re: Severe Weather 4.13 - 4.14 TX, OK, AR, LA, MS, AL

Rain across DFW has eroded the cap that was in place but that rain might linger long enough to keep things from destabilizing later on this afternoon. It will be interesting to see how fast things clear out over the next couple of hours.





MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...INTO PARTS
OF NW TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131726Z - 131900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE BY 19-20Z ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE
HEATING AND DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...INTO NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. AND AN INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF OKLAHOMA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS IT DOES...COINCIDING WITH STRONGER
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...IT
APPEARS PROBABLE THAT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL WEAKEN
INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE INITIATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
STORMS BY AROUND 19-20Z...IF NOT BEFORE. ONCE THIS OCCURS...IN THE
PRESENCE OF AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE CAPE...AND MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR /500 MB WIND ON THE ORDER OF 40-50
KT/...DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY...AT LEAST
INITIALLY.

LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT INITIALLY...BUT ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING OFF...AND OUT AHEAD OF...THE DRYLINE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY INCREASING TORNADIC POTENTIAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF LARGER
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AS THE SOUTHWARD
SURGING COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE...AN UPSCALE GROWING SQUALL
LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE...ACCOMPANIED MAINLY BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL.

Where's GEAUX?


NVM...right above me

OK-la-ho-ma

Cherokee word for "gtfo-weather".

I just want to know when it's getting to Baton rouge.

Rapid clearing just west of DFW on the back edge of the precipitation. Those storms out west coming off the dry line could find a very favorable environment as they move into DFW.

Medic, am I cool with this one?

quote:

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Medic, am I cool with this one?

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youre gonna start getting storms later tonight

Dry line just coming into NWA now, could conditions feel right for it to get hairy in about a hour or two.

I was thinking this was going to come a bit sooner but SPC was probably waiting to see what kind of surface heating was going to occur across N. Texas behind the morning storms.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0341
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/N/E TX...FAR SERN OK...SWRN
AR...NWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 132154Z - 132300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON FOR PARTS OF CNTRL/N TX
INTO THE ARKLATEX. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND
GUSTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MOVED E OF
A DRYLINE ACROSS N/CNTRL TX. THE DOWNSHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES /FROM
CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER PRECIPITATION/...BUT RICHER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ADDITIONAL TSTMS EXHIBITING PERIODIC
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION HAVE DEVELOPED W OF TEXARKANA. THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE SOON.

..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 04/13/2014