Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28% | TigerDroppings.com

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Toddy
Ole Miss Fan
Atlanta
Member since Jul 2010
20460 posts
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Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


According to Nate Silver, this is down from 41% on June 2nd. The electoral spread has grown from a 285.1/252.9 Obama lead to 303.8/234.2 . I'll admit I haven't looked at the other sites today, but Nate usually shows the tightest race.

Can some of you Romney partisans explain to me how Romney's supposed convention bounce is going to be enough to catapult him past Obama and carry him to victory in November? A convention where the last two nights saw ratings DROP 30% compared to 2008. A convention where the show "Here Comes Honey Boo Boo" garnered higher ratings than most of the networks carrying the RNC ? (I'm sure the DNC will probably have equally dismal ratings).

Help me out here. Thanks.

LINK /



This post was edited on 9/1 at 1:34 pm



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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
80165 posts

re: Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


quote:

carry him to voctory

Is that a homosexual victory?






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Taxing Authority
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
22103 posts

re: Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


quote:

Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%




Whatever it takes to make you feel better!






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bhtigerfan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2008
2398 posts

re: Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


Good, keep believing that. That's gonna be great for Dem turnout. "It's in the bag, I don't need to vote".





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Toddy
Ole Miss Fan
Atlanta
Member since Jul 2010
20460 posts
 Online 

re: Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


quote:





Whatever it takes to make you feel better!


Just reporting what Nate Silver and 538 say. You want to argue with Nate's analysis? Tell me why this is wrong.

Nate Silver has demonstrated that he knows his shite.






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HailHailtoMichigan!
Michigan Fan
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
10699 posts

re: Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


Nate Silver has been doing this for ONE election...one. And it was one of the easiest elections to predict. Why do you put so much stock in him?





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Toddy
Ole Miss Fan
Atlanta
Member since Jul 2010
20460 posts
 Online 

re: Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


quote:

Nate Silver has been doing this for ONE election...one. And it was one of the easiest elections to predict. Why do you put so much stock in him?


What's his past track record on calling elctions?






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dewster
Maryland Fan
Tennessee
Member since Aug 2006
8996 posts

re: Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


Romney has an uphill battle, but he's ahead in the polls this week, and we won't see the full effect of the RNC in the results for a few days. Does the fact that this prediction is made by a DailyKos blogger lends his brand unbiased credibility in your eyes?

Either way....it's quite possible that the winner of the EC won't be the winner of the popular vote. Things are close so far.



This post was edited on 9/1 at 1:41 pm


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Scruffy
USA Fan
Member since Jul 2011
29057 posts

re: Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


Out of curiosity, how did he calculate this drop of 13%? Also, how did he calculate the drop of 3.6% from Aug. 24?

Polls show that Romney has been moving closer and closer to Obama, yet his chance of winning drops despite that?

I'm confused. What are Nate Silver's methods?



This post was edited on 9/1 at 1:43 pm


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Taxing Authority
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
22103 posts

re: Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


quote:

Just reporting what Nate Silver and 538 say. You want to argue with Nate's analysis? Tell me why this is wrong.
Yeah. Ok. It's good news for Obama supporters. So good, in fact, there's really no reason to vote. He's a shoo in.






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Elcid96
LSU Fan
Member since May 2010
5280 posts
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re: Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


I imagine if their is anyone on this board who has the inside track on who knows their shite it would be you!





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los angeles tiger
LSU Fan
1,601 miles from Tiger Stadium
Member since Oct 2003
55976 posts

re: Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


Toddy really needs to take the jumper clamps off of his nipples.





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Toddy
Ole Miss Fan
Atlanta
Member since Jul 2010
20460 posts
 Online 

re: Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


quote:

Out of curiosity, how did he calculate this drop of 13%? Also, how did he calculate the drop of 3.6% from Aug. 24?

Polls show that Romney has been moving closer and closer to Obama, yet his chance of winning drops despite that?

I'm confused. What are Nate Silver's methods?


Read his articles. He goes into all the technicals of how he calculates things. How he weights polls with likely voters vs. registered voters, etc.






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Taxing Authority
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
22103 posts

re: Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


quote:

Toddy really needs to take the jumper clamps off of his nipples.

or stop reading crackpot analyses.






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GumboPot
LSU Fan
Saints Fan
Member since Mar 2009
23940 posts

re: Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


quote:

You want to argue with Nate's analysis?


Nothing, except for the fact that it changes form day to day. He's like an economist or a weather man. As the conditions change his predictions change. He'll be predicting a Romney Ryan win the week before November 6 and claim he was right the whole time.



This post was edited on 9/1 at 1:47 pm


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NHTIGER
LSU Fan
Central New Hampshire
Member since Nov 2003
9118 posts

re: Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


Nate Silver just happens to be the "in" guy because he got lucky in his very first foray into polling in 2008. Prior to that, he was a baseball stats guru with known leftist political leanings.

The guy constantly hedges his bets, so one can always find something he predicted that will make him look good.

For example, even though on one hand he predicted a GOP gain of 54 seats in the House in 2010 (most polls did as well or better) - the actual gain was 63 seats - Silver did something he is well-known for. He published an alternative prediction that had it happened, he knew he would have been hailed as a true genius among political prognosticators.

"5 Reasons Democrats Could Beat the Polls and Hold the House"

LINK /

When did he do this? Two weeks before the election? One week before the election?

No.

He released it at 8:20 PM the night before the election. Now, that's true insight.







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Scruffy
USA Fan
Member since Jul 2011
29057 posts

re: Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


It still seems like a massive load of bull. He drops Romney 3.6% points despite the fact that it appears he is having a larger "convention bounce" than Obama did with about 30% less people watching.

It still makes no sense that despite Romney closing the gap in the polls, Obama's chances of winning are increasing?

I'll take this guy's opinion with a massive grain of salt.






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Taxing Authority
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
22103 posts

re: Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


quote:

Nate Silver just happens to be the "in" guy because he is saying what democrats want to hear.
There you go.

quote:

He published an alternative prediction that had it happened, he knew he would have been hailed as a true genius among political prognosticators.
ah. The Krugman strategy.






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GumboPot
LSU Fan
Saints Fan
Member since Mar 2009
23940 posts

re: Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


quote:

NHTIGER


Yep. There is nothing special about Nate Silver's prognostication skills. He's just put on a pedestal by the NYT lemmings because the NYT says so.






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los angeles tiger
LSU Fan
1,601 miles from Tiger Stadium
Member since Oct 2003
55976 posts

re: Romney's chance of winning this election has plummeted to 28%


quote:

I'll take this guy's opinion with a massive grain of salt


Toddy takes that guy's opinion with a massive bag of meth.






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