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Started By
Message
Let's discuss the Monty Hall problem (probabilities, odds)
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:01 am
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:01 am
Since there appears to be a plethora of mathematical geniuses in the card thread, I thought I'd see what the OT has to say about this little gem: The Monty Hall Problem (the goat of problems 
)
:quality(90)/https://curiosity-data.s3.amazonaws.com/images/memes/image/ddab06da-261a-4e7b-a67a-42a278a20d93.png)
What saith the OT?
What are your odds of guessing the right door?
How about after Monty shows you the goat?
) What saith the OT?
What are your odds of guessing the right door?
How about after Monty shows you the goat?
28
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:02 am to SlapahoeTribe
The answer is yes for reasons I have never completely understood
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:03 am to SlapahoeTribe
The catch is that it is presumed the host knows what is behind each door.
This does not hold true in a blind selection.
This does not hold true in a blind selection.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:03 am to SlapahoeTribe
Hearts can't desire anything as they have no conscience. I'm switching to door 3 and making sure I'm getting something out of this.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:06 am to fightin tigers
This is indeed the mind frick of the scenario.
It's like the Schrodinger's cat for statisticians
ETA: assuming the host knows which has the prize, you always always switch. While very smart people disagreed initially, it has since been proven to be the statistical choice.
It's like the Schrodinger's cat for statisticians
ETA: assuming the host knows which has the prize, you always always switch. While very smart people disagreed initially, it has since been proven to be the statistical choice.
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 2:11 am
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:11 am to SlapahoeTribe
Easy. Door #2
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:13 am to SlapahoeTribe
I'm just happy I'm gonna at least win a goat.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:15 am to Nado Jenkins83
You just make sure you wait till you are off premises before you commit your act of beastialty.
Philosoraptor moment: what if your heart's desire was a goat?
Philosoraptor moment: what if your heart's desire was a goat?
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:16 am to Volvagia
Point is I never win shite.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:22 am to Nado Jenkins83
quote:Now there's a question - did the TV show let you take a goat home if you wanted?
I'm just happy I'm gonna at least win a goat.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:23 am to SlapahoeTribe
Ok
There are 3 doors and 2 goats... you have a 2/3 chance from the beginning of being wrong... when he opens one door revealing a goat, he is essentially telling you what door the car is behind in 2/3 of the game... and it isn't the one you picked, and clearly isn't the goat... by showing you the goat, he adds value to the last door, boosting your chances of you switch
You now have a 2/3 advantage if you switch, and only a 1/3 chance of you stay
Another way to see it:
The player has a 1/3 chance of being right the first time, and the other two doors combined have a 2/3 chance... when he shows you the goat, those odds remain, except the full 2/3 odds shift from two doors to the one remaining door you didn't pick and a goat wasn't shown
There are 3 doors and 2 goats... you have a 2/3 chance from the beginning of being wrong... when he opens one door revealing a goat, he is essentially telling you what door the car is behind in 2/3 of the game... and it isn't the one you picked, and clearly isn't the goat... by showing you the goat, he adds value to the last door, boosting your chances of you switch
You now have a 2/3 advantage if you switch, and only a 1/3 chance of you stay
Another way to see it:
The player has a 1/3 chance of being right the first time, and the other two doors combined have a 2/3 chance... when he shows you the goat, those odds remain, except the full 2/3 odds shift from two doors to the one remaining door you didn't pick and a goat wasn't shown
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:34 am to SlapahoeTribe
It's situations like these I start accusing people of witchcraft
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:36 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
The answer is yes for reasons I have never completely understood
This.
If I switched and lost because my original pick was correct I'd give every nerd I saw for the rest of my life a swirlie.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:37 am to TheArrogantCorndog
quote:
and it isn't the one you picked,
This is always a hangup. Why couldn't it be the door you picked and he is luring you away.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:38 am to SlapahoeTribe
Lets change the scenario to help you understand...what if there were 100 doors instead of three? You pick a door. Then the host reveals 98 goats behind 98 of the doors you didn't select.
Then he asks you if you want to swap to the remaining unknown door... Now is it more clear that you should indeed swap?
Then he asks you if you want to swap to the remaining unknown door... Now is it more clear that you should indeed swap?
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:41 am to deuceiswild
quote:
Then he asks you if you want to swap to the remaining unknown door... Now is it more clear that you should indeed swap?
My chances that I was lucky enough to guess correct the first time went from 33% to just 1% in yours.
Guessing 1 out of 3 is presumably doable. Guessing 1 out of 100 is a lot more rare.
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 2:43 am
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:44 am to fightin tigers
My only point was to make it plainly obvious why you should always swap, not to explain the math behind it.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:44 am to fightin tigers
You have a 1/3 chance of being right from the outset... just because he showed you a goat, doesn't change those odds, you still have a 1/3 chance of being right... 3 doors, and you picked one... the goat increases the odds of the last door to 2/3 by negating the goat's door to zero
He adds a value input to the remaining door, by stripping away the value of the goat's door... your initial door is still at 1/3 because you picked it with no added value input
You have a 1/3 chance of being right from the start, and a 2/3 chance of being right if you switch
They are counting on people being either too arrogant or too uncomfortable to change
He adds a value input to the remaining door, by stripping away the value of the goat's door... your initial door is still at 1/3 because you picked it with no added value input
You have a 1/3 chance of being right from the start, and a 2/3 chance of being right if you switch
They are counting on people being either too arrogant or too uncomfortable to change
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:44 am to deuceiswild
I just can't fathom to see it that way. I still feel I got a 50 50 shot at the prize. But then again I'm not too smart
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:47 am to Jim Rockford
(no message)
This post was edited on 11/25/17 at 8:23 pm
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