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re: Hurricane Season - Nicole only 2nd Cat 3 for Bermuda

Posted on 8/29/16 at 8:28 pm to
Posted by mctiger1985
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2009
3693 posts
Posted on 8/29/16 at 8:28 pm to
quote:

Mother nature stacked, Hawaii fuuuuuucked

Going to hawaii in two weeks. Here's hoping I'm not leaving one incoming hurricane to head to another one
This post was edited on 8/29/16 at 8:29 pm
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19809 posts
Posted on 8/29/16 at 8:43 pm to
quote:

92L has been designated over Africa






Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
41488 posts
Posted on 8/29/16 at 8:44 pm to
looks good, i would think it will struggle with the sal for a few days
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19809 posts
Posted on 8/29/16 at 9:17 pm to
quote:

looks good, i would think it will struggle with the sal for a few days


SAL can actually be helpful at times but it tends to have an negative impact when it gets out in front of a system. The initial tracks keep 92L south of 20N across the MDR but the NASA aerosol model surges SAL all the way down to 10N. Also, the transition of Gaston to the high latitudes could leave a series of ULL across the Atlantic (this can best be describe in a PV framework but I'll leave it at ULLs across the Atlantic). So dry air and ULLs... where have we heard that story before? Not to mention possible changes to the Hadley Cell over the past several years
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
50747 posts
Posted on 8/29/16 at 9:18 pm to
did Katrina originate off the African coast, or form around Florida?
Posted by LSUgusto
Member since May 2005
19222 posts
Posted on 8/29/16 at 9:31 pm to
quote:

did Katrina originate off the African coast
I don't think so. Even if its wave originated in Africa (I don't know), it didn't become noteworthy until it reached the Bahamas. It wasn't a sawblade across the Atlantic, if that's what you're asking.
This post was edited on 8/29/16 at 9:35 pm
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19809 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:59 pm to
Meanwhile, Major Hurricane Gaston still dominates the Atlantic:






Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
41488 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 10:02 pm to
What a beast, what is your opinion of the wave that just came off Africa today?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19809 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 8:14 am to
quote:


what is your opinion of the wave that just came off Africa today?


Pretty much the same as I posted above, SAL was very unfavorable and then the trek across the MDR could be hampered by ULLs left in the wake of Gaston. It has all but been choked out by SAL over the last couple of days.

A couple of days ago:



Yesterday:



Today:

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19809 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 8:18 am to
With two systems heading towards Hawaii, this is what an island in the tropical Pacific that is tall enough get snow can do to a hurricane:

2014 Iselle
This post was edited on 8/31/16 at 8:19 am
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19809 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 6:23 pm to
The models have basically given up on 92L. Outside of the current systems, the next 7 to 10 days look pretty calm.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
41488 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 6:28 pm to
I'd still watch ex92L now i don't think it will develop but until the wave axis completely dies i guess i'll still track it
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19809 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 6:33 pm to
Yea, the vort max is traceable across the Atlantic but conditions look pretty hostile. Only like 3 12z Euro EPS members get it to the Gulf and do something with it.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
41488 posts
Posted on 8/31/16 at 6:35 pm to
i just hope it dies and it is not another 99L type
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 9/2/16 at 8:43 am to
Invest 92L is back.



Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19809 posts
Posted on 9/2/16 at 8:53 am to
quote:

Invest 92L is back.


It has solid PW with the wave pouch but still has a lot of SAL with it. Note the hazy area with splotchy like cloud pattern:



None of the models are really doing anything with it but the overall background state of the Atlantic if favorable for development and there is a KW pushing through.



Any development would likely be well down the road after it moves through the Caribbean Sea graveyard. However, this season has been anything but predictable in the Atlantic.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/2/16 at 8:59 am to
Is that wave near Africa going to be a threat for the Gulf? Hopefully something pushes it away by the time it gets that far?
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
202809 posts
Posted on 9/2/16 at 8:59 am to
And away we geaux!!!!!!!!!
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/4/16 at 8:49 am to
NHC has that wave about a 30% chance at developing into something. Looks like it's going to hit Mexico then maybe skip back into the Gulf? Something to watch I guess.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19809 posts
Posted on 9/4/16 at 9:16 am to
quote:

NHC has that wave about a 30% chance at developing into something. Looks like it's going to hit Mexico then maybe skip back into the Gulf? Something to watch I guess.


It actually looks halfway decent this morning:



It is just racing along and will shortly be moving into the E. Caribbean Sea. The low level flow will increase even more making it hard to maintain deep convection (this can cause the low levels to become divergent and you need low level convergence for deep convection). It is possible that conditions could improve closer to Mexico or in the Gulf but that is several days away.
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