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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/24/16 at 11:50 am to Chad504boy
Posted on 8/24/16 at 11:50 am to Chad504boy
quote:
what website ya'll using? that's from weatherunderground that i used to use a lot.
That map says it is from 8:00am this morning. Models that have been run after that will obviously not be on that map. The GFS just finished running so the newest version of it is not included on that map. I was referring to the latest run of the GFS when saying it goes out to sea while missing Florida.
1
Posted on 8/24/16 at 11:52 am to BigB0882
I don't know if they will find a closed low. It looks like the shear is not allowing this to stack. It will get into a lower shear environment by tomorrow.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 11:58 am to lsuman25
quote:
EURO will start running in about an hour from now
latest UKMET shifted east. Don't count the GFS out yet, it may end up being right.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:00 pm to LSU1NSEC
It would be pretty hilarious if GFS turned out to be the only one right.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:03 pm to LSU1NSEC
quote:
latest UKMET shifted east. Don't count the GFS out yet, it may end up being right.
UKMET has it hitting Apalachicola and the Canandian has it landing near Gulf Shores/Orange Beach.
These models can't make up their mind.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:03 pm to Chad504boy
which one is the Euro? didn't the euro change it's name?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:09 pm to JETigER
quote:
which one is the Euro? didn't the euro change it's name?
ECMWF
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:10 pm to LSU1NSEC
quote:
latest UKMET shifted east. Don't count the GFS out yet, it may end up being right
But doesn't the UKMET show it hitting the western FL Panhandle? It is an east shift but it is still a gulf hit. The GFS has this thing missing the US completely. Not saying it is wrong, who knows, but some models moving back to a FL panhandle hit is not a sign that the GFS has this right. The EURO was showing that just a day ago, before this morning the furthest west it had made it was to Gulf Shores.
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 12:13 pm
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:11 pm to NorthEndZone
I've been watching the san juan radar velocities and honestly there isn't much to see. Not very convincing of a circulation.
The most convincing thing is the recon wsw winds but even that is pretty broad.
The most convincing thing is the recon wsw winds but even that is pretty broad.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:12 pm to bbrownso
quote:
UKMET has it hitting Apalachicola and the Canandian has it landing near Gulf Shores/Orange Beach.
These models can't make up their mind.
For a system that doesn't have a definded center of circulation, I'd say two models predicting landfall within 200 miles of each other 7 days from now is fairly precise.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:13 pm to slackster
quote:I'm sure not one of those posters hysterically claiming it's time to stock up on supplies, water, tarps and plywood and book hotel reservations to get away from Louisiana just because a tropical wave is nearing Puerto Rico and often wrong forecast models show it developing into a hurricane and eventually, maybe, perhaps making landfall somewhere within 250 miles of Louisiana.
are you just taking pot shots at anyone who tries to ask a question? We get it. You're Mr. Cool and totally unfazed,
If that makes me "Mr. Cool" I'll take it as a compliment.....
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:14 pm to LSURussian
+1. People just want a storm because they want something to get excited about.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:15 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
Agreed. I don't need a hurricane to make my life interesting. 
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:19 pm to LSURussian
This thing looks like it's dying.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:19 pm to LSURussian
Basic essential preparation of a real chance at a Cat 3 hurricane making landfall in less than a week's time is not behaving hysterically
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:22 pm to Chad504boy
quote:I rest my case.....
Basic essential preparation of a real chance at a Cat 3 hurricane making landfall in less than a week's time is not behaving hysterically
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:22 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
real chance
Define real chance?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:22 pm to Macintosh504
The Euro did not show this getting its act together until Friday. It is supposed to be a mess, if it wasn't a mess then it would be a TS now. I don't think any models showed that (unless it was the always over intensifying HWRF).
Posted on 8/24/16 at 12:23 pm to Paul Allen
We will see if I am right on this one. IF it makes the GOM, it hits the panhandle.
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