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Tropical Storm Cindy
Posted on 6/10/17 at 12:01 pm
Posted on 6/10/17 at 12:01 pm
Posted on 6/10/17 at 12:05 pm to rds dc
Is this our annual hurricane season long thread?
rds dc > Weather channel goofs
rds dc > Weather channel goofs
Posted on 6/10/17 at 12:08 pm to rds dc
My body is
[ready]
not ready
[ready]
not ready
Posted on 6/10/17 at 12:11 pm to East Coast Band
I only trust Rummy with weather related stupidity
Posted on 6/10/17 at 12:18 pm to rds dc
What's the outlook for Punta Cana?
Posted on 6/10/17 at 12:19 pm to rds dc
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/19/21 at 10:53 pm
Posted on 6/10/17 at 2:31 pm to rds dc
12z model runs from today:
Euro @ D10:
GFS farther out:
New Version of GFS:
All of these are very low confidence solutions. I'll explain later why this storm probably won't happen.
Euro @ D10:
GFS farther out:
New Version of GFS:
All of these are very low confidence solutions. I'll explain later why this storm probably won't happen.
Posted on 6/10/17 at 2:38 pm to rds dc
This is ridiculous for them to even have these models this far out. They can barely predict the weather correctly for tomorrow. All this does is make our local weather man predict doom and gloom to try to boost ratings. Last weekend he predicted we would get 6+ inches of rain. Didn't even get 3.
Posted on 6/11/17 at 8:22 am to rds dc
That euro shot is deceiving. The pressure shown supports a TS/Cat 1, and is usually overblown by the EURO anyways. The large pressure field typical of this time of year also makes this potential storm look bigger than it actually would be. IMO it all depends, if this thing even forms, where it comes off the yucatan. East would be more favorable than west, and both the GFS and EURO seem to agree with this line of thinking.
GFS and EURO haven't shown any trends aside from there being some type of low pressure system at 10 days out. The euro is also overblowing the setup intermittently, including developing that little system east of the lesser antilles.
GFS and EURO haven't shown any trends aside from there being some type of low pressure system at 10 days out. The euro is also overblowing the setup intermittently, including developing that little system east of the lesser antilles.
Posted on 6/11/17 at 11:31 am to rds dc
Is it beenie weenie time already?
Posted on 6/11/17 at 2:31 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
That euro shot is deceiving. The pressure shown supports a TS/Cat 1, and is usually overblown by the EURO anyways. The large pressure field typical of this time of year also makes this potential storm look bigger than it actually would be. IMO it all depends, if this thing even forms, where it comes off the yucatan. East would be more favorable than west, and both the GFS and EURO seem to agree with this line of thinking.
In that image, there is a broad synoptic scale weakness across the Gulf. The system would probably be on the larger side, given the trough is basically lifting the entire CA gyre north into the Gulf. It would also probably be sheared and interacting with a surface boundary that is sagging across the SE US. Overall, probably not a very photogenic system but would have high end rainfall potential.
quote:
GFS and EURO haven't shown any trends aside from there being some type of low pressure system at 10 days out. The euro is also overblowing the setup intermittently, including developing that little system east of the lesser antilles.
The 12z runs don't really change things. There is pretty good agreement across the models that a large area of disorganized low pressure will form in 3 or 4 days across Central America. Beyond that, total guessing game. That is a very low predictability pathway to genesis and the models have been way to spin up happy with these setups the last couple of years. Also, the models have been horrible here lately beyond 5 days with the 500mb pattern across N. America. That trough in the longer range over the Great Lakes is going to play a huge role in determining if there is even an opening for a system to get into the Gulf. The MJO might favor something like the 00z Euro but even the MJO has been pretty worthless here lately with KWs racing across the tropics.
This post was edited on 6/11/17 at 3:08 pm
Posted on 6/11/17 at 2:43 pm to rds dc
quote:
would have high end rainfall potential.
That is some very deep tropical moisture (image via @RyanMaue)
Posted on 6/13/17 at 8:10 am to rds dc
NHC has issued a 5 Day 20%
Models are still struggling with this but have generally shifted SE keeping any potential system down in the BOC.
00z Euro
quote:
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea or Central America late this week or this weekend. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves slowly northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Models are still struggling with this but have generally shifted SE keeping any potential system down in the BOC.
00z Euro
Posted on 6/13/17 at 9:22 am to rds dc
Enjoy you posting this stuff... My work is affected by such things so its nice knowing what could be out there even though the uncertainty of outcome is very high.
Posted on 6/13/17 at 9:26 am to Zephyrius
On vacation next week in ft Morgan... Am I fricked or what?
Posted on 6/14/17 at 9:23 pm to rds dc
NHC is monitoring two areas and giving the one over the Yucatan 30%:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is
located well south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slight
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while the wave moves westward near 20 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
2. A complex area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Yucatan peninsula by the
weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable for some gradual
development of this system while it moves slowly northwestward
toward the southern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is
located well south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slight
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while the wave moves westward near 20 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
2. A complex area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Yucatan peninsula by the
weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable for some gradual
development of this system while it moves slowly northwestward
toward the southern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Posted on 6/14/17 at 9:26 pm to rds dc
In Page One:
The Weatherman assures us that someplace will get screwed this season.
The Weatherman assures us that someplace will get screwed this season.
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