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Posted on 4/20/10 at 6:57 pm to OBUDan
The one glaring hole in your argument OBUDan is that JJ had a running game in the spring game and looked like his head was up his arse.
Even knowing that he wasn't going to get hit, was rarely on target, even adding in three drops.
I don't deny that the running game was non-existent last year, but trying to paint JJ as some great gift to quarterbacking is just stretching it. When we needed him to make plays, he rarely made them - period.
Now, if he's the starter come September, then by God I'll be pulling for him to prove me wrong, just as I'll be pulling for every guy wearing P&G every fall Saturday.
Just as some of us could see that Smoke wasn't the answer for the baseball team, I'm just not convinced that JJ's the answer for the football team, and I'm not really sure if that guy is on scholarship yet.
Even knowing that he wasn't going to get hit, was rarely on target, even adding in three drops.
I don't deny that the running game was non-existent last year, but trying to paint JJ as some great gift to quarterbacking is just stretching it. When we needed him to make plays, he rarely made them - period.
Now, if he's the starter come September, then by God I'll be pulling for him to prove me wrong, just as I'll be pulling for every guy wearing P&G every fall Saturday.
Just as some of us could see that Smoke wasn't the answer for the baseball team, I'm just not convinced that JJ's the answer for the football team, and I'm not really sure if that guy is on scholarship yet.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:00 pm to OBUDan
Great post. It's easy to see why the OL struggled when you look at all the beef that either transferred or got shown the door for breaking team rules. It's hard to start young undersized guys on the OL in the SEC and have a dominate running game. Hopefully that unit will mature more over the summer and play better. The good news is we should find out in the first game if we are going to be able to run the ball better this season.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:14 pm to OBUDan
Flynn didnt get sacked 9 million times either 
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:14 pm to mtntiger
It's all of the above. Poor offensive line play, sorry scheming, piss-poor QB play, and a complete lack of answers from the staff. Comparing Flynn to JJ at the present time is really kind of silly, no matter what stats are dug up. Flynn beat AU, Alabama, and Fla in the fourth quarter and was instrumental in the routs of VT and OSU. His pass blocking was as miserable as JJ's in the Bama, Tulane, and Arky games. Nobody played 9 men within 8 yards of the LOS routinely in '07 since when they did Early, Byrd, or Lafell wound up with the ball.
I'd also note that without Flynn LSU managed 14 points on offense against a mediocre Tenn team in the SECCG. Same line, same running game. super hyped QB. Flynn was a winner at LSU every time he started except 2, and that happened in OT. From memory we beat the #1 ranked (OSU), and #3 (VT) ranked teams that year and the defending NC. And yes, we were the best team in the country with the same sort of inconsistency we have seen since Miles has been here, as we had been the year before.
JJ has two more years to measure up. Right now he's not close. Hope he does but I doubt it. I see a cross between Lester Ricard in physical skill and Josh Booty mentally. I agree with the previous poster that the guy to match Flynn's record, not stats, may not be on the team yet.
I'd also note that without Flynn LSU managed 14 points on offense against a mediocre Tenn team in the SECCG. Same line, same running game. super hyped QB. Flynn was a winner at LSU every time he started except 2, and that happened in OT. From memory we beat the #1 ranked (OSU), and #3 (VT) ranked teams that year and the defending NC. And yes, we were the best team in the country with the same sort of inconsistency we have seen since Miles has been here, as we had been the year before.
JJ has two more years to measure up. Right now he's not close. Hope he does but I doubt it. I see a cross between Lester Ricard in physical skill and Josh Booty mentally. I agree with the previous poster that the guy to match Flynn's record, not stats, may not be on the team yet.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:17 pm to matt314
quote:
From memory we beat the #1 ranked (OSU), and #3 (VT) ranked teams that year and the defending NC
These are team accomplishments. The topic is on individuals regardless of accomplishments.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:17 pm to matt314
I'd be interesting in seeing passing/rushing statistics on first down. I think that might tell a story about teams respecting Flynn and not Jefferson.. but that's just a hunch.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:19 pm to OBUDan
Some defensive stats to consider as well:
Average Total Defense faced in 2009 (YPG) Ranking: 51.5
Average Total Defense faced in 2009 (YPG) Yardage: 345.49
Average Total Defense faced in 2009 (Scoring) Ranking: 52
Average Total Defense faced in 2009 (Scoring) Pts.: 23.02
Average Total Defense faced in 2007 (YPG) Ranking: 46.84
Average Total Defense faced in 2007 (YPG) Total: 359.9
Average Total Defense faced in 2007 (Scoring) Ranking: 45.84
Average Total Defense faced in 2007 (Scoring) Pts.: 24.14
Average Total Defense faced in 2009 (YPG) Ranking: 51.5
Average Total Defense faced in 2009 (YPG) Yardage: 345.49
Average Total Defense faced in 2009 (Scoring) Ranking: 52
Average Total Defense faced in 2009 (Scoring) Pts.: 23.02
Average Total Defense faced in 2007 (YPG) Ranking: 46.84
Average Total Defense faced in 2007 (YPG) Total: 359.9
Average Total Defense faced in 2007 (Scoring) Ranking: 45.84
Average Total Defense faced in 2007 (Scoring) Pts.: 24.14
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:21 pm to c on z
quote:
Is your next posts a summary of this link, because this link doesn't work for me.
Really? Works fine for me.
You can try searching the thread.
Title: Attrition - Breaking Down the Numbers (very long)
Author: OBUDan
If that doesn't work, shoot me an email @ Obudan@gmail.com. I'll copy/paste it for you.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:23 pm to OBUDan
Nice work OBUDan. The big question then is how is our o-line progressing?
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:24 pm to mtntiger
quote:
The one glaring hole in your argument OBUDan is that JJ had a running game in the spring game and looked like his head was up his arse.
It's a spring game... Jarrett Lee looked like Peyton Manning in every spring game to date.
quote:
but trying to paint JJ as some great gift to quarterbacking is just stretching it.
I said pretty clearly at the outset that I wasn't doing this.
quote:
When we needed him to make plays, he rarely made them - period.
He did it on 3rd downs as well as Flynn. I used 3rd down because it is considered the quintessential down where you "must convert."
What other times are you talking about?
Sure there are plenty of instances where he didn't make plays and it hurt us, but the data suggests that he makes them at a high enough rate to still field an extremely potent offense.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:28 pm to XbengalTiger
quote:
Great post. It's easy to see why the OL struggled when you look at all the beef that either transferred or got shown the door for breaking team rules. It's hard to start young undersized guys on the OL in the SEC and have a dominate running game. Hopefully that unit will mature more over the summer and play better. The good news is we should find out in the first game if we are going to be able to run the ball better this season.
Yeah, I'm not a huge proponent of drawing conclusions from the spring game, but the OL looked good and I don't think the 1st unit played together that much.
Here's what I like that makes me feel good:
1) Insertion of Blackwell and Hurst.
Whether people realize it or not, Hurst played A TON down the stretch. They were swapping series with him and Hitt and watching the tape there was a NOTICEABLE difference. Hurst was blowing Ole Miss defenders off the ball. He's a big, nasty dude.
Similarly, Blackwell played a good bit last year and he's a bigger body with more of a road grater mentality.
Hitt was plain horrible last season, easy as that.
Longergan is a physical upgrade at C and should have the mental aspects down pat now.
I actually think Josh D. will be a fine LG. He got beat some last year but not for lack of effort or technique. Just got out muscled. He'll have a ton of time to add the bulk and I think we could see a totally different player there.
My biggest concern is Barksdale transitioning to LT. I think he can do it, but we'll see. Black was never the LT we maybe once thought. He benefited A TON from playing next to Herman Johnson... and it showed last year.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:33 pm to c on z
Tennis singles may have valid individual accomplishments, and even that is qualified by the opponent. Maybe some track and field events (pre-steroid).
In football there are always 11 players on the field by rule.
They do keep score however and winning as a measure of success is universal to all sports. JJ was no more fully responsible for our 9 wins than he was for our 3 losses. LSU earned our #110 or so offensive ranking the old fashioned way. Poor play by a number of our offensive players on a lot of plays.
Flynn was on the field for some of LSU's most memorable victories, some of them fourth quarter comebacks. JJ has none, unless you want to name GT. The rest is just stats.
If it makes you feel better so be it. We'll know one way or another in late November.
In football there are always 11 players on the field by rule.
They do keep score however and winning as a measure of success is universal to all sports. JJ was no more fully responsible for our 9 wins than he was for our 3 losses. LSU earned our #110 or so offensive ranking the old fashioned way. Poor play by a number of our offensive players on a lot of plays.
Flynn was on the field for some of LSU's most memorable victories, some of them fourth quarter comebacks. JJ has none, unless you want to name GT. The rest is just stats.
If it makes you feel better so be it. We'll know one way or another in late November.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:34 pm to matt314
quote:
Flynn beat AU
He made a throw there, yes.
quote:
Alabama
Flynn's shitty play in the 1st half are part of the reason it took a 4th quarter comeback to beat them that year.
quote:
Fla
They weren't very good that year. And Flynn played poorly in that game. That game was won by Hester and the defense. We rushed for 247 yards that game. I don't think we hit 247 on a single opponent this season, good or bad.
quote:
was instrumental in the routs of VT and OSU.
Flynn played great against OSU but didn't throw a TD against VTech. And against VTech we tallied 297 rush yards. Again, I'd love to see what JJ could have done if we put up 250+ rush yards on opponents.
quote:
Flynn was a winner at LSU every time he started except 2, and that happened in OT.
Both against subpar opponents, and both times he played shitty and played a major hand in us losing.
quote:
Right now he's not close.
You are putting entire team success upon a QB. It's just not that simple.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:37 pm to bmy
quote:
I'd be interesting in seeing passing/rushing statistics on first down. I think that might tell a story about teams respecting Flynn and not Jefferson.. but that's just a hunch.
I started to compile this, but just didn't continue because it was too much.
I'll look into for the future.
It would take a lot more than just basic percentages. I'd have to look at not only play call (run vs. pass), but yardage gained would be considered differently as well.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:42 pm to OBUDan
I wish I had the time and resources to compile statistics like this. While I'm not entirely convinced that Jefferson is on the same playing field as Flynn... this leaves little the the imagination. The fact is that in his first season playing, he was taking snaps from behind a horrendous O-Line.
It's telling that the only objection to this post is results from a spring game, in which all quarterbacks typically struggle, and in which Jefferson was throwing into the best secondary in the country. It's easy to put up numbers like we saw from Brantley, McElroy, and McCarron when they're throwing against piss-poor coverage.
It's telling that the only objection to this post is results from a spring game, in which all quarterbacks typically struggle, and in which Jefferson was throwing into the best secondary in the country. It's easy to put up numbers like we saw from Brantley, McElroy, and McCarron when they're throwing against piss-poor coverage.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:47 pm to OBUDan
What % was a failed 3-long given to QB SAC?
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:49 pm to chilge1
Wow. Awesome analysis. It does give us hope for next season. I already know I will be at the Florida game...can't wait.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:56 pm to OBUDan
Just want to say... great post.
Thank you for bringing some much needed logic, reason, and sanity to this board.
I don't think anyone believes Jefferson is anything better than a good/average quarterback right now, but he may get there yet.
The biggest source of our woes is the running game, which has been hampered by the O-Line and somewhat by Crowton. It's unfair to lump all of our offensive troubles on Jefferson. He's made plenty of mistakes, to be sure, but I think he still has a lot of untapped potential.
Thank you for bringing some much needed logic, reason, and sanity to this board.
I don't think anyone believes Jefferson is anything better than a good/average quarterback right now, but he may get there yet.
The biggest source of our woes is the running game, which has been hampered by the O-Line and somewhat by Crowton. It's unfair to lump all of our offensive troubles on Jefferson. He's made plenty of mistakes, to be sure, but I think he still has a lot of untapped potential.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 7:57 pm to OBUDan
Flynn was also the acknowledged leader of that '07 team, which was a team full of leadership types. Ask the players.
Tearing down Flynn's accomplishments to build up JJ is a curious exercise. It will eventually be measured by the sum of their careers, not by some silly statistical analysis. Roger Federer does not win many more total points than the good players that he plays, but he wins the majority of the big ones. He's at his best when he has to be. A real competitor. That's why he wins all those tournaments. Winning the big ones over the long term is the measure.
JJ will start and will have his chance to prove his critics or his supporters wrong or right. He and Les, and maybe Crowton, will have at least two years together to lead LSU and get that championship thing done. Let's say an SECCG rather than the BCS, which requires a lot of luck. When they do I'll revisit the topic of comparing JJ to Flynn.
Tearing down Flynn's accomplishments to build up JJ is a curious exercise. It will eventually be measured by the sum of their careers, not by some silly statistical analysis. Roger Federer does not win many more total points than the good players that he plays, but he wins the majority of the big ones. He's at his best when he has to be. A real competitor. That's why he wins all those tournaments. Winning the big ones over the long term is the measure.
JJ will start and will have his chance to prove his critics or his supporters wrong or right. He and Les, and maybe Crowton, will have at least two years together to lead LSU and get that championship thing done. Let's say an SECCG rather than the BCS, which requires a lot of luck. When they do I'll revisit the topic of comparing JJ to Flynn.
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