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re: OFFICIAL Week 11 CFB bet thread™

Posted on 11/8/12 at 4:45 pm to
Posted by BeaumontBengal
Member since Feb 2005
2334 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 4:45 pm to
I like Penn St. Anyone think it gets bigger?
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16834 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 4:51 pm to
quote:

That Louisville line is so suspicious... and yet I can't help but lean toward Louisville.



Posted by Ghazi
Dallas Mavs 2011 NBA Champions
Member since Dec 2007
16121 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 4:53 pm to
I can't help it man! Undefeated team ... what's so tough about the Carrier Dome.

I also like UNDER 79 in WVU/OSU... OSU's defensive statistics are somewhat respectable.
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16834 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 4:55 pm to
quote:

I also like UNDER 79 in WVU/OSU... OSU's defensive statistics are somewhat respectable.



Posted by BeaumontBengal
Member since Feb 2005
2334 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 5:00 pm to
Penn State to +9 since I posted 10 minutes ago.
Posted by Chef Leppard
Member since Sep 2011
11739 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 5:03 pm to
You and those damn emotes man
Posted by BeYou
DFW
Member since Oct 2012
6025 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 5:08 pm to
quote:

I'm leaning that way.......wish it was in Tallahassee though.


Agree but everything else points towards Vtech.
Posted by Zipfer2022
Member since Nov 2011
3736 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 5:20 pm to
quote:

All over Arky St. tonight at -7. Ryan Aplin is the best quarterback you've never heard of. With ULM's "Star" QB out tonight, I don't see how you could be on the other side


Tailing you on this. I doubt Monroe has a serviceable backup QB. The line also looks like it is begging for action on Monroe.

I think VT actually keeps it close and plays well, but no way in hell am I ever betting on Logan Thomas ever again in my life. I also don't see VT moving the ball against the FSU D with any consistency.

FSU/VT Under 49
Arky St -7
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 5:32 pm to
½* Va Tech +13½


LW: 3-1
YTD: 24-11-0; +20 units
Posted by imAMAZING
Member since Sep 2008
5752 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 5:35 pm to
Arkansas St TT o33 1/2 anyone?
Posted by accnodefense
Trump Fan
Member since Dec 2010
6279 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 5:37 pm to
Stop betting parlays and teasers, its a waste of money, high house edge

One night when I was living in Vegas I spent 4 or 5 hours filling out $2 parlay and teaser cards. I filled out 100 $2 parlay cards and 100 $2 teaser cards ranging from 3-15 teams

I lost all but 3 of them and only won back about $200 of the $400 I risked. Went 1 for 100 on the parlays, only hitting a 6 teamer for $80 and 2 for 100 on the teasers hitting a 5 teamer for $5.50 and an 11 teamer for $100 or so

These bets wouldn't exist if they didn't make crazy money for the house
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 5:40 pm to
quote:

I filled out 100 $2 parlay cards and 100 $2 teaser cards ranging from 3-15 teams



Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16834 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 5:42 pm to
You have an algorithmic system don't you?
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 5:47 pm to
yeah, i run a weekly regression with SPSS
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16834 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 5:48 pm to
Did you run the Arky St game? I already have a good bit on it, but something keeps telling me to put more on it. Just wondering what yours or dgtigers system is simulating the outcome to be...
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 5:51 pm to
34-31 ULM to win

was there a major injury or something in that game? havent paid attention.
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16834 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 5:53 pm to
Colton Browing, ULM's starting QB, is out
Posted by Htown Tiger
Houston
Member since Sep 2005
2312 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 5:53 pm to
quote:

Did you run the Arky St game?

I dont know what his system entails, but I cant imagine any statistical system being able to cap this game accurately with the backup QB now it. ULM's offenive numbers this season are somewhat irrelevant now.

ETA:
quote:

34-31 ULM to win

Yep, thats about what I would expect. My sheet says ULM 33-28. But I already bet Arky St.
This post was edited on 11/8/12 at 5:56 pm
Posted by BeYou
DFW
Member since Oct 2012
6025 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 5:53 pm to
quote:

34-31 ULM to win was there a major injury or something in that game? havent paid attention.


ULM starting QB is out.
Posted by Flatt2Flowers04
Miami, FL
Member since Jul 2011
3357 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 5:54 pm to
ULM also has their top two RB's out tonight.

With all this talk about the Louisvile line movement, that's just Vegas playing with your head. Yes, the Carrier Dome is somewhat of a home field advantage, but the key word there is DOME. Bridgewater has put up excellent numbers in some absolutely attrocious weather conditions. TB in a dome - $. This game will also come down to coaching and Charlie Strong will coach circles around Paul Marrone.
This post was edited on 11/8/12 at 5:57 pm
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