if this is true.
Right because they never lose on a particular game line or anything.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 3:16 pm to PurpleAndGold86
Ive heard a lot of people say that the line will move closer to -10 LSU by next week. But why? What causes the lines to move? Any experienced gamblers care to share?
Posted on 8/22/13 at 3:17 pm to geauxranger54
quote:
But why? What causes the lines to move?
Heavy hitters pounding LSU will cause the line to move in that direction. Probably isn't a significant amount of heavy heavy action on this game being placed yet. Heavy bets will start to roll in next week as the game gets closer and closer. I doubt it gets to -10, but I think it will certainly climb higher.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 3:18 pm to More beer please
quote:
Why Vegas thinks TCU has a good shot vs LSU
It's because there has been too much action on LSU and they need to even things out.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 3:20 pm to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
Heavy hitters pounding LSU will cause the line to move in that direction. Probably isn't a significant amount of heavy heavy action on this game being placed yet. Heavy bets will start to roll in next week as the game gets closer and closer. I doubt it gets to -10, but I think it will certainly climb higher.
Thanks
Posted on 8/22/13 at 3:23 pm to More beer please
Great job OP. The article says to take LSU, and you fool the rant into thinking something negative was said. Good thing nobody even bothers to read the article before mouthing off go!
Posted on 8/22/13 at 3:24 pm to geauxranger54
quote:.
Is that really how that works?
That's how it works. There is a built-in fee for betting in Vegas sportsbooks on all bets, so as long as the money is somewhat evenly distributed on both sides, Vegas makes money no matter which side wins. Their primary objective is establishing a line that encourages an equal amount of action on both sides so they minimize their odds of being crushed.
This post was edited on 8/22/13 at 3:24 pm
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