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Smoke 'em if you got 'em: Only blind luck keeping asteroids from hitting cities
Posted on 4/18/14 at 10:39 pm
Posted on 4/18/14 at 10:39 pm
quote:
Well, here’s something happy to think about as you head into the weekend. Phys.org brings us word that three former NASA astronauts are going to present new research next week showing that there have been 26 asteroid crashes since 2001 that have caused “atomic-bomb-scale explosions” that have fortunately been far away from major population centers. The research, which was conducted by the B612 Foundation, used data from a nuclear weapons warning network to measure the impact of major asteroid strikes on the Earth’s surface.
“This network has detected 26 multi-kiloton explosions since 2001, all of which are due to asteroid impacts,” explained B612 Foundation CEO Ed Lu, a physicist who worked at NASA from 1994 until 2007. “It shows that asteroid impacts are not rare but actually 3-10 times more common than we previously thought. The fact that none of these asteroid impacts shown in the video was detected in advance is proof that the only thing preventing a catastrophe from a ‘city-killer’ sized asteroid is blind luck.”
LINK
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Posted on 4/18/14 at 10:41 pm to weagle99
Posted on 4/18/14 at 10:41 pm to weagle99
Posted on 4/18/14 at 10:42 pm to weagle99
I find this hard to believe. Chances are these would be landing in the oceans somewhere. Wouldn't an impact of that magnitude cause tsunamis?
Posted on 4/18/14 at 10:45 pm to weagle99
I don't understand how it's "blind luck" considering the huge surface area of the earth and that only 23 have hit since 2001. Seems like the odds that it would hit a densely populated area are very high.
Posted on 4/18/14 at 10:47 pm to stout
Good point.
Fact remains: A space rock hitting a major US city would be a game changer for awhile in this country.
Fact remains: A space rock hitting a major US city would be a game changer for awhile in this country.
Posted on 4/18/14 at 10:47 pm to belowmebama
Posted on 4/18/14 at 10:48 pm to UpToPar
quote:
I find this hard to believe. Chances are these would be landing in the oceans somewhere. Wouldn't an impact of that magnitude cause tsunamis?
A tsunami can't really be generated at the surface unless it was really, really, big.
We've detonated nuclear weapons underwater that haven't caused it.
To make a tsunami, the origin would have to be close to the bottom as possible.
Remember they are generated by displacement of a large column of water. That is different from a wave that a surface impact would make.
Posted on 4/18/14 at 10:48 pm to weagle99
if it has to hit anywhere, maybe california would be the best place
Posted on 4/18/14 at 10:49 pm to stout
The earth doesn't have a huge surface area.
Sincerely,
Space
Sincerely,
Space
Posted on 4/18/14 at 10:51 pm to weagle99
quote:
multi-kiloton
Meh.
1 kiloton explosion has severe ground radius damage of 0.136 miles.
Posted on 4/18/14 at 10:51 pm to weagle99
Any chance these are secret atomic testing explosions?
Posted on 4/18/14 at 10:51 pm to stout
quote:
I don't understand how it's "blind luck" considering the huge surface area of the earth and that only 23 have hit since 2001. Seems like the odds that it would hit a densely populated area are very high.
It's blind luck because chance is the only reason why it didn't happen.
We didn't even know it happened in advance, much less than the ability to do anything but evacuate.
The fact that the vast majority of the surface is relatively unpopulated is the reason why the odds were in our favor.
Doesn't stop it from being blind luck.
Posted on 4/18/14 at 10:52 pm to JG77056
None.
Posted on 4/18/14 at 10:53 pm to Coon
quote:
The earth doesn't have a huge surface area.
Space isn't hitting the surface of earth. The Asteroids are and they are small in comparison to earth's surface area is my point. That and the fact that our most densely populated areas only cover like 2% of the earth's available land area (not the whole surface) make the odds very high that a direct impact on a city would happen.
Posted on 4/18/14 at 11:03 pm to weagle99
If a city blew up unexpctedly. 'Murica would be looking around for some brown people to bomb.
Posted on 4/18/14 at 11:08 pm to Jim Rockford
To be honest, that is the surprising thing I get from this.
Yeah, it's a long shot that it would happen in New York, DFW, or LA.
But SOMEWHERE in a somewhat populated first world country would get at least one close call enough to pop up on radar.
US, Western Europe, etc.
Yeah, it's a long shot that it would happen in New York, DFW, or LA.
But SOMEWHERE in a somewhat populated first world country would get at least one close call enough to pop up on radar.
US, Western Europe, etc.
Posted on 4/18/14 at 11:10 pm to stout
So, if the radius of a blast is .136mi, the percent of earth affected by asteroid impacts since 2001 is 7.6728254989371e-12 or 0.0000000000077%.
Note: % chance of willing powerball 5.7142857142857e-9 or 0.0000000057%.
Note: % chance of willing powerball 5.7142857142857e-9 or 0.0000000057%.
This post was edited on 4/18/14 at 11:11 pm
Posted on 4/18/14 at 11:18 pm to Coon
quote:
So, if the radius of a blast is .136mi, the percent of earth affected by asteroid impacts since 2001 is 7.6728254989371e-12 or 0.0000000000077%. Note: % chance of willing powerball 5.7142857142857e-9 or 0.0000000057%.
Damn, I was wrong by a couple digits and stuff
Posted on 4/18/14 at 11:19 pm to windshieldman
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