re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine

When I was fishing down at Hackberry last month, it occurred to me what a nightmare it would be evacuating up that highway in normal times, much less with thousands of contractors. The growth is explosive in that area, with construction trailer camps everywhere, and "luxury apartments" sprouting up overnight in former cow pastures.

All those people have one route to evacuate, up a two lane highway.

God idea. Jesus Loves You.

Notice how it very quickly dissapates just as it moves on shore. Very much like hurricane Carmen in 1974 and hurricane lily in 2002. Both of those hit almost the same exact location. Both of those hurricanes whipped up to very intense hurricanes but began rapidly weakening just before landfall and did relatively little damage. They have done studies to try to figure out why certain storms do that as they move onto the north gulf coast. Even Katrina did this. It just happened to be so strong to begin with that even with the rapid de-intensification prior to landfall it didn't give itself enough time to weaken before it obviously did lots of damage. But believe it or not Katrina could have been much much worse. There is a huge difference between cat 5 and cat 3.

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Notice how it very quickly dissapates just as it moves on shore. Very much like hurricane Carmen in 1974 and hurricane lily in 2002. Both of those hit almost the same exact location. Both of those hurricanes whipped up to very intense hurricanes but began rapidly weakening just before landfall and did relatively little damage. They have done studies to try to figure out why certain storms do that as they move onto the north gulf coast. Even Katrina did this. It just happened to be soon strong to begin with that even with the rapid de-intensification prior to landfall it didn't give itself enough time to weaken before it obviously did lots of damage. But believe it or not Katrina could have been much much worse. There is a huge difference between cat 5 and cat 3.

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Katrina had cat 5 storm surge. That's what did in Nola. Of course it could have been worse, but that was a once in a lifetime type storm.

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Well that would pretty much destroy my entire region. That's a storm that you leave for and come home to a slab.

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. Not necessarily. See my post above. Notice how in that scenario it very rapidly dissapates just before/as its coming onshore. . Not saying that will happen of course just commenting on what is depicted in this way too far in advance projection.

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If you move Katrina 50 miles west of where it made landfall, damage goes up exponentially in NOLA. Make it an actual cat 5 at landfall and buildings start failing.

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yep very true.

934 Mb and looks to be about 65 miles wide on this animation at landfall. Galveston would be wiped from the face of the earth.

Damn, they're building "luxury apartments" in Hackberry? These are truly end times.