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Game theory and the Super Bowl
Posted on 2/9/12 at 9:18 pm
Posted on 2/9/12 at 9:18 pm
quote:
Your team has the ball, and it’s 4th and goal on the opponent’s seven yard line. Your team has a four point lead, and there are 12 seconds to go in the game. Do you want your team to *a) kick the field goal and go up by 7 and then kick off; or (b) play keep-away to use the remaining time by running to your own endzone and allowing yourself to be ultimately tackled for a safety?
Freakonomics blog post on Superbowl.
ending question to recent Freakonomics blog post, after being informed of rules regarding conversions. Above question is valid so how what's your strategy here?
18
Posted on 2/9/12 at 9:20 pm to RonBurgundy
Kick the FG. Too many things could go wrong otherwise.
Posted on 2/9/12 at 9:20 pm to RonBurgundy
quote:
play keep-away to use the remaining time by running to your own endzone and allowing yourself to be ultimately tackled for a safety?
ive always wanted to see someone do this so this is my answer because of that. would be so awesome.
Posted on 2/9/12 at 9:20 pm to Don K Punch
quote:
Kick the FG. Too many things could go wrong otherwise.
This
Posted on 2/9/12 at 9:22 pm to RonBurgundy
If the jackass fumbled playing keep away the coach would be slaughtered.
Kick the field goal.
Kick the field goal.
Posted on 2/9/12 at 9:27 pm to FalseProphet
12 seconds is too much time. Kick the FG and go up by 7. If you miss a chip shot FG and then give up a touchdown with less than 10 seconds left (after the FG and kickoff) you deserve to lose anyway.
Posted on 2/9/12 at 9:28 pm to RonBurgundy
Why not just run the ball up the middle and take up 4-5 seconds and make them go 93 yards in 7 seconds?
Posted on 2/9/12 at 9:30 pm to ChixDigScars
quote:
Why not just run the ball up the middle and take up 4-5 seconds and make them go 93 yards in 7 seconds?
No brainer, IMO.
This post was edited on 2/9/12 at 9:31 pm
Posted on 2/9/12 at 9:35 pm to ChixDigScars
quote:
Why not just run the ball up the middle and take up 4-5 seconds and make them go 93 yards in 7 seconds?
clearly the author of the question(not me, just reposting) hadn't considered this.
however lets move the yard line back to the 30. still same answer?
This post was edited on 2/9/12 at 9:37 pm
Posted on 2/9/12 at 9:40 pm to RonBurgundy
quote:
play keep-away to use the remaining time by running to your own endzone and allowing yourself to be ultimately tackled for a safety?
There are a few options-
Running 93 yards in an attempt to take a safety, is not one!
Posted on 2/9/12 at 10:04 pm to ChixDigScars
quote:
Why not just run the ball up the middle and take up 4-5 seconds and make them go 93 yards in 7 seconds?
because even your fastest guy won't get the safety before 7-8 seconds run off. and that's if he hauls fricking arse
that means you punt off with 4-5 seconds left and they need to score a FG, which means they have to either throw a hail mary from their 30 or try to run the kickoff back
Posted on 2/9/12 at 10:05 pm to TigerintheNO
quote:
Running 93 yards in an attempt to take a safety, is not one!
why not? it essentially guarantees victory with very little risk
line up in a victory-like formation, and have your QB hand off to your fastest offensive player. have 3 men act as a reverse wedge behind him. the defense couldn't stop him unless he was the slowest offensive player in the NFL
Posted on 2/9/12 at 10:09 pm to RonBurgundy
I think you have your qb drop back, kill as much clock as possible, and throw the ball out of the end zone.
Posted on 2/9/12 at 10:11 pm to SlowFlowPro
You don't even have to take the safety immediately. With the defense having to fight through some blocks, I could easily see this taking up the whole 12 seconds.
Posted on 2/9/12 at 10:24 pm to jturn17
quote:
You don't even have to take the safety immediately. With the defense having to fight through some blocks, I could easily see this taking up the whole 12 seconds.
agreed, but that puts the ball at risk. having your sproles haul arse towards the end zone will take 9-10 seconds likely
Posted on 2/9/12 at 10:31 pm to Ric Flair
quote:
I think you have your qb drop back, kill as much clock as possible, and throw the ball out of the end zone.
Hed have to sprint back to a point on the field where he could throw it threw the back of te endzone with ease because if he throws short, its a live ball fumble.
I dont think Brady or Brees is winning a foot race versus a DB chasing him in that situation
Posted on 2/9/12 at 10:41 pm to wildtigercat93
you could have 3 guys off the ball staggered, waiting to block anyone running after the offensive player
then have 2 guys on the perimeter to jam DBs
then have 2 guys on the perimeter to jam DBs
Posted on 2/9/12 at 10:46 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
why not? it essentially guarantees victory with very little risk
A 93 yard dash into your own endzone might work(but it would have risk), but like I said there are much better options.
2 wrs in a pattern & QB in shotgun=
5 OLs, 1 TEs, 2 RBs all holding/tackling. The QB can wait and wait then throw the ball with as much hang time out of the back of the endzone.
If time runs out & they accept a penalty(s)- take a knee.
If time some how time remains- your opponent has to go 93 yards in one play with 11 guys defending it.
Posted on 2/9/12 at 10:49 pm to TigerintheNO
quote:
The QB can wait and wait then throw the ball with as much hang time out of the back of the endzone.
the risk of a sack is a lot worse than the risk of my fast guy getting tackled
Posted on 2/9/12 at 11:04 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
the risk of a sack is a lot worse than the risk of my fast guy getting tackled
I'm pretty sure that a pro-QB, whose only mission is to avoid a sack (with 9 players holding) has better odds then who ever you chose to run 93 yards into his endzone.
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