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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:23 pm to Paul Allen
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:23 pm to Paul Allen
numerically or alphabetically?
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 12:24 pm
0
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:24 pm to Macintosh504
it's cyclical. there was a huge burst of nocturnal convection that pretty much evaporated this morning, and there's some signs of new stuff springing up but nothing on that level.
Once the circulation really gets going and stacked at all levels, it'll be able to sustain that convection to get a more classic look.
Once the circulation really gets going and stacked at all levels, it'll be able to sustain that convection to get a more classic look.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:26 pm to BigB0882
quote:I can't fault it. It's a hurricane model.. hurricane models forecast hurricanes
unless it was the always over intensifying HWRF).
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:27 pm to dukke v
Nice prediction! That means I'm safe!
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:30 pm to dukke v
quote:
We will see if I am right on this one. IF it makes the GOM, it hits the panhandle.
The Yucatan peninsula needs to start preparations now.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:31 pm to LSURussian
Right, the wave in question might not ever make it to TS and people are all excited.
These models are the same models that often tell us it isn't going to rain when we get 2 inches or tell us we are going to see bad weather and the sun shines all day.
After 3 days or so it's just a guess right now as to what may happen.
But it is the end of August and we all know what that means in La. The GOM has to be watched.
These models are the same models that often tell us it isn't going to rain when we get 2 inches or tell us we are going to see bad weather and the sun shines all day.
After 3 days or so it's just a guess right now as to what may happen.
But it is the end of August and we all know what that means in La. The GOM has to be watched.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:31 pm to NorthEndZone
that just looks like normal heat showers popping up
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:35 pm to doubleb
recon finding some legit 50kt winds on the east side. no clear center of circulation yet though
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:36 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
The Yucatan peninsula needs to start preparations now.
I took his prediction to mean that Brazil is in deep doo doo.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:36 pm to doubleb
quote:Of course.
But it is the end of August and we all know what that means in La. The GOM has to be watched.
If this system makes it into the Gulf with a closed circulation, there will plenty of time for anyone in S. Louisiana to make their preparations for a possible landfall. And that is at least 3-5 days away before that can occur.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:38 pm to LSURussian
quote:
there will plenty of time for anyone in S. Louisiana to make their preparations for a possible landfall. And that is at least 3-5 days away before that can occur
you'll also probably be fighting other people for limited supplies. nothing wrong with stacking up on water and gas. it's not like you wont use those items anyway. plywood is going a bit far right now but i haven't seen anyone suggest that.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:38 pm to LSURussian
quote:
there will plenty of time for anyone in S. Louisiana to make their preparations for a possible landfall. And that is at least 3-5 days away before that can occur.
Hope they kick the curb cleanup in overdrive then. If not, every road wont be driveable as it'll be covered in house debris
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:41 pm to baytiger
I am interested in the 2:00pm TWO to see what the hurricane center has to say about this.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:42 pm to bbap
quote:Read page 31.
plywood is going a bit far right now but i haven't seen anyone suggest that.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:43 pm to LSURussian
Certainly.
Any trained meteorologist knows the models are just tools to be used and not reliable enough to be relied upon upon for predicting storm strength and landfall this early.
This invest could explode in 2-3 days or be sheered apart or torn up by the rough terrain of Hispsnola and be a non event.
Any trained meteorologist knows the models are just tools to be used and not reliable enough to be relied upon upon for predicting storm strength and landfall this early.
This invest could explode in 2-3 days or be sheered apart or torn up by the rough terrain of Hispsnola and be a non event.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:44 pm to baytiger
I'm sure it's already been mentioned that the models without a real good center of circulation can't really be counted on to initialize appropriately.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:44 pm to lsuman25
hurricane tracker on FB has this heading to the gulf and heading either towards Nola, LA\TX border, Mexico\TX
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:45 pm to LSURussian
i see one guy saying he's going to buy plywood 3 days from now. Is that what you are talking about?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:45 pm to bbap
Anyone in an area that got flooded bad I'd recommend getting supplies now just to be safe. In my area it's hard to get supplies around me because most stores are closed. When this becomes official if it's a threat to SE Louisiana I'll never be able to get the supplies I need. Besides, worst case scenario you'll have stuff ready in case another one comes along this season.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:46 pm to doubleb
Yea, we are most likely still 2 to 3 days from knowing if it will make it in the Gulf or not so i am sure models will still flip-flop over the next 48 hours. Hopefully the Hurricane Hunters sample the upper level atmosphere to put the data into the models and hopefully get a better idea where this system will go.
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