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Started By
Message
Money people - what is your view of the economy?
Posted on 2/15/12 at 9:56 pm
Posted on 2/15/12 at 9:56 pm
I read the poli board a decent bit, so I know what they think...and I also watch the news, talk to friends and family, etc.
But for the financial experts on this board, how do you feel about the economy? Improving slowly? In line for a double-dip recession? Worried about the Federal debt? I am interested to know.
But for the financial experts on this board, how do you feel about the economy? Improving slowly? In line for a double-dip recession? Worried about the Federal debt? I am interested to know.
This post was edited on 2/16/12 at 12:44 pm
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Posted on 2/15/12 at 10:20 pm to LSU Piston
The "overall economy" (whatever that is) doesn't matter much.
Some people got rich during the Great Depression, what matters is that little part that involves you.
Some people got rich during the Great Depression, what matters is that little part that involves you.
Posted on 2/15/12 at 10:27 pm to LSU Piston
I sense that the country is doing better. I guess my view is all screwed up though, because I never saw a real problem. Not a single person I knew really suffered much during the recession.
Posted on 2/15/12 at 10:30 pm to foshizzle
quote:
what matters is that little part that involves you.
true...my business is on it's 3rd great year in a row. Biggest problem is visibility into the future. In the early 90's I could forecast 12-18 months out pretty accurately. Now the confidence factor on anything beyond about 90 days is pretty iffy. As they say though, that may be the new normal.
Posted on 2/15/12 at 10:37 pm to notiger1997
quote:
I sense that the country is doing better. I guess my view is all screwed up though, because I never saw a real problem. Not a single person I knew really suffered much during the recession.
Where do you live? If it's New Orleans as your name suggests, TX and LA have been very insulated from many of the problems of the country. I think we are a little better off than many suspect, but we are lucky to live in mineral-rich states/energy hubs and many outside of us are still hurting.
Posted on 2/15/12 at 10:42 pm to LSU Piston
Whatever you do, don't listen to Lance Roberts (Streettalk Advisors) on Houston radio or go to their website/facebook page. If ever there was a Perma Bear, it is him. Just listening to him talk or seeing his and his fans' posts on his Facebook page will make you think the end of the world is here. God he is depressing. He has been since the recession started and still is. At one point a few years ago I was thinking of signing up with him for my investment needs, but it never happened. I can't stand people that are miserable all the time.
Like someone already said, I too have had the 3 best years of my life financially starting from 2008. It all depends on what the individual is doing and what stage of career/life they are in at the time.
Like someone already said, I too have had the 3 best years of my life financially starting from 2008. It all depends on what the individual is doing and what stage of career/life they are in at the time.
This post was edited on 2/15/12 at 10:44 pm
Posted on 2/15/12 at 11:04 pm to LSU Piston
Inflation has to occur....it is unavoidable
interest rate, at some point, will most likely rise.
the current POTUS is neither friendly to small business or anyone who makes 250K + per year. He also likes to use terms like " Spreading the wealth" and " fair share".
meanwhile the national debt rages.
Chances of a double dip recession continue to be a possibility.
fuel prices are soaring
Iran continues to make strides towards a nuclear weapon.
Who knows how bad or not it will be. Its not going to be good or great for a while IMO.
Remember, it's a recession if someone you know loses a job. it's a depression if you lose your job.
interest rate, at some point, will most likely rise.
the current POTUS is neither friendly to small business or anyone who makes 250K + per year. He also likes to use terms like " Spreading the wealth" and " fair share".
meanwhile the national debt rages.
Chances of a double dip recession continue to be a possibility.
fuel prices are soaring
Iran continues to make strides towards a nuclear weapon.
Who knows how bad or not it will be. Its not going to be good or great for a while IMO.
Remember, it's a recession if someone you know loses a job. it's a depression if you lose your job.
This post was edited on 2/15/12 at 11:08 pm
Posted on 2/15/12 at 11:25 pm to MoreOrLes
Was that a "best of the politalk board" post?
Posted on 2/16/12 at 3:43 am to kfizzle85
I'm a bit older them most here. So, this is my take.
I see the future as it is now for the next 2 years. Just maybe after the 2012 election, we might see some growth, but not much. Here in the south, we are doing much better compared to the rest of the country.
Housing here in the south did take a beating on homes in the 500K+ price range. In fact, houses in the 800K or bigger has took even bigger hits. This will keep in place for many years to come. Hosues in the 200K range will keep there prices somewhat. Banks will still keep moneys tight even in the south. Home loans will still demand 20% down payments, which it should in the first place.
Jobs here in the south will grow in the oil patch field were others will remain about the same growth.
Over all, the GDP will grow at a very slow rate for the next two years or even longer. A lot of this will depend on what happens in the world markets which looks like crap for years to come.
I see the future as it is now for the next 2 years. Just maybe after the 2012 election, we might see some growth, but not much. Here in the south, we are doing much better compared to the rest of the country.
Housing here in the south did take a beating on homes in the 500K+ price range. In fact, houses in the 800K or bigger has took even bigger hits. This will keep in place for many years to come. Hosues in the 200K range will keep there prices somewhat. Banks will still keep moneys tight even in the south. Home loans will still demand 20% down payments, which it should in the first place.
Jobs here in the south will grow in the oil patch field were others will remain about the same growth.
Over all, the GDP will grow at a very slow rate for the next two years or even longer. A lot of this will depend on what happens in the world markets which looks like crap for years to come.
Posted on 2/16/12 at 12:12 pm to fishfighter
quote:
Housing here in the south did take a beating on homes in the 500K+ price range. In fact, houses in the 800K or bigger has took even bigger hits. This will keep in place for many years to come. Hosues in the 200K range will keep there prices somewhat. Banks will still keep moneys tight even in the south. Home loans will still demand 20% down payments, which it should in the first place.
You have forgotten about the alarming rate of short sales. While it is true that we in the south have had it better than others all price ranges are down at least 30% imo. I dont think we have hit the bottom yet......many shortsales and foreclosures still to come. Commercial property always follows residential trends by a 2 or three years. Many commercial loans will be maturing in 2012,13,14,15. And when they do those property owners who have seen nothing in the way of rent increases but have seen overhead increase alot will have some tough decisions to make. IMO there will be a flood of commercial properties foreclosed or surrendered during that time.
IMO we havent even started to get our financial house in order. Essentially all we have done is financed the downturn and printed unknown quantities of paper to do it.
This potus election is the most important election in US history IMO.
Posted on 2/16/12 at 12:18 pm to MoreOrLes
quote:
MoreOrLes
What do you do for a living (Not attacking, just asking)?
Your logic is sound, but that's not at all the vibe I have been getting recently.
Posted on 2/16/12 at 12:20 pm to LSU Piston
quote:
But for the financial experts on this board, how do you feel about the economy? Improving slowly? In line for a double-dip recession? Worried about the Federal debt? I am interested to know.
I think it's improving rapidly. It still has a long way to go to catch up, but there has been an incredibly long streak of mostly positive economic data points.
Posted on 2/16/12 at 12:28 pm to LSU Piston
quote:
how do you feel about the economy?
I'm very optimistic. Was in "wait and see" mode for a while, but I'm definitely optimistic now.
quote:
Improving slowly?
Yes, slow growth, but growth nonetheless.
quote:
In line for a double-dip recession?
No. It would take an unpredictable external event to cause a double-dip recession IMO.
quote:
Worried about the Federal debt?
Naw. Never have been really. It's not as bad as the media and political campaigning makes it out to be.
Posted on 2/16/12 at 12:38 pm to LSU Piston
Biz Con. Been shouting it out from the rooftops for 30 years. Everything I said on this board when I came on proved to be right. It's an axiom of economics. When business perceives that they have an enemy in power, they sit on their capital. We're seeing it.
Solution: Get the enemy of business out of power.
Solution: Get the enemy of business out of power.
Posted on 2/16/12 at 12:45 pm to Zach
One of my best friends owns his own business, & had outstanding credit & made great money as a one-man operation.
He operates on ridiculous margins & barring a miracle, his product/service will never cease being in demand.
He got screwed the past few years. Some of it was his own doing. Some of it was banks taking away lines of credit that he never needed, coupled with a lot of the entities that owe him making unilateral decisions on his A/R to extend the turn-around-time on paying his invoices.
It stretched him to the limit and he's been more tight this past winter than ever before. I think its taught him some great lessons, and he'll never truly be "out of work" per se, though he's had to take some good looks at his lifestyle and thought twice about where he's found himself.
I know at least one other mutual friend of ours whose also self-employed who got put into a bind when banks whom he had outstanding relationships with let them know that their lines of credit were simply no more. This puts tremendous strain on their flexibility. They can't bid on the really big jobs because they can't afford to have multiple crews out on jobs because they can't pay them adequately. It keeps them small, & prevents them from expanding aggressively.
I know there are many other small business owners & entrepreneurs who are in a similar situation. When those credit markets come back & are re-extended so to speak, I know the ones that are still around are going to emerge as leaner, wiser companies that can stand the test of time.
But to say that times never got tough is pretty myopic. Lots of guys that made great livings as very successfull small business owners were stretched to the breaking point by the changes made by local & regional banks & the drying up of credit markets.
He operates on ridiculous margins & barring a miracle, his product/service will never cease being in demand.
He got screwed the past few years. Some of it was his own doing. Some of it was banks taking away lines of credit that he never needed, coupled with a lot of the entities that owe him making unilateral decisions on his A/R to extend the turn-around-time on paying his invoices.
It stretched him to the limit and he's been more tight this past winter than ever before. I think its taught him some great lessons, and he'll never truly be "out of work" per se, though he's had to take some good looks at his lifestyle and thought twice about where he's found himself.
I know at least one other mutual friend of ours whose also self-employed who got put into a bind when banks whom he had outstanding relationships with let them know that their lines of credit were simply no more. This puts tremendous strain on their flexibility. They can't bid on the really big jobs because they can't afford to have multiple crews out on jobs because they can't pay them adequately. It keeps them small, & prevents them from expanding aggressively.
I know there are many other small business owners & entrepreneurs who are in a similar situation. When those credit markets come back & are re-extended so to speak, I know the ones that are still around are going to emerge as leaner, wiser companies that can stand the test of time.
But to say that times never got tough is pretty myopic. Lots of guys that made great livings as very successfull small business owners were stretched to the breaking point by the changes made by local & regional banks & the drying up of credit markets.
Posted on 2/16/12 at 12:49 pm to TheHiddenFlask
I think we are on a Wussy Uptrend. Meaning that we won't have a double dip (actually would be a new recession entirely but people continue to use this term) and the market will continue generally upwards. But any unpriced in events will cause larger than they should bear periods due to an inherent uneasiness that investors are bearing like a cross.
Most large corps are in supreme fighting shape. They are leaner and meaner having gone through the last several years and have tons of cash on hand. We will see a better picture after the elections but if companies start feel comfortable with the political climate and deploy their cash on new hires I think the next couple of years will be strong.
The debt has to be dealt with soon (next year after elections) and how that is handled will have an a big impact. I don't see any way out except to cause pain somewhere and as long as they do it with out overtaxing the economic growth engines we should be much more stable this decade than last.
I believe it was Warren Buffet who said that he couldn't tell you the direction of the market for the next 1000 point swing, but he could tell you the direction of the next 10,000 point move.
Most large corps are in supreme fighting shape. They are leaner and meaner having gone through the last several years and have tons of cash on hand. We will see a better picture after the elections but if companies start feel comfortable with the political climate and deploy their cash on new hires I think the next couple of years will be strong.
The debt has to be dealt with soon (next year after elections) and how that is handled will have an a big impact. I don't see any way out except to cause pain somewhere and as long as they do it with out overtaxing the economic growth engines we should be much more stable this decade than last.
I believe it was Warren Buffet who said that he couldn't tell you the direction of the market for the next 1000 point swing, but he could tell you the direction of the next 10,000 point move.
Posted on 2/16/12 at 1:20 pm to LSU Piston
But for the financial experts on this board, how do you feel about the economy?
I've seen better days... but I am more cautious than anything
Improving slowly?
Yes, it's improving but we have real structural problems that need solving. Housing, tax code, etc needs to be addressed. Business is still in a period of uncertainty. Lots of companies sitting on capital that they could be using for investment and hiring.
In line for a double-dip recession?
No, but a worsening recession in Europe, followed by contractions in China, Brazil and India economies could hurt the recovery. Also, the middle east side show mixed in with surging oil prices could throw us into another recession. (Not sure we still are out of the last recession?)
Worried about the Federal debt?
Not really, harsh austerity would be a disaster if certain people got their way. Although, it's a freaking joke nobody balances the budget or even attempts too. Curving spending over time and new tax revenues are the only way out.
I've seen better days... but I am more cautious than anything
Improving slowly?
Yes, it's improving but we have real structural problems that need solving. Housing, tax code, etc needs to be addressed. Business is still in a period of uncertainty. Lots of companies sitting on capital that they could be using for investment and hiring.
In line for a double-dip recession?
No, but a worsening recession in Europe, followed by contractions in China, Brazil and India economies could hurt the recovery. Also, the middle east side show mixed in with surging oil prices could throw us into another recession. (Not sure we still are out of the last recession?)
Worried about the Federal debt?
Not really, harsh austerity would be a disaster if certain people got their way. Although, it's a freaking joke nobody balances the budget or even attempts too. Curving spending over time and new tax revenues are the only way out.
This post was edited on 2/16/12 at 1:24 pm
Posted on 2/16/12 at 5:11 pm to TheHiddenFlask
I am in real estate. I can tell you from being in the trenches that many folks seem to be barely hanging on.
My feeling is that the real estate correction is no where near finished. it is my opinion that large banks are carrying a sea of distressed property. Both in.the residential, and as I said, commercial distressed property will become more prevalent for years to come.
Until these bad assets are cleansed from the books of the various institutions we will not see any increase in the real estate market in general.
Bare in mind that prior to the bust of 08, Banks were not in the property business. It did not behoove them to tolerate late mortgage payments and shortsales.
Also with high fuel prices comes high construction cost which will further hurt real estate.
Quite frankly I don't see the economy getting much better anytime soon. Interest rates might even stay low much like Japans lost decade but it won't help the masses. If they do get to 6 or above look for stagnation.
My feeling is that the real estate correction is no where near finished. it is my opinion that large banks are carrying a sea of distressed property. Both in.the residential, and as I said, commercial distressed property will become more prevalent for years to come.
Until these bad assets are cleansed from the books of the various institutions we will not see any increase in the real estate market in general.
Bare in mind that prior to the bust of 08, Banks were not in the property business. It did not behoove them to tolerate late mortgage payments and shortsales.
Also with high fuel prices comes high construction cost which will further hurt real estate.
Quite frankly I don't see the economy getting much better anytime soon. Interest rates might even stay low much like Japans lost decade but it won't help the masses. If they do get to 6 or above look for stagnation.
This post was edited on 2/16/12 at 5:13 pm
Posted on 2/16/12 at 6:16 pm to MoreOrLes
I'm in real estate as well. There has been a noticeable uptick in business in the last three months. The value of the property is not rising, but the volume of sales are. People with the means to do so are buying up investment property now. I see nothing but blue skies an occasional chance of rain.
Posted on 2/16/12 at 7:21 pm to MoreOrLes
quote:
Also with high fuel prices comes high construction cost which will further hurt real estate.
How does that work? Wouldn't higher construction costs improve the value of standing buildings?
I only have a few metros that I know much about CRE, but I think the trends you are talking about are more regional than national.
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