tomorrow might be early to call it Debbie.. but it has looked pretty impressive on satellite imagery this evening
Yeah, it looks pretty good but according to CIMSS it isn't really stacked. The best 500 vort is under the convection and has some really nice venting above it. However, the best low level vort is set off to the NW and is under some shear. These types of systems tend to be slow to form and often give the appearance of getting going only to later be flagged for a false start.
But the trend this season has been over performance and why start betting against the trend now
It looks like the EURO might have the best handle on things as of right now. I would like to see it hold at 00Z but we will probably see plenty of model flopping.
One final caveat, the GFS just had a DA upgrade and the experimental GFS running with this DA performed pretty well last season. So I don't think we can just dismiss the GFS as easily as seasons past.