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GFunk 
LSU Fan
Denham Springs
Member since Feb 2011
7638 posts
| China having some twubbles... (Posted on 5/14/12 at 9:06 am)
Its all over Google News early this morning based on a quick search. When you search "China" everyone's gripping & freaking. I think oil's down to $94/barrel based on fears of them slowing.
It seems fairly easy to discern that they indeed are, what with them reducing their capital reserve requirements by 50 basis points for banks, & the amount of folks pulling the reminibi out of banks in general.
But, what's the overall honest appraisal of China's economic health? I mean, lets say they decided to stop buying our debt. What would happen?
Anyone gotst a clue?
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mule74
LSU Fan
Houston, TX
Member since Nov 2004
6162 posts
| re: China having some twubbles... (Posted on 5/14/12 at 9:22 am to GFunk)
From a strictly macro point of view, this was a long time coming. ETA: This is not to say that I think China's economy will collapse any day now. But the destruction of their current econo-political system is coming sooner than later.
My favorite graduate course for my MBA was Sino-American Business Relationships. Almost a quarter of the class was Chinese and when the instructor threw down a gauntlet of sociological and geographic issues that he though the Chinese could never overcome, they all generally agreed.
This post was edited on 5/14 at 9:28 am
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Sheep 
USA Fan
Straight Outta Acy
Member since Jun 2007
12972 posts
| re: China having some twubbles... (Posted on 5/14/12 at 9:25 am to mule74)
quote:
My favorite graduate course for my MBA was Sino-American Business Relationships.
That sounds fascinating.
I'm taking my last MBA elective this summer.... Internet Marketing. 
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GFunk
LSU Fan
Denham Springs
Member since Feb 2011
7638 posts
| re: China having some twubbles... (Posted on 5/14/12 at 9:29 am to mule74)
quote:
mule74
quote:
But the destruction of their current econo-political system is coming sooner than later.
My favorite graduate course for my MBA was Sino-American Business Relationships. Almost a quarter of the class was Chinese and when the instructor threw down a gauntlet of sociological and geographic issues that he though the Chinese could never overcome, they all generally agreed.
I've heard their population problems (too many men and not enough women) is just the tip of the iceberg.
Care to go into greater detail for someone whose interested but honestly not all that well informed?
This post was edited on 5/14 at 9:30 am
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mule74
LSU Fan
Houston, TX
Member since Nov 2004
6162 posts
| re: China having some twubbles... (Posted on 5/14/12 at 9:51 am to GFunk)
quote:
Care to go into greater detail for someone whose interested but honestly not all that well informed?
The one that shocked me the most ... lack of clean drinking water. They have very few rivers with potable drinking water given their population and they've thoroughly polluted the few they do have. Also, they don't have the same underground aquafurs and groundwater we have. In fact, pollution is a big problem in general. It's easy to grow at 10% annualized when you throw up a 1880s style coal plant on every corner.
They also have a huge housing bubble that has never popped. But that's been discussed pretty thoroughly on this board.
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lynxcat 
Rutgers Fan
Member since Jan 2008
13190 posts
| re: China having some twubbles... (Posted on 5/14/12 at 10:25 am to GFunk)
quote:
I've heard their population problems (too many men and not enough women) is just the tip of the iceberg.
Care to go into greater detail for someone whose interested but honestly not all that well informed?
To add to this...
1. No navigable rivers
2. South China (Hong Kong) area is where the most investment occurs in Asia. Shanghai offers the best port in the region.
3. The age distribution is ruined due to one child policy. This ruins the flow of capital and spending (young = spend; old = save/provide capital).
I just heard a speech on geopolitical implications that included China as a topic...these are a few of the takeaways.
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greenhead11
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2012
608 posts
| re: China having some twubbles... (Posted on 5/14/12 at 10:41 am to mule74)
1st. The whole landing thing is complete bull shitte. Soft landing hard landing- irrelevant. A GDP decline from 8.5 to 8.1 or whatever it turns out is hardly a "landing". Brazil GDP from 7%+ to like 2% or whatever the numbers are is a landing. China is a period of transition that is essential for the long term viability- transition from a low cost manufacturer to a consumer class in a hybrid type (quasi free market economy)
China does have many problems (inflation, lack of infrastructure, poor transparency to name a few). Orchestrating a growth slow down however I'd argue is not the worse problem to have (look at Europe). In fact its a pretty damn good problem to have. GDP growth slowing a couple hundred bps really does not concern me much. While their effect on global economy is extensive, there are great investment opportunities in china to access a growing consumer class that US doesn't have. If Europe can manage to not f the world, China should be able orchestrate continued growth on infrastructure spending alone.
That being said, infrastructure the best investment out there:
quote:
The one that shocked me the most ... lack of clean drinking water
These opportunities and investments in infrastructure are likely what is necessary to keep China' s economy expanding. 80% of the population live 2nd, 3rd, and 4th tier cities where there is an overwhelming demand for housing, a far cry from what is going on in the 1st housing market were property values are tanking.
For those concerned about china's property bubble I urge you to turn off CNN and go to China's country side and 2nd and 3rd tier cities. I have recently traveled to China and the results are eye opening.
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foshizzle
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2008
25087 posts
 Online
| re: China having some twubbles... (Posted on 5/14/12 at 11:31 am to mule74)
quote:
The one that shocked me the most ... lack of clean drinking water
This is pretty common in developing nations. Bear in mind that although Chinese cities are booming like gangbusters, once you go out into the countryside you are in 3rd world boonies like you wouldn't believe. Very little (if any) public services like utilities, sewage, etc.
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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
63163 posts
| re: China having some twubbles... (Posted on 5/14/12 at 11:51 am to mule74)
quote:
lack of clean drinking water.
That's because of all those Chinese laundries.....
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