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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine

Posted on 8/30/16 at 10:47 am to
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84900 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 10:47 am to
quote:

this is why I dont trust the weather man



Fair enough, but 36 hours later they nailed the landfall from 60 hours out and within 12 hours of the expected time.

Posted by longhorn22
Nicholls St. Fan
Member since Jan 2007
42300 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 10:49 am to
soooooooooo later tonight/early tomorrow morning we should get a diff cone possibly if it continues on its WNW flow? "possibly"....

I see this turning as well, just you never know if that Front doesn't get here in time to steer it.
Posted by Rakim
Member since Nov 2015
9954 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:00 am to
Sources continue to tell me they expect further west from model. Closer to Bama border.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
166318 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:01 am to
this thing just wants to wreck my camping trip.
Posted by Hulkklogan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2010
43299 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:01 am to
quote:

Sources

This post was edited on 8/30/16 at 11:02 am
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
36709 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:04 am to
this shows the front in texas

eta: why doesn't it leave "FRONTS" on the right side checked? Scroll down a little, click fronts and you can see the front in Texas. Doesn't look like it's moving much???
This post was edited on 8/30/16 at 11:06 am
Posted by Janky
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
35957 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:08 am to
So, the High cutting through TX is the one that is supposed to push this storm East?
Posted by medtiger
Member since Sep 2003
21664 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:09 am to
quote:

this shows the front in texas


That isn't the front. The front is the blue line traveling through Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, and Virginia. It's supposed to swing down and create a trough to allow TD 9 to travel northeast. At least that's the way I understand it.
Posted by burdman
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2007
20686 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:10 am to
If you're just looking at fronts, here's an easier map to read

Posted by bayoudude
Member since Dec 2007
24958 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:12 am to
Noaa has added "supposed" to their guidance on the trough picking up TD9. We will still have to wait and see i think there is still a fair amount of error in the forecast tracks. I won't write this one off till it makes the hook to FL.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
36709 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:16 am to
quote:

That isn't the front. The front is the blue line traveling through Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, and Virginia. It's supposed to swing down and create a trough to allow TD 9 to travel northeast. At least that's the way I understand it.



OOPS. Thanks.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
36709 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:17 am to
Then what's the black line if the blue is the front?
Posted by Flame Salamander
Texas Gulf - Clear Lake
Member since Jan 2012
3044 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:19 am to
quote:

Noaa has added "supposed" to their guidance on the trough picking up TD9. We will still have to wait and see i think there is still a fair amount of error in the forecast tracks. I won't write this one off till it makes the hook to FL.




According to the models, any second now #9 will take off to the North. Yet further west along the TX coast everything is still moving straight west.
Posted by LSU1NSEC
Member since Sep 2007
17243 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:21 am to
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84900 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:32 am to
quote:

Sources continue to tell me they expect further west from model. Closer to Bama border.


Ehh, 12z GFS is slightly west of the 6z run, but it is barely noticeable. Getting to the FL/AL border doesn't have much model support.

12z:



6z:



Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:40 am to
Is it me or does it look like that storm is starting to turn north now? Maybe I'm just seeing things.
Posted by Sid in Lakeshore
Member since Oct 2008
41956 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:41 am to
quote:

this is why I dont trust the weather man





That is pretty stupid. Once in the Gulf, they nailed the track forecast of Katrina, thankfully.
Posted by AlxTgr
Kyre Banorg
Member since Oct 2003
81645 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:45 am to
In case it hasn't been linked already,

Golden Triangle Weather page. Lots of stuff there. Probably not great on a phone.
Posted by LSU1NSEC
Member since Sep 2007
17243 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:48 am to
mid-level 500 mb vort is between cozumel and cuba

weird storm


LINK
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84900 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 11:50 am to
quote:

Is it me or does it look like that storm is starting to turn north now? Maybe I'm just seeing things.


It does, and we should get a better idea once the visible satellite loop has a full light loop (not starting in the early morning, low light hours).

ETA: Can't really tell what is going on from IR imagery on a storm this poorly organized.
This post was edited on 8/30/16 at 11:51 am
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