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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:56 pm to Riseupfromtherubble
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:56 pm to Riseupfromtherubble
quote:
Still not a time to panic, but I wouldn't get into "coast is clear" mode yet either. Katrina was a hurricane and they missed badly on it's track when it was a few days ahead of where invest is now
we fricked
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:58 pm to doubleb
I said early this morning that we will see models flip flopping back and forth until we are at or near 100 hours from landfall. Even then there is a lot of uncertainty. Everybody needs to relax and watch the trend not a single run of any model. Hell, when Katrina hit S. Fla nobody nor no model predicted her movement which ended up being south of due west. Watch, wait and with the possibility of a cane in the gulf start thinking about what preps you need if and when it's time
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:58 pm to TheFonz
quote:He's probably already practicing standing on a beach holding the microphone in one hand and holding down his baseball cap with the other hand while leaning into the wind.
especially Jim Cantore - are jizzing in their pants right now.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:59 pm to TheFonz
quote:
One thing is for certain - the Weather Channel people, especially Jim Cantore - are jizzing in their pants right now. They've been waiting all summer for this.
It's been relatively quiet for 9 years now. I'm sure Cantore is in a closet somewhere blasting Metallica as we speak getting ready to ruin someone's day when he rolls up in his van.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:59 pm to rds dc
When I get home I'll link them from my computer, but these were actual mets.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:00 pm to tke857
Next Euro run will slam this thing into Brownsville, TX at the rate is going.
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 2:01 pm
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:00 pm to TheFonz
quote:
One thing is for certain - the Weather Channel people, especially Jim Cantore - are jizzing in their pants right now.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:00 pm to LSURussian
quote:
He's probably already practicing standing on a beach holding the microphone in one hand and holding down his baseball cap with the other hand while leaning into the wind.
I bet they have a simulation for that at their HQ. Big 'ol fan and fake rain.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:01 pm to beebefootballfan
quote:
Euro run will slam this thing into Brownsville, TX at the rate is going.
And then it'll be declared king again!
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:01 pm to GEAUXmedic
I'm fairly certain every possible location on the gulf coast will be in the crosshairs by the time they know where it's going for sure...
Why's the models pulling it so close to Florida now? Did something develop in the models? I can't look at them on my phone right now due to shitty service.
Why's the models pulling it so close to Florida now? Did something develop in the models? I can't look at them on my phone right now due to shitty service.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:01 pm to Wimp Lo
quote:
When I get home I'll link them from my computer, but these were actual mets
I believe you. See it all the time with every possible wx setup, not just hurricanes.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:03 pm to Wimp Lo
quote:
It's precisely why I laugh at people that hold on so tight to a specific model. Yeah the GFS has been bad, but the euro now gets pretty close to what it's been doing for a few runs. Now the euro is garbage according to some.
To be fair, you've got people on the other end of the spectrum that continuously deride the accuracy of models this far out while they're focused on south Louisiana, yet as soon as a model has a change in either direction and/or suggests the storm will fizzle out, they champion the run as an "I told you so" moment.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:05 pm to deuce985
quote:
Why's the models pulling it so close to Florida now? Did something develop in the models? I can't look at them on my phone right now due to shitty service.
the latest Euro run has the ridge over the eastern US quickly breaking down after the system passes over Florida, steering it along the inside of the peninsula towards the big bend.
Some mets are discounting this run for two reasons...
-it's such a large shift from previous runs
-there's not much reason for the ridge to break down as quickly as it does
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:09 pm to baytiger
Thanks. I hope it stays consistent with that on the next few runs that would be really nice.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:14 pm to Tigerdew
quote:
It's been relatively quiet for 9 years now. I'm sure Cantore is in a closet somewhere blasting Metallica as we speak getting ready to ruin someone's day when he rolls up in his van
Funny you say that. I remember when Gustav came through, my old man was watching the Weather Channel and recognized the place Cantore was broadcasting from was about four blocks from where he lived. He told me he knew at that moment that they were well and truly fricked.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:22 pm to TheFonz
quote:
Funny you say that. I remember when Gustav came through, my old man was watching the Weather Channel and recognized the place Cantore was broadcasting from was about four blocks from where he lived. He told me he knew at that moment that they were well and truly fricked.
JBE needs to send him an email-he is not allowed in the state of Louisiana.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:23 pm to baytiger
quote:
t from previous runs -there's not much reason for the ridge to break down as quickly as it does
Wasn't it said from the beginning by a lot of people that these models tend to break down ridges too quick?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:27 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
I've been saying that since before this thread was created.
Doesn't mean that is the case here but I am not buying a ridge breaking down that fast until I see 3-4 runs in a row showing it and we are closer to landfall.
That ridge has been prominent all summer, it breaking down right as this storm approaches seems rather suspect, especially so when looking at past examples where they broke down the ridge too quickly.
Doesn't mean that is the case here but I am not buying a ridge breaking down that fast until I see 3-4 runs in a row showing it and we are closer to landfall.
That ridge has been prominent all summer, it breaking down right as this storm approaches seems rather suspect, especially so when looking at past examples where they broke down the ridge too quickly.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:50 pm to BigB0882
Well this shite died quick
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:50 pm to LSURussian
quote:
He's probably already practicing standing on a beach holding the microphone in one hand and holding down his baseball cap with the other hand while leaning into the wind.
Jim Cantore needs no practice. Dudes a vet. He can skip training camp.
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