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Started By
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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/24/16 at 3:22 pm to Keys Open Doors
Posted on 8/24/16 at 3:22 pm to Keys Open Doors
quote:unfortunately I cannot because I'm getting it from a proprietary site.. not sure where to get it for free.
Baytiger, can you post a link or picture of this? Thanks
@mjventrice will probably post something on twitter about it in the next couple hours though. He's been keeping a close watch on the euro ensembles.
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 3:24 pm
0
Posted on 8/24/16 at 3:23 pm to Keys Open Doors
I was much more concerned earlier than I am now for how this storm will affect Florida. It is not going to have much time between land interaction and the SE coast of FL to go from a cluster of rain storms to anything significant. Now if it gets into the Gulf what it does there is another story, unfortunately. This thing could just dissipate, who knows for sure?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 3:24 pm to LSUfanNkaty
quote:
This is the email I just got on the track...
Not to sound like a jerk, but you shouldn't trust any of these "forecasting services", unless they are trusted meteorologists or the National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center. This service appears to be one of those that issues their own advisories independent of the NHC. The only advisories that should be listened to are those from the NHC.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 3:24 pm to LSUfanNkaty
I admire then for trying to draw a cone of uncertainty on an invest, but I can't help but laugh a bit.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 3:26 pm to BigB0882
Model consensus doesn't mean much when it's not even a TS yet and no center has been determined. Models can be vastly inaccurate at this stage especially for extended timeline. Much more so than if this were a hurricane or even TS
Posted on 8/24/16 at 3:27 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Just relaying. This is the work email I get with updates. I work for an O&G company with interests in the GOM. Don't stone me to death 
Posted on 8/24/16 at 3:28 pm to baytiger
quote:
I admire then for trying to draw a cone of uncertainty on an invest, but I can't help but laugh a bit.
This is their explanation on the cone...
"The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone."
Posted on 8/24/16 at 3:28 pm to LSUfanNkaty
^ a lot of O&G companies use private meteorology companies.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 3:30 pm to LSUfanNkaty
I understand, man. I just want to make sure no one believes this is a true forecast track. Apparently this company does work with some of the companies that do offshore drilling, so I don't know a ton about them. Seeing anyone putting up a forecast track/intensity cone threw up red flags for me.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 3:31 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 8/24/16 at 3:32 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Roll Tide Ravens
It's all good
Posted on 8/24/16 at 3:33 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
a tornado in Indy
Yikes
Posted on 8/24/16 at 3:33 pm to LSUfanNkaty
75 percent of the time when it's a defined storm Im sure. So what is the percentage when it's trying to track a tropical wave?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 3:33 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
tornado in Indy
global warming
Posted on 8/24/16 at 3:34 pm to Catman88
quote:
75 percent of the time when it's a defined storm Im sure. So what is the percentage when it's trying to track a tropical wave?
Hell if I know, man! I just get the emails
Posted on 8/24/16 at 3:34 pm to LSUfanNkaty
My e-mail has that exact explanation on the cone. Same company or at least same paid weather service.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 4:02 pm to Icansee4miles
For those interested, these are the historical paths for storms passing 60 miles from the southern tip of Florida, coming from the Atlantic side.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 4:03 pm to supernovasky
(Did not mean for Katrina to be highlighted in that picture, nothing meant by that)
Posted on 8/24/16 at 4:04 pm to supernovasky
quote:
For those interested, these are the historical paths for storms passing 60 miles from the southern tip of Florida, coming from the Atlantic side.
Any way to narrow that down to August 21st-September 20th?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 4:06 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
tornado in Indy
Picture of a completely collapsed Starbucks on Twitter. It looks so odd because everything around it looks relatively unscathed.
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