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Anyone with Access to the WSJ Online?
Posted on 5/17/13 at 3:39 am
Posted on 5/17/13 at 3:39 am
Does anyone here have access to the online version of the Wall Street Journal? I'm trying to get a full copy of Jon Hilsnerath's cover article entitled "Fed Maps Exit From Stimulus". (May 10).
I found this which just adds interest. Quoting Mike O'Rourke of Jones Trading's "Closing Print":
"We view “unpredictable market expectations” as a sign that the FOMC has been trying to foreshadow policy in one direction and the market is interpreting it in another direction."
And from Mark Dow:
"it is important to underscore that it is the indirect psychological effects from Fed support and the low cost of capital—not the popularly imagined injection of Fed liquidity into stock markets—that have gotten investors to mobilize their idle cash from money market accounts, increase margin, and take financial risk. It is our money, not the Fed’s, that’s driving this rally.
[...] this concept has huge implications for the phase where the Fed decides to remove the training wheels. If the Fed money is not directly propping up the stock market and the economy underneath has been healing, the much talked about wedge between “Fed-induced valuations” and “the fundamentals” is likely considerably smaller than the consensus seems to think. It’s less “artificial”. In short, what all this means is the day the Fed lets up off the gas might give us a blip, or maybe that long-awaited correction, but ultimately the Policy Bears will end up getting crushed, again."
Hilsnerath's article has made a lot of news over the last week so if anyone has a copy, please post it here. Many TIA.
I found this which just adds interest. Quoting Mike O'Rourke of Jones Trading's "Closing Print":
"We view “unpredictable market expectations” as a sign that the FOMC has been trying to foreshadow policy in one direction and the market is interpreting it in another direction."
And from Mark Dow:
"it is important to underscore that it is the indirect psychological effects from Fed support and the low cost of capital—not the popularly imagined injection of Fed liquidity into stock markets—that have gotten investors to mobilize their idle cash from money market accounts, increase margin, and take financial risk. It is our money, not the Fed’s, that’s driving this rally.
[...] this concept has huge implications for the phase where the Fed decides to remove the training wheels. If the Fed money is not directly propping up the stock market and the economy underneath has been healing, the much talked about wedge between “Fed-induced valuations” and “the fundamentals” is likely considerably smaller than the consensus seems to think. It’s less “artificial”. In short, what all this means is the day the Fed lets up off the gas might give us a blip, or maybe that long-awaited correction, but ultimately the Policy Bears will end up getting crushed, again."
Hilsnerath's article has made a lot of news over the last week so if anyone has a copy, please post it here. Many TIA.
3
Posted on 5/17/13 at 6:16 am to Coeur du Tigre
You can Google the article title and then click on the first link. That is usually how I can get the entire article with out online access.
Posted on 5/17/13 at 6:26 am to WDE_315
Thanks WDE, but that's not working. All sites from a search just lead back to the WSJ link asking for a member log on.
Posted on 5/17/13 at 6:52 am to Coeur du Tigre
The only other suggestion I have is doing a Google News search for it and click on the online.wsj link. Maybe that will work.
Posted on 5/17/13 at 10:05 am to Coeur du Tigre
I have it but I'm not allowed to post the article. What specifically are you looking for?
Posted on 5/17/13 at 10:15 am to Coeur du Tigre
My take away is,
The Fed is conscerened with investors trying to get ahead of the expected rollback of bond buying. The attempt at being unpredictable is to avoid a sudden drop in the market from a set in stone strategy.
The article describes this strategy has alredy be agreed upon, but the time to implement is being discussed. The 3rd and 4th quarters are mentioned, but Fisher out of Dallas suggests starting now.
The Fed is conscerened with investors trying to get ahead of the expected rollback of bond buying. The attempt at being unpredictable is to avoid a sudden drop in the market from a set in stone strategy.
The article describes this strategy has alredy be agreed upon, but the time to implement is being discussed. The 3rd and 4th quarters are mentioned, but Fisher out of Dallas suggests starting now.
Posted on 5/17/13 at 12:25 pm to Oenophile Brah
Thanks Brah. When Fisher of the Dallas Fed or Plosser of Philadelphia give a speech, you know it's going to be critical of current Fed policy. But when Williams of SF starts to talk about pulling back QE as early as this summer, you know some balloons are being floated.
Good to see they have a plan for a soft landing and we don't go from 'nominal support' to hyper inflation one morning while Chairman Ben is having his Wheaties. Just hope it works.
Good to see they have a plan for a soft landing and we don't go from 'nominal support' to hyper inflation one morning while Chairman Ben is having his Wheaties. Just hope it works.
Posted on 5/18/13 at 6:39 am to WDE_315
quote:
You can Google the article title and then click on the first link. That is usually how I can get the entire article with out online access.
That's the trick for the NYT, not the WSJ.
Posted on 5/18/13 at 6:48 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
When Fisher of the Dallas Fed or Plosser of Philadelphia give a speech, you know it's going to be critical of current Fed policy. But when Williams of SF starts to talk about pulling back QE as early as this summer, you know some balloons are being floated.
There have been several news stories this year talking about how there is growing opinion inside the Fed to begin tapering down the bond purchase program.
The news article has a nice chart and 2 videos associated with it, but I think the main idea is relatively old hat, and is encapsulated well with this snippet:
quote:
Yet while officials appear increasingly settled on a strategy for how to dial back the program, they haven't decided when to start.
Mr. Fisher said he advocated starting right away at the last Fed meeting. Some officials can envision taking a first step this summer, if strong data show the economy is weathering the tax increases and federal spending cuts that appear to be weighing on growth. But they might wait longer, especially if the economy disappoints, as it has for several years during the spring and summer months.
A Wall Street Journal survey of private economists this week showed that 55% expect the Fed to start shrinking its bond purchases in the third or fourth quarter this year, while 45% expect the Fed to wait until next year or later. None expected the Fed to increase its purchases as its next step.
The bond-buying programs are aimed at pushing down long-term interest rates and boosting financial markets to encourage more borrowing, spending and hiring in the broader economy. The Fed's securities holdings have increased from $2.58 trillion to $3.04 trillion since September.
Clearer signals about the Fed's plans could emerge next week. Five regional Fed bank presidents, including Mr. Fisher and Mr. Plosser, and Fed governor Sarah Bloom Raskin are scheduled to speak. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will discuss economic prospects for the long-run in a commencement address at Bard College at Simon's Rock next Saturday.
Although the Jon Hilsenrath video accompanying that May 11 article has not been posted to YouTube, a 4-minute round-table discussion involving Hilsenrath and Wessel is available from yesterday: LINK.
Posted on 5/18/13 at 11:54 am to Doc Fenton
Thanks Doctor, that clears the smoke a bit. Lots of indirect references to Hilsenrath's article in op-ed pieces and discussion threads but they all assume the reader has read Hilsenrath.
This short piece by my favorite soothsayer points to lagging employment in the Federal Government as being the biggest hold-up to starting the dial back. Health care employment is still down, not surprisingly with the un- and underemployed out there, but he is confident it will recover fairly quickly.
So now we watch for full government employment. Meanwhile, it's off to the famous Bard College...
Thanks again.
This short piece by my favorite soothsayer points to lagging employment in the Federal Government as being the biggest hold-up to starting the dial back. Health care employment is still down, not surprisingly with the un- and underemployed out there, but he is confident it will recover fairly quickly.
So now we watch for full government employment. Meanwhile, it's off to the famous Bard College...
Thanks again.
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