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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL: No winners in the powerball tonight...Wed drawing at 1.3 Billion
Posted on 1/10/16 at 10:21 am to shel311
Posted on 1/10/16 at 10:21 am to shel311
quote:
Yea...but...umm...it's really only $450 million after taxes, so it's not that much!!!
Obviously the jackpot would be incredible, but can you imagine filing that form 1040 next year?
Line 44 on your Form 1040 would show your tax as $319,176,000+. That would be a pretty sickening day, offset only by the $400+ million you have in the bank.
2
Posted on 1/10/16 at 10:42 am to slackster
So technically speaking some one could spend just under $600 million and buy every combination and win $1.3 billion...correct. Would that person come out ahead or behind after taxes?
Posted on 1/10/16 at 10:51 am to High C
quote:
Do you win anything for having two white numbers match?
Powerball Prizes & Odds
Total Winners by State
Posted on 1/10/16 at 10:59 am to lsuesac
quote:
So technically speaking some one could spend just under $600 million and buy every combination ?
Yes...
quote:
and win $1.3 billion...correct.
That is the annuity value. The lump sum projects to be $806M which is ~$438M after federal and state taxes in LA. That alone makes it a bad idea since you're still in the hole. You tack on the fact that there could be multiple winners and the numbers just get worse and worse from there.
ETA: Assuming you can deduct the losses, the $595M outlay for tickets, you have against the winnings, a single winner would actually be profitable. I worked out the math in a post a few replies below this one.
This post was edited on 1/10/16 at 11:56 am
Posted on 1/10/16 at 11:09 am to slackster
quote:
but can you imagine filing that form 1040 next year?
No, cause I won't be doing anything except working at living life to the max.
My people will handle that petty shite.
Posted on 1/10/16 at 11:11 am to lsuesac
quote:
So technically speaking some one could spend just under $600 million and buy every combination and win $1.3 billion...correct. Would that person come out ahead or behind after taxes?
I started a thread about this. Basically only a rich fool would do this
Posted on 1/10/16 at 11:13 am to LSUintheNW
quote:
My people will handle that petty shite.
That is when all your money will go "poof" because you signed POA's with some greedy CPA and sleezy lawyer.
Posted on 1/10/16 at 11:15 am to LSUintheNW
Gotcha...thought about multiple winners after I posted. Also why did I not know the you don't have to have the numbers in order...
Posted on 1/10/16 at 11:28 am to lsuesac
quote:
Gotcha...thought about multiple winners after I posted. Also why did I not know the you don't have to have the numbers in order...
You can only pick numbers in sequence.....
Posted on 1/10/16 at 11:28 am to 13SaintTiger
Whoever downvotes me, kys
Posted on 1/10/16 at 11:28 am to lsuesac
On somewhat of a tangent, the drawing Wednesday may be the first time the expected value of the Powerball is in your favor. For those of you who don't know, a positive expected value indicates a situation where you would expect a profit over the course of many samples. You basically take the cash value (less the purchase price of a ticket) of each Powerball prize and multiply it by the odds to win said prize. You do this for every prize, and then you do this for the odds you will NOT win a prize (-$2 X ~280,450,100 losers our of 292,201,338 possible combinations). You add up all of the products and you arrive at the expected value.
Assuming a single winner (no split jackpot) and only federal taxes (39.6%), the expected value of the Powerball will be a positive number if the cash payout is higher than $832M.
For a single winner, federal taxes, and LA state income taxes, the jackpot will have to reach nearly $924M for the expected value to be higher than $0.
Obviously a split jackpot throws a wrench in to all of this, but this may be the first time in history that the math says you SHOULD purchase a ticket.
Assuming a single winner (no split jackpot) and only federal taxes (39.6%), the expected value of the Powerball will be a positive number if the cash payout is higher than $832M.
For a single winner, federal taxes, and LA state income taxes, the jackpot will have to reach nearly $924M for the expected value to be higher than $0.
Obviously a split jackpot throws a wrench in to all of this, but this may be the first time in history that the math says you SHOULD purchase a ticket.
Posted on 1/10/16 at 11:28 am to 13SaintTiger
quote:
Basically only a rich fool would do this
Only if he had enough resources to fill out 58,440,268 play slips for the possible combinations, yet alone have it all ran before Wednesday's drawing. I would assume he'd have the tickets ran in the states that exempt from paying state tax i.e. CA, DE, FL, NH, PA, SD, TN, TX, WA, WY or Puerto Rico.
Posted on 1/10/16 at 11:32 am to tokenasian37
quote:
Only if he had enough resources to fill out 58,440,268 play slips for the possible combinations, yet alone have it all ran before Wednesday's drawing. I would assume he'd have the tickets ran in the states that exempt from paying state tax i.e. CA, DE, FL, NH, PA, SD, TN, TX, WA, WY or Puerto Rico.
That person would have to account for other winners. It isn't profitable to spend $600million on a $600million payout or $800mill annuity
Posted on 1/10/16 at 11:40 am to 13SaintTiger
I understand, just stating that it's not impossible for somebody to do it but he needs an army of people to get it done; that's 58 million play slips he needs to get ran before Wednesday drawing.
ETA: He'll be screwed if there's more than 1 winner than himself.
ETA: He'll be screwed if there's more than 1 winner than himself.
This post was edited on 1/10/16 at 11:41 am
Posted on 1/10/16 at 11:54 am to 13SaintTiger
quote:
That person would have to account for other winners.
If someone was really going to try to pull it off, I'd recommend they make it very public knowledge. If the public knew someone was going buying every single combination they'd be less inclined to purchase their own tickets knowing it would be a split pot at best.
I'm not saying it would have a huge impact, but it certainly wouldn't hurt.
Also, someone spending $595M on tickets would also win a guaranteed $93.5ish million from all of the additional prizes - 25 $1M prizes for his 25 tickets that had all 5 numbers but missed the PB, all the way down to his ~7,626,000 tickets that had just the PB and won $4.
Lastly, I would assume you can deduct the gambling "losses" - $595M or so - from your winnings. Considering the peripheral prizes and the jackpot total, you'd expect roughly $900M in winnings, $305M of which is "profit". You'd owe slightly more than $139M in taxes for a "take home" of nearly $761M.
All of that being said, one other winner would make it unprofitable.
Posted on 1/10/16 at 12:00 pm to slackster
quote:
they'd be less inclined to purchase their own tickets knowing it would be a split pot at best.
Not with all the trolls in this country.
Posted on 1/10/16 at 12:06 pm to MrLarson
quote:
Not with all the trolls in this country.
Yea, that makes zero sense. I don't care if someone is going to buy all the combos, I'm going to still buy a ticket.
Posted on 1/10/16 at 12:23 pm to slackster
Don't forget...if someone laid out $600m for this week that would bump the payout up huge, right?
If roughly 50% of ticket sales go to the jackpot, then $1.2b would be around $1.5b in that case. Is this right or am I way off?
If roughly 50% of ticket sales go to the jackpot, then $1.2b would be around $1.5b in that case. Is this right or am I way off?
Posted on 1/10/16 at 2:13 pm to Dave Worth
I'd expect the 1.3 billion to go up regardless
Posted on 1/10/16 at 2:16 pm to weadjust
it's actually 1 in 292mil
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