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Posted on 9/23/16 at 10:02 am to East Coast Band
quote:
a 917 mb central pressure would be a pretty strong storm.
That would be no bueno
But it is almost certainly wrong. The signal for a WCAB system has be growing for over a week now but, at this point, there is no way to speculate on details or even if a system will even form.
Posted on 9/23/16 at 10:35 am to rds dc
quote:So true! These predictions are a loooong ways out, additionally the models haven't performed well this year as I understand it. Its hard to trust them on 12-14 day predictions when they couldn't get it right for those right in our back yard inside of two days.
The signal for a WCAB system has be growing for over a week now but, at this point, there is no way to speculate on details or even if a system will even form
This post was edited on 9/23/16 at 10:39 am
Posted on 9/23/16 at 10:41 am to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
More importantly, its this cold front actually going to make it through Houston Monday, or are we getting fricked and have to wait a couple more weeks for fall to show up?
Posted on 9/23/16 at 11:53 am to rds dc
And the trend continues with the 12z GFS:
Posted on 9/23/16 at 11:54 am to rds dc
One looks like a dick, one looks like a boomerang and the other one looks like a corn dog.
Posted on 9/23/16 at 11:58 am to LSUJuice
quote:
More importantly, its this cold front actually going to make it through Houston Monday, or are we getting fricked and have to wait a couple more weeks for fall to show up?
Doesn't look too good for y'all but who knows! Every "cold" front for Dallas has been a bust so far this month. Running in this heat is killing me!
Posted on 9/23/16 at 12:03 pm to rds dc
904MB Holy Frick thankfully that is still a long way from now but if that does materialize 
This post was edited on 9/23/16 at 12:04 pm
Posted on 9/23/16 at 12:09 pm to lsuman25
quote:
904MB Holy Frick thankfully that is still a long way from now but if that does materialize
I posted on the 1st page that the models seemed to be too quick with developing this system. The GFS still appears to be overly aggressive with development. However, RI in that area of the WCAB is pretty common, if a system moves through it.
Posted on 9/23/16 at 12:13 pm to rds dc
Yea, i figured the GFS was being bullish with development that fast, needless to say though I'll be watching this system.
Posted on 9/23/16 at 12:44 pm to lsuman25
The models are quite ominous but they have been so horrible all year. The big concern for me is that they are in pretty good agreement through the next 10 days, especially compared to earlier systems. Lots (if not all) models are on board for development and all the big ones have it in the same general vicinity. That is quite telling to me that the upper air pattern is not going to be so complicated, at least with the path. Intensity is always a huge gamble, this will probably not get nearly so strong as the GFS is showing. That goes against everything we have seen this year but it is not impossible.
Posted on 9/23/16 at 1:40 pm to BigB0882
The thing with the models is they're always shaken with things like intensity until the system actually forms. That was why we saw all the mess with hermine.
Posted on 9/23/16 at 1:58 pm to lsuman25
yeah, but now the Euro basically doesn't develop it. So all bets are off, really. It could become a deadly cat 5 or stay a weak wave and hit anywhere between South American and the Carolinas. I think they've got it narrowed down.
Posted on 9/23/16 at 2:42 pm to BigB0882
quote:
The models are quite ominous but they have been so horrible all year. The big concern for me is that they are in pretty good agreement through the next 10 days, especially compared to earlier systems. Lots (if not all) models are on board for development and all the big ones have it in the same general vicinity. That is quite telling to me that the upper air pattern is not going to be so complicated, at least with the path. Intensity is always a huge gamble, this will probably not get nearly so strong as the GFS is showing. That goes against everything we have seen this year but it is not impossible.
By all metrics the models continue to improve with 5 day 500mb anomaly correlation around 0.900 for the northern hemisphere this year. However, Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis has seemed like a train wreck this season and that causes all kinds of issues as the models go out in time from the point of genesis.
Posted on 9/23/16 at 2:44 pm to rds dc
When should we expect this storm in the Western Carribean?
Posted on 9/23/16 at 2:47 pm to otowntiger
quote:
yeah, but now the Euro basically doesn't develop it. So all bets are off, really. It could become a deadly cat 5 or stay a weak wave and hit anywhere between South American and the Carolinas. I think they've got it narrowed down.
The 12z Euro is certainly a plausible outcome, esp. given how the last few seasons have gone. It races the wave westward into CA and that run would likely result in an EPAC system if it went out to 12 days or so.
Posted on 9/23/16 at 6:04 pm to rds dc
Another crazy run for the GFS at 18z and won't post what it does after this:
Also, the 12z Euro didn't develop anything from P39L but somewhere b/w 1/3 and 1/2 of the 12z Euro EPS members develop the system. The D10 mean is a weak system in the WCAB, so that gives some hints about the members that do develop:
Also, the 12z Euro didn't develop anything from P39L but somewhere b/w 1/3 and 1/2 of the 12z Euro EPS members develop the system. The D10 mean is a weak system in the WCAB, so that gives some hints about the members that do develop:
Posted on 9/23/16 at 6:21 pm to rds dc
Posted on 9/23/16 at 9:28 pm to rds dc
Typically, the earlier a storm develops the better b/c the odds of it turning out to sea are much higher. The GFS has been pretty insistent on developing this system pretty early on but it keeps a monster blocking ridge right over the top of the system not letting it go anywhere but west. This shows up nicely in the 18z GEFS:
Posted on 9/23/16 at 9:50 pm to rds dc
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/23/16 at 9:54 pm
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