Severe Weather 4.13 - 4.14 TX, OK, AR, LA, MS, AL

..SRN OK/NORTH TX/ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL BE IN
PLACE FROM NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY EXTENDING SWD INTO THE TX HILL
COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY ALONG THE DRYLINE BY
MIDDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST TO INITIATE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERAL WIDELY SPACED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INITIATE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN OK AND NORTH TX FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO
SMALL CLUSTERS...MOVING EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT ARDMORE OK AND DALLAS TX AT 00Z/MON SHOW
MLCAPE OF 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH
850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER MAY OCCUR WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN BECOME DOMINANT. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONGLY
VEERING WINDS WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB. THIS
WILL RESULT IN 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES NEAR 400 M2/S2. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR.