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DooLittle's top PFs projections (Davis#3,Anderson#6)

Posted on 8/7/13 at 1:19 pm
Posted by RonBurgundy
Whale's Vagina(San Diego)
Member since Oct 2005
13302 posts
Posted on 8/7/13 at 1:19 pm
Again this WARP projections

quote:

These days, the 4 position defines the style of basketball a team plays. A point guard-dominated offense that uses a lot of drive-and-kick plays likely looks for a long 4 who can score from deep. The Heat and Knicks use their best players, who traditionally would be small forwards, at the 4 to create mismatches and open up the floor. Teams like Indiana and Chicago use more of a traditional 4, with David West and Carlos Boozer, respectively, serving as primary post-scoring options. That gives these rankings a lot of diversity because many of these guys can and have played other positions.



Top 10
Lebron
Blake
AD
Love
Duncan
Anderson
Faried
Josh Smith
Serge
Melo

Next five-
LaMarcus, Paul Milsap,Dirk, Z-Bo,David Lee
quote:

The power forward position is loaded right now, so you have an awfully impressive "next five" at this position. Aldridge is coming off a down season on the offensive end, with drops in 2-point percentage and foul-drawing. ATH sees a recovery in both instances. Millsap is steady and his shift to Atlanta is predicted to impact his value one way or another. Nowitzki is five years past his peak levels of 17-19 WARP per season. If healthy, he can still push double digits, which is nothing to cry about. ATH, however, sees age taking a further toll on Nowitzki's production.


LINK
This post was edited on 8/7/13 at 1:43 pm
Posted by ShoeBang
Member since May 2012
19356 posts
Posted on 8/7/13 at 1:52 pm to
LA and Z-Bo not being in the top 10 makes this list irrelevant.
Posted by RonBurgundy
Whale's Vagina(San Diego)
Member since Oct 2005
13302 posts
Posted on 8/7/13 at 2:03 pm to
quote:

LA and Z-Bo not being in the top 10 makes this list irrelevant.



Again this WARP projections, so I'm not sure what you mean. DooLittle didn't say these guys were the 10 best power forwards in the league. Read the article first.
Posted by BayouBengal0505
New Orleans
Member since Feb 2013
2686 posts
Posted on 8/7/13 at 2:15 pm to
Great post! Also what amazes me about this article is the WARP of Lebron James... Wow
This post was edited on 8/7/13 at 2:16 pm
Posted by OBUDan
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
40723 posts
Posted on 8/7/13 at 3:11 pm to
Having LeBron on your team is worth 1/4th of a season of wins.
Posted by RonBurgundy
Whale's Vagina(San Diego)
Member since Oct 2005
13302 posts
Posted on 8/7/13 at 4:22 pm to
Funny how this board gets it's panties in a wad over the WARP projections not ranking our guards, yet when we have TWO PFs in the top 6, its :crickets: around here.

Maybe there will be a 5 page thread on how our Center is not in the top 10.
Posted by Ronnie Hot Finger
Metairie
Member since May 2013
316 posts
Posted on 8/7/13 at 4:35 pm to
Yeah DIAF man.
This post was edited on 8/7/13 at 4:36 pm
Posted by RonBurgundy
Whale's Vagina(San Diego)
Member since Oct 2005
13302 posts
Posted on 8/7/13 at 4:47 pm to
quote:

Yeah DIAF man.


excellent insight.

If I can't call it out for what it is, then what's the point of a message board?
Posted by hugme49
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Aug 2013
157 posts
Posted on 8/7/13 at 5:31 pm to
great insight. nice post
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 8/7/13 at 5:31 pm to
WARP is bullshite when evaluating PGs. Best metric ever when ranking PFs.

:lawyered:

Non Insider here, so how do they do the projections? Is it all based on previous seasons stats or do they anticipate jumps/bumps in performance?
Posted by RonBurgundy
Whale's Vagina(San Diego)
Member since Oct 2005
13302 posts
Posted on 8/7/13 at 6:07 pm to
quote:

WARP is bullshite when evaluating PGs. Best metric ever when ranking PFs.

:lawyered:

Non Insider here, so how do they do the projections? Is it all based on previous seasons stats or do they anticipate jumps/bumps in performance?




He uses something called ATH projection- which can be somewhat explained

On incoming rookies and ATH
quote:

In a nutshell, the system estimates how well a player's amateur production will translate based on certain athletic factors, such as foul-drawing ability, rebounding, shot-blocking and steals. This method also is used to project a possible aging pattern for each player, based on his age upon entering the league and similarities to past players with similar athletic traits.


WARP explained

It's not perfect, but is interesting. Age, team role and that do play a factor in these projections.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422238 posts
Posted on 8/7/13 at 6:07 pm to
quote:

Ronnie Hot Finger

...TS?
Posted by RonBurgundy
Whale's Vagina(San Diego)
Member since Oct 2005
13302 posts
Posted on 8/7/13 at 6:08 pm to
quote:

...TS?
?
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