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re: Storm Aftermath - Hurricane Matthew will be Retired
Posted on 9/23/16 at 10:01 pm to LakeViewLSU
Posted on 9/23/16 at 10:01 pm to LakeViewLSU
Well thats not ideal
This post was edited on 9/23/16 at 10:02 pm
2
Posted on 9/24/16 at 7:34 am to TigerTatorTots
NHC now has P39L up to 50% chance of formation over the next 5 days
All reliable global models are now showing a system in the WCAB in the 8-10 day range now:
00z Euro
00z GFS
All reliable global models are now showing a system in the WCAB in the 8-10 day range now:
00z Euro
00z GFS
This post was edited on 9/24/16 at 7:41 am
Posted on 9/24/16 at 7:38 am to rds dc
Tracks from some of the late season low runners of the modern ear (since 1950):
Posted on 9/24/16 at 8:10 am to rds dc
Storm2k is up in arms about the possibilities of this storm becoming a problem. Everyone appears to be on their toes already.
Posted on 9/24/16 at 8:22 am to SohCahToa
quote:
Storm2k is up in arms about the possibilities of this storm becoming a problem. Everyone appears to be on their toes already.
The model support for this system is pretty impressive and they have been pretty consistent with support for a few days now. Beyond that, signals started flashing in the global pattern a week to 10 days ago that the WCAB and Gulf could be supportive of development by the end of the month into early October. So I've been casually watching this for a while now but still lots of unknowns. Maybe not as uncertain as typical in the 7-10 day range?
Posted on 9/24/16 at 8:31 am to rds dc
Keep us informed. 
Posted on 9/24/16 at 8:39 am to rds dc
quote:
late season low runners
I don't recall ever seeing a system maintain a straight line that passes just north of S. America or gets that close to middle/lower C. America. Does this only happen late in the season?
Posted on 9/24/16 at 9:32 am to rds dc
What is crazy is that NONE of the low-runners have gone on to hit Florida during this time frame. The GFS insists on a hard re-curve right as it enters the Gulf but that all comes down to timing of any trough. A little faster or a weaker trough/stronger ridge pushes this further west. I will say that the ensembles are much further east so maybe the operationals will start to sniff that out and in the coming days we may see quite a few runs where this goes out to sea, missing the mainland US.
Posted on 9/24/16 at 10:56 am to rds dc
Its pretty crazy how much everything is in agreement for being so far out time-wise. That's the thing that worries me.
Posted on 9/24/16 at 11:13 am to rds dc
How was Beulah a late season storm? 
Posted on 9/24/16 at 11:46 am to SohCahToa
quote:
Its pretty crazy how much everything is in agreement for being so far out time-wise. That's the thing that worries me.
You're talking about something over 10 days out. You realize how much can and will change? Hermine?
This post was edited on 9/24/16 at 11:51 am
Posted on 9/24/16 at 11:49 am to Wimp Lo
Aww shut up alter..
Posted on 9/24/16 at 11:51 am to TigerBait2008
I don't recall addressing you, assbag.
This post was edited on 9/24/16 at 11:52 am
Posted on 9/24/16 at 12:29 pm to Wimp Lo
quote:
You're talking about something over 10 days out. You realize how much can and will change? Hermine?
Yes. That doesn't make the current models any less interesting to discuss. I'm not sandbagging my house. I'm simply discussing a potential storm.
Posted on 9/24/16 at 12:34 pm to Wimp Lo
If this thins sniff the GOM it's going to Mexico
Book it
Book it
Posted on 9/24/16 at 12:38 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
I was wrong, it's nearly 14 days out. I like watching too, but South America to New York needs to really pay close attention. 
Forgot to add, typically around the time of year it's predicted to make landfall, we usually have some cool fronts making their way down.
Forgot to add, typically around the time of year it's predicted to make landfall, we usually have some cool fronts making their way down.
This post was edited on 9/24/16 at 12:40 pm
Posted on 9/24/16 at 1:03 pm to Wimp Lo
I'm just intrigued by tropical systems. Its fun to watch it all progress, from the storm itself all the way to the reactions of people. I'm not panicking. Clearly we are a ways away from knowing exactly where this is going, but based on the fact that everything seems to be pointing to a storm in the Carribean/Gulf eventually, I'd like to keep up with it.
Posted on 9/24/16 at 1:11 pm to SohCahToa
I wasn't giving you crap man, you used the word "worries". I was just adding a counter.
Posted on 9/24/16 at 1:16 pm to Wimp Lo
I get it. People get up in arms in here rather quickly when all people are doing is discussing something. Didn't mean to get so defensive. Posted on 9/24/16 at 1:19 pm to SohCahToa
As uneducated as I am on all of this, it caught me by surprise to see the storm2k thread on this race to 43 pages in about 4 days. Lots of people talking about this wave right now.
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