China having some twubbles...

From a strictly macro point of view, this was a long time coming. ETA: This is not to say that I think China's economy will collapse any day now. But the destruction of their current econo-political system is coming sooner than later.

My favorite graduate course for my MBA was Sino-American Business Relationships. Almost a quarter of the class was Chinese and when the instructor threw down a gauntlet of sociological and geographic issues that he though the Chinese could never overcome, they all generally agreed.

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mule74

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But the destruction of their current econo-political system is coming sooner than later.

My favorite graduate course for my MBA was Sino-American Business Relationships. Almost a quarter of the class was Chinese and when the instructor threw down a gauntlet of sociological and geographic issues that he though the Chinese could never overcome, they all generally agreed.

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I've heard their population problems (too many men and not enough women) is just the tip of the iceberg.

Care to go into greater detail for someone whose interested but honestly not all that well informed?

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Care to go into greater detail for someone whose interested but honestly not all that well informed?

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The one that shocked me the most ... lack of clean drinking water. They have very few rivers with potable drinking water given their population and they've thoroughly polluted the few they do have. Also, they don't have the same underground aquafurs and groundwater we have. In fact, pollution is a big problem in general. It's easy to grow at 10% annualized when you throw up a 1880s style coal plant on every corner.

They also have a huge housing bubble that has never popped. But that's been discussed pretty thoroughly on this board.

1st. The whole landing thing is complete bull shitte. Soft landing hard landing- irrelevant. A GDP decline from 8.5 to 8.1 or whatever it turns out is hardly a "landing". Brazil GDP from 7%+ to like 2% or whatever the numbers are is a landing. China is a period of transition that is essential for the long term viability- transition from a low cost manufacturer to a consumer class in a hybrid type (quasi free market economy)

China does have many problems (inflation, lack of infrastructure, poor transparency to name a few). Orchestrating a growth slow down however I'd argue is not the worse problem to have (look at Europe). In fact its a pretty damn good problem to have. GDP growth slowing a couple hundred bps really does not concern me much. While their effect on global economy is extensive, there are great investment opportunities in china to access a growing consumer class that US doesn't have. If Europe can manage to not f the world, China should be able orchestrate continued growth on infrastructure spending alone.

That being said, infrastructure the best investment out there:

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The one that shocked me the most ... lack of clean drinking water

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These opportunities and investments in infrastructure are likely what is necessary to keep China' s economy expanding. 80% of the population live 2nd, 3rd, and 4th tier cities where there is an overwhelming demand for housing, a far cry from what is going on in the 1st housing market were property values are tanking.

For those concerned about china's property bubble I urge you to turn off CNN and go to China's country side and 2nd and 3rd tier cities. I have recently traveled to China and the results are eye opening.

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lack of clean drinking water.

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That's because of all those Chinese laundries.....