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Started By
Message
re: Southern Severe Weather Threat (Thursday/Friday)
Posted on 2/28/23 at 12:48 am to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 2/28/23 at 12:48 am to LegendInMyMind
Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
quote:
Another run of the models, and more of the same in the forecast. First off, SPC has continued with the 30% risk for severe weather over our area on Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This isn’t surprising at all. I should note that 30% is as high as they will go in the 4-8 day range. That is a level 3 of 5 risk when using the scale we use for day 1 or 2, but I think this system has the potential to bring widespread severe weather, and the risk areas will increase accordingly in the next few days barring a major change in model data. Here is the current wording from The Storm Prediction Center for the areas they are highlighting on Thursday…
“ A regional outbreak of severe weather appears increasingly likely
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night including the potential for
large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which may be
strong.”
As usual, I want to keep things honest and responsible here. There is always the potential for failure in a severe weather event. I’m trying to find some potential for this one to fade away, but so many factors are arguing for a high threat of severe weather. The upper level feature is incredibly strong, the surface low pressure is incredibly strong, wind shear is… you guessed it, incredibly strong, and there is plenty of instability in place for severe weather. These are all fairly basic ingredients, and I don’t want to get too far into the weeds since we are still 3 1/2 days out, but I want you to have the 7:00 PM Thursday until 2:00 AM Friday timeframe blocked off for weather watching. Since this is looking more and more like an after dark event, I’ll probably be streaming as opposed to chasing. Now is the time to consider your plan for going to stay with someone if you’re in a mobile home or camper. Chances are, you’ll be fine, but I get asked this often. An EF1 tornado hitting a house is a much different story than hitting a mobile home or camper. I’m not one to say you need to evacuate for every storm event, but with the high end potential on this one, if that is something you ever consider, you may want to start planning your Thursday evening destination. I probably won’t have a ton to add to this today, but will update if I see anything worth mentioning. I’m at the stage where I’m monitoring for model consistency, and waiting on the higher resolution models that will start coming in later today. I usually wait until I get a few runs of those as they can be a bit wonky on the first run that actually captures the event. Just know that I’m consuming every bit of data regarding this system, and will be as honest and forthright as I can.
0
Posted on 2/28/23 at 1:05 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
I’ve seen too many people killed and too much damage to not take severe thunderstorms seriously. My cousin’s home was destroyed in an EF-3 tornado in 2021 on a day that started out with only a level 1/5 marginal risk.
But this is why you don't start predicting really bad tornadic weather too far ahead of time, things come together hour by hour and can be very localized.
When weather people start predicting severe weather too early and then nothing happens, people start ignoring warnings.
I'm not a weatherman, but I have been through several tornadoes and very close to some really bad ones.
I don't think this cold front is strong enough to expect really bad tornadic activity in La. Ms. or Al., maybe further north.
This post was edited on 2/28/23 at 1:22 am
Posted on 2/28/23 at 2:27 am to auggie
quote:
don't think this cold front is strong enough to expect really bad tornadic activity in La. Ms. or Al., maybe further north.
I mean I guess it depends on how you define "really bad" but does this mean you deem yourself smarter than the SPC?
Posted on 2/28/23 at 2:50 am to Wishnitwas1998
quote:
I mean I guess it depends on how you define "really bad"
Correct.
quote:
but does this mean you deem yourself smarter than the SPC?
I just get tired of them scaring my family, who are very afraid of bad weather, days in advance, for no good reason.
Posted on 2/28/23 at 4:12 am to auggie
This has escalated quickly, large enhanced area
Posted on 2/28/23 at 4:17 am to Strannix
We'll see.
Posted on 2/28/23 at 5:07 am to auggie
I get what youre saying BTW, when I was a kid and Ed Duranczyk said there was gonna be bad weather you could bet your arse there was. We havenr had much bad weather in the Arklatex comparatively in years.
Posted on 2/28/23 at 5:21 am to Strannix
quote:
I get what youre saying BTW, when I was a kid and Ed Duranczyk said there was gonna be bad weather you could bet your arse there was. We havenr had much bad weather in the Arklatex comparatively in years.
It's like this: about a month ago, they were predicting bad stuff for my neighborhood. It started raining early in the morning, so the temp stayed down about 65 degrees all day and the temps were only going to drop into the low 40s overnight.
I said, "there's nothing to worry about here, but they kept on putting out watches and warnings.
Now at my friend's house about 25 miles south, it didn't rain much, and their temps got up in the 70s.
Juust over the hill from his house a small tornado came through, it followed the creek bottom and knocked down a lot of trees and he was without power for about 4 days.
We didn't even have lightning or wind gusts at our place.
All my family was in a panic though and glued to the TV set.
Now, if I ever start feeling those warm and cold pockets in the air, I will get worried. That's when I know there may be problems.
This post was edited on 2/28/23 at 5:38 am
Posted on 2/28/23 at 5:42 am to auggie
Meteorology is not an exact science. It takes a lot of ingredients coming together in the right way for severe weather to happen (particularly in order to have a big severe weather day). The event you’re talking about from a few weeks ago is an example of a couple of ingredients not reaching the level necessary to support widespread severe weather. Sometimes we don’t know until the day of whether the right ingredients exist, which is why there are times in which the forecast busts (like a few weeks ago). However, that doesn’t mean the National Weather Service and the broadcast meteorologists can wait until just a few hours in advance to start telling people that there is a threat. If they did, people would get just as mad as they do when a forecast busts.
This post was edited on 2/28/23 at 5:44 am
Posted on 2/28/23 at 6:25 am to auggie
So they predicted severe weather, you had a tornado 25 miles from your house and you’re upset they had watches at your location?
Posted on 2/28/23 at 6:34 am to tide06
They shut down schools, sent people home from work, killed all kinds of productivity, for a tiny tornado that knocked down a few trees, and left a handful of people without electricity.
I guess TV ratings were great though.
I guess TV ratings were great though.
Posted on 2/28/23 at 6:41 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTH/EAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
A regional severe-thunderstorm outbreak appears possible across
parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss
regions, with tornadoes, damaging wind, and hail all possible.
...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to become negatively
tilted as it traverses the southern Plains on Thursday. A surface
low is expected to steadily deepen somewhere near the Red River
during the day, with more rapid deepening expected Thursday night as
the cyclone moves northeastward toward the Ozarks. Seasonably rich
low-level moisture will be in place across the warm sector of the
developing cyclone through the period.
...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss region and parts of
the Southeast...
A regional severe thunderstorm outbreak still appears possible from
the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions Thursday
into Thursday night. All severe hazards will be possible, including
the potential for widespread damaging winds and strong tornadoes,
though uncertainty remains regarding the timing and evolution of
severe thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon/evening.
Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate buoyancy
across the moist warm sector, while deep-layer shear will steadily
increase through the day as a 80-100 kt midlevel jet approaches from
the west. The coverage and timing of convection remains somewhat
uncertain, with stronger large-scale ascent expected to remain west
of the warm sector for much of the day. Discrete supercell
development will be possible near the ArkLaTex vicinity by late
afternoon into the evening, as a low-level jet becomes increasingly
intense near/after 00Z. Any sustained supercells would pose a strong
tornado risk as low-level shear increases with time, along with the
potential for hail. More widespread development is expected along
the surging cold front across parts of north/central TX by evening.
The frontal convection will spread quickly eastward, posing a threat
of potentially widespread damaging wind and a continued tornado
threat.
Some portion of this area may eventually require a categorical
upgrade, if confidence increases regarding a corridor of
strong-tornado and/or significant-wind potential.
The eastward-surging frontal convection may tend to weaken with time
by early Friday morning across eastern MS/western AL, as the primary
mid/upper-level system begins to move northeastward away from the
region, though very strong deep-layer flow/shear will continue to
support a threat of damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes
through the end of the period.
Posted on 2/28/23 at 6:56 am to auggie
quote:
They shut down schools, sent people home from work, killed all kinds of productivity, for a tiny tornado that knocked down a few trees, and left a handful of people without electricity. I guess TV ratings were great though.
So what’s your request?
That they not warn civil authorities that there’s an ____% chance of severe tornadoes during the school/business day?
Sounds like the meteorologists knew the ingredients were all there for major storms and the civil authorities and media decided how they wanted to play it to me.
This time of year is pretty serious in many parts of the south. After 2011 most people know or were personally involved with a tornado especially in AL.
With lawsuits, lazy people who expect the government to hold their hand all the time and parents who are forced to send their kids to school during these events it’s never going to be perfect, but the weather prediction people have never been more accurate than they are now and I for one am thankful for the info regardless of how I decide to use it.
Posted on 2/28/23 at 6:58 am to auggie
quote:frick dem kids
They shut down schools, sent people home from work, killed all kinds of productivity, for a tiny tornado that knocked down a few trees, and left a handful of people without electricity. I guess TV ratings were great though.
Posted on 2/28/23 at 9:51 am to Pedro
quote:
A significant threat for severe weather remains, so I’ll get right to it. There have been some subtle changes in model guidance over the last day, but nothing to really change the overall picture. The first runs of some of the higher resolution models seemed to be a bit slower and further north with the track of the main upper feature, but those appear to be joining the rest of the guidance on a slightly faster, and further south track. This all adds up to the potential for scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. I think the main event will be from 8:00 PM Thursday until 2:00 AM Friday, and will fine tune timing as the event approaches.
SPC kept most of the area in a level 3/5 enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms, with the northern half of the area in the “hatched area” that indicates a 10% chance for significant severe weather. In this case, that would be damaging wind in excess of 75 mph, and the potential for tornadoes of EF2 strength or stronger. Any storms that are able to break the cap, and form out ahead of the main line of storms will have the potential to rapidly become supercells, and contain a tornado threat. The coverage on supercells is still in question, but by tomorrow morning, I should have a much better idea on that. For now, I think there is a good potential for a few of these supercells ahead of the main line. If those storms don’t materialize, the squall line will pack quite a punch with widespread wind gusts of 45-55 mph, and scattered areas of damaging wind in excess of 60 mph. There could also be tornadoes embedded in the squall line that, at least in some instances could be tough to warn. The line will be moving quickly, and in cases like this, with very strong wind shear, there are times where we see tornadoes spin up quite quickly. Hail is also a threat, but at this point is the lowest concern I have. I’m going to be setting up the stream today to make sure everything is working smoothly as I plan to be on the air plenty Thursday evening into Thursday night. As I said yesterday, now is the time to plan. If you live in a mobile home or camper, and have the ability to get to a more substantial structure, you want to do that before this event gets underway. These storms will be moving quite fast. Know where your place of shelter is in your home. Have the interior room on the lowest floor ready for the family to make a brief visit.
I know this one may sound a bit silly and extreme, but a batting helmet or bike helmet in the shelter is also a good precaution. I was watching a lecture on severe weather coverage by the great James Spann yesterday, and he mentioned that being the tool that could’ve saved the most lives in tornadoes. I’m not saying you have to walk around wearing one all day, but having one ready if you hear things changing rapidly could be a life saver. And yes, I’ve been doing this over 20 years, and I watch lectures and actual coverage of meteorologists I respect before an event approaches. OK, I watch that stuff all the time, but especially before an event. You have to stay sharp and keep learning in this field. I’ll put out a quick update this evening, but don’t expect to have a ton of new information until tomorrow morning when the real high resolution stuff starts coming in. I’ll be watching everything.
Remember, even in the worst outbreaks, a huge portion of the population will remain unaffected. I know that doesn’t help the storm anxiety for most, but it’s true. Your best weapon against that storm anxiety is to be as prepared as possible. Here’s hoping this event turns out to be a dud.
Tigerdroppings meteorologist Nick Mikulakikas aka tBoat
Posted on 2/28/23 at 9:59 am to S
Little Rock forecasters: death is imminent.
Posted on 2/28/23 at 10:03 am to auggie
quote:
But this is why you don't start predicting really bad tornadic weather too far ahead of time
The 2011 Super Outbreak was forecasted over a week in advance of the event. If the evidence is there you put it out to the public for consumption.
Posted on 2/28/23 at 11:41 am to auggie
You don't just ignore loaded gun soundings across a large warm sector with temps in the upper 70s and dews in the upper 60s. With a strong LLJ starting to crank at just the right time and a negatively tilted trough to fuel it all, turning a blind eye to the threat until the day of would be doing a disservice to the general public. Given this would be a largely nocturnal threat in the early season, you can't just ignore it and hope for the best.
That said, the open warm sector has pretty consistently remained strongly capped, model soundings are still comparable to the one posted in the OP. The main forcing remains with the front. It will likely take some mesoscale features, not yet known, to force pre-frontal storms. That could be remnant outflow from early morning storms, a kink in the mid-level flow, or just a few persistent cells that go up. Something will have to break that cap out ahead of the main front to reach the ceiling for this one.
To this point, CAMs haven't had much in the way of pre-frontal storms. The area with the greatest likelihood of those developing is in extreme eastern TX and the Arklatex region. Even if we start to see CAMs fire those storms, it still isn't a guarantee that a high end event is inevitable. The most likely failure mode then will be the cap. We could see those storms go up, struggle to organize, and then fizzle out. Lapse rates should be decent, moisture will be decent, and shear will pick up as the night goes on. So, the potential is there, with the main limiting factors being CIN and possibly timing.
That said, the open warm sector has pretty consistently remained strongly capped, model soundings are still comparable to the one posted in the OP. The main forcing remains with the front. It will likely take some mesoscale features, not yet known, to force pre-frontal storms. That could be remnant outflow from early morning storms, a kink in the mid-level flow, or just a few persistent cells that go up. Something will have to break that cap out ahead of the main front to reach the ceiling for this one.
To this point, CAMs haven't had much in the way of pre-frontal storms. The area with the greatest likelihood of those developing is in extreme eastern TX and the Arklatex region. Even if we start to see CAMs fire those storms, it still isn't a guarantee that a high end event is inevitable. The most likely failure mode then will be the cap. We could see those storms go up, struggle to organize, and then fizzle out. Lapse rates should be decent, moisture will be decent, and shear will pick up as the night goes on. So, the potential is there, with the main limiting factors being CIN and possibly timing.
Posted on 2/28/23 at 12:17 pm to auggie
quote:
They shut down schools, sent people home from work, killed all kinds of productivity, for a tiny tornado that knocked down a few trees, and left a handful of people without electricity.
I guess TV ratings were great though.
sigh - always 1 in every weather thread
Posted on 2/28/23 at 12:43 pm to auggie
quote:
just get tired of them scaring my family, who are very afraid of bad weather, days in advance, for no good reason.
When the threat reaches this level is just one of those things where the odds of your house getting hit, even on an all time bad day, are incredibly small but there are multiple households out there who WILL get hit and for those people it won't feel like fear for nothing. God forbid one day it is your house that gets hit, which it could.
Tornado outbreaks are sort of like slot machines. You pull the lever and hope like hell your number doesn't come up and it's basically impossible to forecast on the micro scale where a tornado will be more than a few minutes in advance and even then it's difficult. It's just the nature of it
I'll tell you this, the last thread we had for "southern severe weather" I had 2 tornadoes come very close to my house. Were they strong tornadoes? They were not but given it involves my family including two children I was very thankful that this thread was here and that the NWS/SPC had warned me well in advance so I was in a position to keep my family safe
You can go ask some people around Norman, OK today if they thing all the rabble was unnecessary ahead of what happened there Sunday night. I'm thinking they will say it was very necessary
Of course you are free to ignore these threads and any talk about severe weather as much as you'd like but I promise you many people find them to be valuable
This post was edited on 2/28/23 at 12:45 pm
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