Why I think we are nowhere near bottom for Silver and Gold

I took another look at the history of Silver and Gold prices and the pattern is very obvious. If you look at the following 2 charts, you'll see that both metals historically peak at absurd values, then crash and CRASH HARD, as much as 80% last time. And unlike a stock market crash, where recovery time is relatively short (4-7 years at most historically) Precious metals go down, and stay down for A LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNGGGGGGGGGG TIME. Had you bought silver or gold in 1980, before the crash, and held patiently for 31 years and sold at the last peak in 2011, you still haven't broken even if you adjust for inflation. Meanwhile, you had to pay for storage, lug those bars and coins around, and you weren't even getting dividends for your patience.







Below is the historical prices of Gold and Silver (in USD) going back 272 years.


Year S/OZ G/OZ G/S Ratio World Reserves
1840 1.29 20 15.5 N/A
1900 0.64 20 31.9 N/A
1920 0.65 20 31.6 N/A
1940 0.34 33 97.3 N/A
1960 0.91 35 38.6 N/A
1970 1.63 35 22.0 N/A
1980 16.39 612 37.4 N/A
1990 4.06 383 94.3 N/A
2000 4.95 279 56.4 420,000
2005 7.31 444 60.8 570,000
2009 14.67 972 66.3 400,000
2010 20.19 1,225 60.7 510,000
2011 35.12 1,572 44.7 530,000
2012 31.15 1,669 53.6


In earlier times, silver has commanded much higher prices. In the early 15th century, the price of silver is estimated to have surpassed $1,200 per ounce, based on 2011 dollars. The discovery of massive silver deposits in the New World during the succeeding centuries has been stated as a cause for its price to have diminished greatly.




I could be wrong, but I think Silver will drop below $10, and Gold below $700, and if history is any indicator, it will be there for awhile. Bitcoins however, will be $100 Million /BTC by the year 2025