re: Hoops: LSU (11-4, 1-0) at Bama (12-3, 1-0) - Wed 8pm - TV:CSS/COX4

(no message)

espn3.com will be online. We talk about 2 diff places in this thread man,.

quote:

---

Jesterea

---

76-57 Bama

quote:

---

SoS’s SEC Power Rankings

1. Kentucky
2. Florida
3. Vanderbilt
4. Alabama
5. Miss St
6. LSU
7. Arkansas
8. Tennessee
9. South Carolina
10. Ole Miss
11. Georgia
12. Auburn

*Note that SEC will probably get 4-5 teams into NCAA Tourny.

General Overview

LSU heads on the road to face a tough Alabama team Wednesday night at 8:00PM vs Bama. This is a big matchup between two of the top contenders from what most fans know as the “Western Division” (note: SEC Basketball does not have divisions). Bama has been in and out of the top 25 this year and pack some star power. Most fans will remember JaMychal Green the Senior All SEC forward and Tony Mitchell their leading scorer. They also bring in 2 highly touted freshman; Levi Randolph and Trevor Lacey.

This Bama squad is another team known for their suffocating man to man defense. They have the 6th highest defensive efficiency (KenPom.com) in the country (LSU is 21). Both big men can block shots and they have had very good perimeter defense. They have allowed only 25% from 3pt land (5th in country) and only 41.6% from 2pt (16th in country). If there defense has a flaw it has been rebounding, a spot LSU looks to take advantage of in this game.

Schedule and SEC stakes

Bama has played a tough schedule and have beated some good teams. Wins include neutral games with Purdue and Witchita St, as well as away games at Georgia Tech and Georgia. They haven’t played very good competition at home. They had a very convincing win at Georgia to start their SEC play winning 74-59.

Alabama is in a very similar situation as us starting 2 freshman, but they have higher expectations. I think this is the best team we could pass up to get into NCAA position. Being able to at least split this home and home with Bama would be HUGE and I mean gigantic if we are looking to get into the Tournament. They have a lot of respect from the nation as a solid squad filled with good freshman and solid leaders.

Though they are talented in the post, they do not have a ton of size and Hamilton will be a major matchup problem for Bama. JaMychal Green was injured a few weeks ago but came off the bench the past two games. I expect him to be back in the starting lineup for this one. They know they will need his defensive presence. Here are the matchups we will see with the starting 5:

PG Matchup

#1 Anthony Hickey 5’10” 172 Freshman
Vs.

#12 Trevor Releford 6’1” 180 Sophomore

2 Guard Matchup

#10 Andre Stringer 5’9” 170 Sophomore
Vs.

#3 Trevor Lacey 6’3” 200 Freshman

3 Guard Matchup

#22 Ralston Turner 6’6” 193 Sophomore
Vs.

#20 Levi Randolph 6’5” 185 Freshman

Forward Matchup

#24 Storm Warren 6’7” 230 Senior
Vs.

#5 Tony Mitchell 6’6” 210 Junior

Center Matchup

#41 Justin Hamilton 7’0” 260 Junior
Vs.

#1 JaMychal Green 6’8” 240 Senior

Stats:



Overall, these teams are very similar. Bama likes to drive and get fouled more than LSU and they are an athletic bunch that haven’t been able to consistently knock down the three pointer, which has been LSU’s weakness (perimeter defense). I honestly think the matchup favors LSU. I think our height advantage down low will be able to contain Bama’s offense. Like I have said in the past, for LSU to be successful they will need a good game from Hamilton and Storm while getting at least 1 of our guards to step up and hit the three. Last game Hickey stepped up and nailed 4/5 from deep and to win this one we will need a similar game out of someone.

I think Bass coming off the bench is another key to LSU. He has come into games and really controlled the tempo. TJ has used him very well and the team has responded while CBass has been in. As long as we have scorers on the floor, which Bass certainly is not, he has been productive. He leads the team in A/TO with a 2.2 ratio and has had 5 games in which he played more than 10 minutes with 0 turnovers. From the PG position that is lights out.

Prediction:
LSU 60 Bama 55

---

Bama has been bringing Green off the bench as he recovers from a shoulder injury, and has played beeter it seems with this rotation. Nick Jacobs has been starting at center - he is a big 6'8 body with a sweet lefty baby hook, but LSU will contest that shot fiercely.

Also - guard Andrew Steel was cleared to play recently, after thinking he was going to have to give up the game due to consussion issues. Bama has played much better since his return - Andrew is experienced and brings toughness and a defensive stopper mindset.

Bama has also been shooting the perimeter shot better, and our overall % is now at 47% from the field per game. 3 point % is still at 28%, but improving as the young players mature.

Bama is very deep, and most guys will see at least a couple of minutes. The freshman are maturing and they will be playing at home in front of an energized crowd - I think Bama gets it done tonight.

There should be an energized home crowd,

Everything you put is almost identical to LSU. Should be good.

quote:

---

Everything you put is almost identical to LSU. Should be good.

---

LSU has 2 things that can hurt Bama - a quality Center and a team that attacks the glass.

I will be interested in seeing how much man LSU plays - conventional wisdom has teams playing a lot of zone against us, because of Green and questionable shooting.

However, Bama is starting to look really comfortable attacking a 2-3 type look. Green has really spent more time on the perimeter than in the post this year, and against UGA Bama really moved the ball well off Green in a high post. Jacobs has been our true post scoring threat.

Bama has 3 pices that make us hard to defend, when they are on the floor together - a PG that can penetrate and finish in Releford, Green in the post, and Mitchell on the wing - who can attck the rim or also shows an improved perimeter shot. Another key in what should be a defensive game - FT shooting. Bama is at just under 72%, but I expect that number to rise. Green is at 71% but should be at close to 80%, Mitchell has not shot well from the line either - but in the stretch I expect a lot of Releford and Steele on the court together, and they are at 88% and 100% as of now.

Alabama has a 7 footer in Karl Engstrom, who really is no offensive threat, and is still learning the game, but has provided minutes inside. Also, 7 foot JC Moussa Gueye is returning from knee surgery, and has played in one game. I would not be shocked to see a couple of minutes for him depending on game flow, fouls, etc - tho I think the staff would rather not have to go that way.

quote:

---

quote:


will be interested in seeing how much man LSU plays




My guess is quite a bit, they've been playing pretty much exclusive man defense for most of the year. I'm betting they are gonna let Hamilton man up on Green down low and try to take away the outside shot.


quote:


a PG that can penetrate and finish in Releford




This is going to be important, want to see how Hickey handles a player like this on defense.

---

Releford is small, but has a knack of scoring inside against bigger players. As far as man, I would expect LSU to start out with it and see what happens. Ga Tech and UGA played a ton of zone, but Alabama looked a lot better against it in our last two games.

Green has not been much of a factor in the post this year - wonder if Alabama will put him on the block.

I also would not be surprided to see us try to post a couple of our bigger guards if the opportunity is there - ie Lacey and Randolph.

quote:

---

LSU has played man almost every minute of every game so I dont see us going to zone. If your PG is too quick for Hickey look for a ton of CBass. Our defense has also been really good at taking charges. I imagine our low post guys will step in and take one a few times this game.

If yall plan on doing this Turner is also 6'6" and Courtney who has been playing guard is 6'8" so we can man up on big guards.

---

You will have lots of chances to draw charges, I fear.

Also, Nick Jacobs usually has 2 fould before the National Anthem ends

quote:

---

You will have lots of chances to draw charges, I fear.

Also, Nick Jacobs usually has 2 fould before the National Anthem ends

---

Should be a good game. Hope we can keep the starters on the court and not have a foul happy ref or two. LSU lost some major depth when JOB3 went out.