Is Cairo in 2013 comparable to Paris in 1789? | TigerDroppings.com

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TigerPride10
Columbia Fan
Seoul, Korea
Member since Jul 2007
9485 posts

Is Cairo in 2013 comparable to Paris in 1789?


There have been a few discussions regarding this in academic circles as Egyptian politics have become more polarized and less stable. While the immediate comparisons are interesting from an historical perspective solely, the importance of having such a debate is due to the implications of what it would mean for the balance of power in the Middle East region. Assuming the turmoil continues in Egypt and the rest of the region (as it will), it's not a far-fetched assumption to believe that the only way it will be quelled will be through a powerful leader from the Arab world's most populous state.

Could a revolutionary Egypt propel another powerful figure to attempt what Nasser could not complete in the 1950s, or what Napoleon nearly did for Europe at the beginning of the 19th century?

What say the Politards?







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FunroePete
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2012
449 posts

re: Is Cairo in 2013 comparable to Paris in 1789?


Would have to meddle with UN intervention aka US and Britain.
Also Israel






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Paluka
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One State Over
Member since Dec 2010
4111 posts

re: Is Cairo in 2013 comparable to Paris in 1789?


Well, we're sending them some fighter jets so that might help them achieve their agenda.





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TigerPride10
Columbia Fan
Seoul, Korea
Member since Jul 2007
9485 posts

re: Is Cairo in 2013 comparable to Paris in 1789?


quote:

Well, we're sending them some fighter jets so that might help them achieve their agenda.


Another question to ask is would a more powerful Egypt would truly upset the current balance of power, assuming there even is one. The major players in the region are not keeping the peace as one would expect.






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nobodytooimportant
Member since Oct 2012
657 posts

re: Is Cairo in 2013 comparable to Paris in 1789?


I don't see it. I have always thought the Pan-Arabism of Nasser was an exercise is in futility.

I think there is rather large cultural and linguistic differences among the Gulf, North Africa, and Levant. I think in many ways uniting that large of a region is like a united Europe, it can be done on some level, but as the EU is learning it can't be that deep.

During the time of Nassar, Egypt was a natural leader of the Arab world because of its wealth, population, and the spread of its culture through its entertainment exports. None of these things are as true as they once were. Back then the driving force connecting everyone was economic in nature (communism, or perhaps a third world one in the original sense of the word).

Today, if there is to be a driving force I would imagine it would be a religious one coming from the Saudis. But the wahabisim they export is Sunni, there are too many Shia's for this to be a uniting force across the Arab world.

At best I could see Egypt might be able to take a leading role among the North Africa states, but why would the rich oil kingdoms follow them?






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nobodytooimportant
Member since Oct 2012
657 posts

re: Is Cairo in 2013 comparable to Paris in 1789?


quote:

Another question to ask is would a more powerful Egypt would truly upset the current balance of power, assuming there even is one.


No, the military is not risking what it has unless it is forced to as evidence of its continuing military and intelligence cooperation with Israel. The military is still operating as an independent actor in Egypt. The military is also really entrenched, despite Morsi and the MB making more headway then I thought they would with the replacement of its leaders (the replacement its should be noted are not MB loyalist but still part of the military establishment), the military still maintains solid control over its assets.

A true revolution might change this reality, but after the moves the MB has made I don't think the still significant liberal groups would support wide spread changes in the military for fears Egypt would be completely controlled by Islamists.






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TigerPride10
Columbia Fan
Seoul, Korea
Member since Jul 2007
9485 posts

re: Is Cairo in 2013 comparable to Paris in 1789?


quote:

I don't see it. I have always thought the Pan-Arabism of Nasser was an exercise is in futility.

I think there is rather large cultural and linguistic differences among the Gulf, North Africa, and Levant. I think in many ways uniting that large of a region is like a united Europe, it can be done on some level, but as the EU is learning it can't be that deep.

During the time of Nassar, Egypt was a natural leader of the Arab world because of its wealth, population, and the spread of its culture through its entertainment exports. None of these things are as true as they once were. Back then the driving force connecting everyone was economic in nature (communism, or perhaps a third world one in the original sense of the word).

Today, if there is to be a driving force I would imagine it would be a religious one coming from the Saudis. But the wahabisim they export is Sunni, there are too many Shia's for this to be a uniting force across the Arab world.

At best I could see Egypt might be able to take a leading role among the North Africa states, but why would the rich oil kingdoms follow them?


Good insights on the implications here, but how about the comparisons between revolutionary Egypt and France? Can one logically make such a comparison?






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nobodytooimportant
Member since Oct 2012
657 posts

re: Is Cairo in 2013 comparable to Paris in 1789?


quote:

Good insights on the implications here, but how about the comparisons between revolutionary Egypt and France? Can one logically make such a comparison?


Frankly I have forgotten much of what I know about revolutionary France, but I don't think so. Revolutionary France was in much more chaos then Egypt is today and was seeking stability and because of this was more accepting a very strong leader.

Also once organized, france was one of the richest states in Europe, especially compared to the not fully organized states in conquer. This is not the case with Egypt.






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Mo Jeaux
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NYC
Member since Aug 2008
12832 posts

re: Is Cairo in 2013 comparable to Paris in 1789?


Nobody, you seem to have more than an average understanding of the Middle East. What is your background?





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CarrolltonTiger
LSU Fan
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2005
46291 posts

re: Is Cairo in 2013 comparable to Paris in 1789?


quote:

What is your background?


Isn't he the poster that used to be Otto (188 IQ)?

At any rate I pretty much agree with everything he wrote, I'm not sure how serious academics are making this comparison, perhaps TP09 will expand on their thoughts.

Egypt is no France, it is militarily inept as are the Arab states; and the ability to change borders is much less than it was in the 18th, 19th or first half of the 20th century; the oil rich states aren't seeking union with the poverty striken masses, power is power no matter what the Religion, why would any of the North African States leaders want to in a subordinate union with Egypt a great Egyptian leader.

The language problem would not be that much of a problem, there are different dialects but they can communicate using Modern Standard or clasical Arabic, much better than Europeans can.


Toothpicks 13th century theories make more sense.



This post was edited on 1/23 at 8:16 am


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prplhze2000
LSU Fan
Parts Unknown
Member since Jan 2007
31202 posts
 Online 

re: Is Cairo in 2013 comparable to Paris in 1789?


and the King of the South will rise up against Israel





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nobodytooimportant
Member since Oct 2012
657 posts

re: Is Cairo in 2013 comparable to Paris in 1789?


quote:

Nobody, you seem to have more than an average understanding of the Middle East. What is your background?


I received a master degree with a secondary focus on international security. Since this was done in the early part of last decade, this meant terrorism, which meant some focus on the middle east. My jobs since then have had some tangential relations to that part of the world, so I have picked some stuff up from people, but never really needed the info for my job.






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braindeadboxer
LSU Fan
Utopia
Member since Nov 2011
5015 posts

re: Is Cairo in 2013 comparable to Paris in 1789?


Everything is technically comparable. However, once you complete the comparison you will see that Cairo 2013 & Paris 1789 have nothing in common other then a shitload of angry people.





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nobodytooimportant
Member since Oct 2012
657 posts

re: Is Cairo in 2013 comparable to Paris in 1789?


quote:

Isn't he the poster that used to be Otto (188 IQ)?


Nope, not an alter of Otto, nor an alter of anyone. Enough of you are convinced I am that someone got an admin to ban me as an alter for about 10 minutes until I proved to them I am not.

quote:

The language problem would not be that much of a problem, there are different dialects but they can communicate using Modern Standard or clasical Arabic, much better than Europeans can.



I think you are overlooking this issue. The elites can communicate in MSA, but can the masses? There are relatively few elites in countries and if you are talking about some sort of united political entity across the Arab world it seems to me it almost has to come bottom up from the uneducated masses.

The dialects can be substantially different. I heard at the start of the Iraq war the US army came into the villages with Moroccan translators who literally couldn't communicate with the Iraqi villagers due to the difference in dialect.

Let's do a thought experiment, how likely would you be to get rid of your American identity and take up a pan-Anglo identity following someone who spoke to you in the Queen's English with a nice Oxford accent?

I think a lot of the whole who would you like to have a beer with in American politics, really comes down to, does the person sound like me.






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CarrolltonTiger
LSU Fan
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2005
46291 posts

re: Is Cairo in 2013 comparable to Paris in 1789?


quote:

The elites can communicate in MSA, but can the masses?


Yes, probably a less significant problem than English for Ebonic speakers.

MSA is the standard across the Arabic world, it is closely related toClassical arabic which the religious know, and supposedly the parent for all dialects.

quote:

I heard at the start of the Iraq war the US army came into the villages with Moroccan translators who literally couldn't communicate with the Iraqi villagers due to the difference in dialect.


If your anecdote is true, perhaps the Iraqi villagers didn't want to communicate, not understanding would be useful in many cases.

Perhaps the Moroccan interpreters were crappy at their jobs, our ability to hire good interpreters has been notoriously poor.


quote:

I think a lot of the whole who would you like to have a beer with in American politics, really comes down to, does the person sound like me.


No idea what that is suppose to mean. But I am convinced you are not Otto.

Personally, I enjoy speaking to interesting people who speak foreign languages with limited english ability or my limited ability in their language. The struggle can be interesting and informative.










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