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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:42 am to geauxtigersgirl
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:42 am to geauxtigersgirl
At 954 millibars at landfall you would have probably a strong Cat 2 or maybe a Cat 3. Hurricane Katrina was a Cat 3 with a pressure of 920 millibars at landfall. Hurricane Rita was a Cat 3 with a pressure of 937 millibars at landfall.
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 7:44 am
1
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:43 am to Wimp Lo
I would've been very sad if the very GIF this site worships would bite us in the arse in the form of a storm 
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:43 am to the LSUSaint
This is freaking me out. 30 Pages and the storm hasn't even formed yet. I am flying out of NOLA the morning of 9/1.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:44 am to rds dc
CMCI 
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 7:45 am
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:47 am to Wimp Lo
quote:
So not Her-miney
I wish.. Would be like real live GTA vice city.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:47 am to Roll Tide Ravens
I think it is important to say that we may not be done shifting west, this thing could ultimately end up in Texas. The ridge that will ultimately determine where this thing will go is for real.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:47 am to tke857
quote:
CMCI
Crazy uncle.. I don't like how the tvcn is still in the same spot
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:48 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
I think it is important to say that we may not be done shifting west, this thing could ultimately end up in Texas. The ridge that will ultimately determine where this thing will go is for real.
And the ridge could totally break down and the gfs be right.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:48 am to GEAUXmedic
can someone explain to me this graph? this seems like a lot better for us
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:49 am to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:50 am to jlu03
oh and I assume this is the "we're fricked" model
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:52 am to tke857
quote:
oh and I assume this is the "we're fricked" model
That's the CMC ensemble.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:53 am to tke857
quote:
can someone explain to me this graph? this seems like a lot better for us
Those are the GFS Ensembles.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:54 am to GEAUXmedic
GTA: Gulf Coast
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:54 am to tke857
quote:
I assume this is the "we're fricked" model
So much can happen. Just watch with a cautious eye and be prepared to make preparations if needed. Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:56 am to GEAUXmedic
Is there a chart for what models to watch and what to ignore. I just see a bunch of random letters.
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:56 am to glassman
is this a slow moving storm? or will we know by the weekend if we need to start making preparations?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:59 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
I think it is important to say that we may not be done shifting west, this thing could ultimately end up in Texas. The ridge that will ultimately determine where this thing will go is for real.
The models tend to do well with features like ridges at this time frame, so the ridge is probably locked in. As the system moves west a trough digs into the West and that erodes the edge of the ridge allowing the system to turn north.
The system is under a good bit of shear this morning and still slanted to the SE with the low level vort out ahead of the mid level vort.
This was all pretty well handled by the 00z Euro. The Euro has the shear continuing to be an issue for the next couple of days keeping the system in check. One thing that could happen, a sheared disorganized system might continue more westward and into the islands.
One thing to note, if it makes it to the Gulf, the forecast is for it to find improving conditions across the board. The MJO/KW signal hasn't been favorable over the past couple of weeks but looks to change as we head into next week. Blue shaded areas are more favorable for rising air:
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:59 am to tke857
quote:It's not a 'storm.' Hell, it's not even a tropical depression. It's just a tropical wave.
is this a slow moving storm?
Posted on 8/24/16 at 7:59 am to tke857
Too many factors in play. Just keep one eye on the progression.
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