Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014 | TigerDroppings.com

Posted byMessage
Interception
Providence Fan
Member since Nov 2008
11089 posts

Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014


LINK



quote:

This weekend’s announcement by the former governor of Montana, Brian Schweitzer, that he would not seek that state’s Democratic nomination for Senate represents the latest in a series of favorable developments for Republicans as they seek control of the chamber.

The G.O.P.’s task will not be easy: the party holds 46 seats in the Senate, and the number will very probably be cut to 45 after a special election in New Jersey later this year. That means that they would need to win a net of six contests from Democrats in order to control 51 seats and overcome Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s tiebreaking vote. Two years ago at this time, Republicans faced what seemed to be a promising environment and could have won the Senate by gaining a net of three seats from Democrats and winning the presidency. Instead, Mitt Romney lost to President Obama, and the G.O.P. lost a net of two Senate seats.

But Montana along with West Virginia and South Dakota — two other red states where an incumbent Democrat has retired and where the Democrats have not identified a strong candidate to replace them – gives Republicans a running start. Republicans could then win three more seats from among red states like Louisiana and Arkansas, where vulnerable Democratic incumbents are on the ballot, or they could take aim at two purple states, Iowa and Michigan, where Democrats have retired. More opportunities could also come into play if the national environment becomes more favorable to Republicans (such as because of a further slide in Mr. Obama’s approval ratings). Meanwhile, while Kentucky and Georgia are possibly vulnerable, Republicans have few seats of their own to defend; unlike in 2012, they can focus almost entirely on playing offense.

A race-by-race analysis of the Senate, in fact, suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections. Our best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a G.O.P. pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats after 2014, putting them right on the threshold of a majority.

The chart below reflects our current overview of the Senate landscape, including the probability estimates. (The estimates are not based strictly on a formula but instead are best guesses, accounting for the partisan lean of each state, the quality of the prospective candidates, and approval-rating or polling data to the extent that it might be informative.) When we last conducted this exercise in February, our projection was for Republicans to win between 49 and 50 Senate seats, meaning that their standing has improved by about one seat since then.



This post was edited on 7/15 at 6:20 pm



Back to top
Share:
Sentrius
USA Fan
Fort Rozz
Member since Jun 2011
19828 posts

re: Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014








Back to top
Quentin Compson
LSU Fan
Member since Jun 2013
3117 posts

re: Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014








Back to top
  Replies (0)
weagle99
Member since Nov 2011
11602 posts

re: Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014


Impossible. The PT board says the Republican party is dead because of gay marriage.





Back to top
TrueTiger
LSU Fan
Chicken's most valuable
Member since Sep 2004
10286 posts

re: Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014


If it weren't for Mourdock and Akin's idiotic PR blunders they would be 2 seats closer.





Back to top
jamboybarry
LSU Fan
I Putt Out
Member since Feb 2011
10790 posts
 Online 

re: Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014


Nate Silver knows his shit





Back to top
RockyMtnTigerWDE
Auburn Fan
Posibarner CoCaptain 4eva
Member since Oct 2010
41509 posts

re: Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014


Would be glorious if it became truth, but I am doubtful.





Back to top
  Replies (0)
Janky
LSU Fan
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
7895 posts

re: Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014


No way LA goes republican.





Back to top
Sentrius
USA Fan
Fort Rozz
Member since Jun 2011
19828 posts

re: Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014


quote:

Akin


I'll never understand why Akin didn't drop out.

Was he really that arrogant to think that he could win after his colossal and epic frick up? Even after his own party threw him under the bus immediately after?






Back to top
Quentin Compson
LSU Fan
Member since Jun 2013
3117 posts

re: Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014


quote:

No way LA goes republican.
It could. Gun control.






Back to top
goldenbadger08
LSU Fan
Da Boot
Member since Oct 2011
26413 posts

re: Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014


Saw this earlier. Should've posted

Looking good in the Congress.. now let's put Bobby in the White House



This post was edited on 7/15 at 6:28 pm


Back to top
braindeadboxer
LSU Fan
Utopia
Member since Nov 2011
5015 posts

re: Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014


quote:

Gun control.


I'm hoping this does the trick. But we have a bunch of slugs that care more about getting free stuff because they are too lazy to work than they do about their rights.






Back to top
  Replies (0)
Sentrius
USA Fan
Fort Rozz
Member since Jun 2011
19828 posts

re: Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014


quote:

now let's put Bobby in the White House








Back to top
  Replies (0)
jamboybarry
LSU Fan
I Putt Out
Member since Feb 2011
10790 posts
 Online 

re: Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014


quote:

now let's put Bobby in the White House


Pretty sure Bobby Flay already has a day job






Back to top
  Replies (0)
goldenbadger08
LSU Fan
Da Boot
Member since Oct 2011
26413 posts

re: Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014


quote:

No way LA goes republican.
It would if there was no damn 17th amendment

quote:

Pretty sure Bobby Flay already has a day job



This post was edited on 7/15 at 6:31 pm


Back to top
  Replies (0)
Tigerlaff
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2010
9859 posts

re: Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014


I'm not a GOP fan, but I will still relish the sweet sweet schadenfreude of the democrats losing the senate.

The script will be flipped and Obama will become the "obstructionist."






Back to top
Quentin Compson
LSU Fan
Member since Jun 2013
3117 posts

re: Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014


quote:

I'm not a GOP fan, but I will still relish the sweet sweet schadenfreude of the democrats losing the senate.
50-50 senate means Biden gets final vote.






Back to top
  Replies (0)
Politiceaux
LSU Fan
Chuck Vegas
Member since Feb 2009
15529 posts

re: Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014


quote:

Was he really that arrogant to think that he could win after his colossal and epic frick up? Even after his own party threw him under the bus immediately after?

Because he's one of those so called conservatives that hates the Republicans more than the Democrats. He'd rather someone there he agrees with 5% of the time than 85% of the time.






Back to top
  Replies (0)
Antonio Moss
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2006
28832 posts

re: Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014


It's early.

Like real early.






Back to top
TrueTiger
LSU Fan
Chicken's most valuable
Member since Sep 2004
10286 posts

re: Nate Silver: Predicts GOP Controls 50-51 Senate Seats in 2014


quote:

I'll never understand why Akin didn't drop out.


I don't know but he got caught making stuff up about a subject he obviously knew nothing about.

It was so bad it just made you stare with your mouth open.



This post was edited on 7/15 at 6:40 pm


Back to top


Back to top