- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Let's discuss the Monty Hall problem (probabilities, odds)
Posted on 8/12/17 at 9:56 am to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 8/12/17 at 9:56 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:Right. I love poker but never got way into it. If you throw every emotion out the window and play strictly on the math(if you know the math obviously) you'll be successful in the long run playing at lower levels or random casino games(meant to say, not playing the pros)
this is why i make money playing poker (made my return last night after almost a month off)
This is essentially a math equation. I'd never know it without it being explained. BUt now that I do I know it's not a theory, it's a proven fact that switching gives you a 2in 3 chance of being correct.
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 9:57 am
1
Posted on 8/12/17 at 9:57 am to Nado Jenkins83
quote:You just told me that you understood the math.
I dont buy that the odds don't change
That's obviously not the case.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 9:57 am to Nado Jenkins83
quote:Tell me where this is incorrect.
I dont buy that the odds don't change
3 options, you choose door 1 each time, you switch every time:
1. Car is behind door 1, you switch you lose
2. Car is behind door 2, you switch you win
3. Car is behind door 3, you switch you win
Posted on 8/12/17 at 9:59 am to shel311
actually playing by the math (as in GTO) is more required for playing against experts
but basic math and an understanding that donks want to gamble will print money long term. you just have to deal with variance and minimize bad runs/losses. i would add in "maximize wins" but i'm coming off a bad run and am playing like a pussy right now and don't want to false advertise
there used to be (probably still exist) websites that let you run simulations of this problem
but basic math and an understanding that donks want to gamble will print money long term. you just have to deal with variance and minimize bad runs/losses. i would add in "maximize wins" but i'm coming off a bad run and am playing like a pussy right now and don't want to false advertise
quote:
This is essentially a math equation. I'd never know it without it being explained. BUt now that I do I know it's not a theory, it's a proven fact that switching gives you a 2in 3 chance of being correct.
there used to be (probably still exist) websites that let you run simulations of this problem
Posted on 8/12/17 at 10:00 am to PrimeTime Money
I understand the math
It's the perception of changing from 3 doors to 2
It's the perception of changing from 3 doors to 2
Posted on 8/12/17 at 10:00 am to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 8/12/17 at 10:01 am to Nado Jenkins83
quote:
I understand the math
Do you? You said this 2 pages ago:
quote:
Yea and if you switch you have a 1/3 chance as it is only one door out of 3.
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 10:03 am
Posted on 8/12/17 at 10:02 am to shel311
Fun fact of the day: Monty Hall is still alive and kicking. He is going to turn 96 in a couple weeks. His wife of 69 years passed away in June.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 10:03 am to shel311
If your still counting the opened door when you switch yes.
If it is eliminated then no
If it is eliminated then no
Posted on 8/12/17 at 10:03 am to Nado Jenkins83
bro
go to the sim i just linked. spent like 20 minutes passively running it a few thousand times
go to the sim i just linked. spent like 20 minutes passively running it a few thousand times
Posted on 8/12/17 at 10:04 am to Nado Jenkins83
quote:You keep saying this, but if you understood the math this wouldn't be an issue for you.
I understand the math
It's the perception of changing from 3 doors to 2
Posted on 8/12/17 at 10:04 am to SlowFlowPro
Nah. I'm good
Posted on 8/12/17 at 10:04 am to Nado Jenkins83
quote:Gonna post it again...
If your still counting the opened door when you switch yes.
If it is eliminated then no
Tell me where this is incorrect.
3 options, you choose door 1 each time, you switch every time:
1. Car is behind door 1, you switch you lose
2. Car is behind door 2, you switch you win
3. Car is behind door 3, you switch you win
Posted on 8/12/17 at 10:07 am to FootballNostradamus
quote:
This.
If I switched and lost because my original pick was correct I'd give every nerd I saw for the rest of my life a swirlie.
What the frick is a swirlie?
Posted on 8/12/17 at 10:08 am to Nado Jenkins83
Well then I guess you're done here. You don't wanna open your mind you just want to argue.
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 10:10 am
Posted on 8/12/17 at 10:10 am to Nado Jenkins83
quote:
Nah. I'm good
i'll do it for you
Posted on 8/12/17 at 11:11 am to Nado Jenkins83
quote:
I understand the math
It's the perception of changing from 3 doors to 2
If you really understood the math, you wouldn't worry about the perception.
As an aside not to you, I haven't played poker in a while... I'd love to get a good home game going again.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 11:12 am to TheArrogantCorndog
quote:
Let's keep it easy and always pick door 1... keep in mind he can't show you door 1 (your pick) and he can't show you the car 1 2 3 stay switch C G G W L G C G L W G G C L W 2/3 odds if switch 1/3 odds if stay
But there is a goat behind door #3, so this leaves only the first two scenarios, which is 50/50.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 11:22 am to shel311
quote:
Tell me where this is incorrect. 3 options, you choose door 1 each time, you switch every time: 1. Car is behind door 1, you switch you lose 2. Car is behind door 2, you switch you win 3. Car is behind door 3, you switch you win
Because the way the problem was stated, you picked door #1 and door #3 was opened, so the car is not behind door #3, leaving only the first two sçenarios, which shows the odds to be 50%.
If the problem is worded that you choose a door and the host opens a door to reveal a goat, it's a different scenario. That's not what the problems states as given in the OP.
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 11:25 am
Posted on 8/12/17 at 11:23 am to SlapahoeTribe
just go watch 21 they explain it there.
but it has to do with what i call relative probability.
ETA: Think of it this way - you pick your door for the prize. Then if someone said "i'll let you choose either to keep your door or to choose both of the other doors" which would you choose?
This is essentially what the host is doing by removing the incorrect door. While the new choice is essentially 50 / 50 - given what you know about the way the game is set up it is really 33% your door and 66% the other door since the other door has also taken on the probability of the door which the host has already revealed.
That is probably the best i can do without writing out a proof. Probability Theory and Discrete Mathematics is really fascinating - one of the courses i kept my textbook for.
but it has to do with what i call relative probability.
ETA: Think of it this way - you pick your door for the prize. Then if someone said "i'll let you choose either to keep your door or to choose both of the other doors" which would you choose?
This is essentially what the host is doing by removing the incorrect door. While the new choice is essentially 50 / 50 - given what you know about the way the game is set up it is really 33% your door and 66% the other door since the other door has also taken on the probability of the door which the host has already revealed.
That is probably the best i can do without writing out a proof. Probability Theory and Discrete Mathematics is really fascinating - one of the courses i kept my textbook for.
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 11:29 am
Page 5 of 13
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News