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Gulf Action - TS Danielle Forms in BoC - Earliest 4th Storm

Posted on 6/18/16 at 8:13 am
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19809 posts
Posted on 6/18/16 at 8:13 am






Overall, conditions aren't too favorable for development across the EPAC and Gulf but that could change heading into early July. Still too far out to speculate, but the Gulf could become more conducive to development heading towards the 4th of July holiday.



If anything were to develop, the current pattern that will be responsible for record heat across the SW this weekend should also keep any storm pinned down in the BoC and move it towards Mexico.





This post was edited on 6/20/16 at 6:46 am
Posted by TulaneUVA
Member since Jun 2005
25891 posts
Posted on 6/18/16 at 8:14 am to
Mexico fricked
Posted by RummelTiger
Texas
Member since Aug 2004
89862 posts
Posted on 6/18/16 at 8:23 am to
Come to me, Joboo! I wantz more rainz!!!
Posted by Uncle Stu
#AlbinoLivesMatter
Member since Aug 2004
33659 posts
Posted on 6/18/16 at 8:25 am to
quote:

I wantz more rainz!!!

how much more rain youz guyz need?

aint you all full up?
Posted by RummelTiger
Texas
Member since Aug 2004
89862 posts
Posted on 6/18/16 at 8:27 am to
quote:

how much more rain youz guyz need?

aint you all full up?


Yes, but I don't live at Graveyard Point, or along Onion Creek, nor do I attempt to cross flooded roads (turn around, don't drown - maybe they need to print those signs in Spanish)...so MORE RAINZ!!!
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19809 posts
Posted on 6/18/16 at 8:32 am to
quote:


how much more rain youz guyz need?

aint you all full up?


If I've learned anything since moving to Texas, it's that you greedily take all the rain whenever you can get it!
Posted by fatboydave
Fat boy land
Member since Aug 2004
17979 posts
Posted on 6/18/16 at 10:02 am to
Going to the beach for the 4th. Don't jinx it with all this bad weather stuff.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84871 posts
Posted on 6/18/16 at 10:05 am to
95% of the info and maps you post makes some sense to me, but this this is fricking comical:

Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
80774 posts
Posted on 6/18/16 at 11:14 am to
Yea, that graph/map/chart makes zero sense to me
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84871 posts
Posted on 6/18/16 at 11:17 am to
quote:

Yea, that graph/map/chart makes zero sense to me


I mean reading the axises gives me a little inclination, but there is just way too much going on to have any idea what it means. I need my weather charts/maps to have landmasses on them.
Posted by BigB0882
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2014
5308 posts
Posted on 6/18/16 at 11:20 am to
The only thing I can figure from that graph is it is supposed to tell us when the MJO is in certain regions and when Kelvin waves are moving through which are a big sign of possible tropical cyclone development but other than that I am totally lost.
Posted by HubbaBubba
F_uck Joe Biden, TX
Member since Oct 2010
45751 posts
Posted on 6/18/16 at 11:24 am to
quote:

MORE RAINZ!!!
frick that! Goddamn lakes are full in Texas.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19809 posts
Posted on 6/18/16 at 9:13 pm to
quote:

95% of the info and maps you post makes some sense to me, but this this is fricking comical:




That is a hovmöller with time on the left and longitude on the bottom. It is tracking the different types of atmospheric waves that move across the equator. Typically, the waves move from west to east, so left to right on the hovmöller. Significant waves will show up slanted, since you are moving up in time as you move down. The red dots are where and when cyclones formed.

You can see a significant MJO wave start on the far left around the end of April and move across during May and into June. There was also a Kelvin wave that was superimposed for a period of time.

In simplistic terms, the blue areas are unstable air and the brown areas are stable air. You are more likely to see development with unstable air. The red box is highlighting a period of stable air across the EPAC, Gulf and Western Caribbean.
This post was edited on 6/18/16 at 9:16 pm
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19809 posts
Posted on 6/19/16 at 4:21 pm to
This mess is now TD4 and could become the earliest 4th named storm before Mexicoing it.

Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
98182 posts
Posted on 6/19/16 at 4:29 pm to
#itshappening
Posted by SEClint
New Orleans, LA/Portland, OR
Member since Nov 2006
48769 posts
Posted on 6/19/16 at 4:44 pm to
Not hitting louisiana, not caring.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 6/19/16 at 4:51 pm to
NOAA is so desperate to remain relevant and get funding that they are starting to give names to thunderstorms now.....
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
98182 posts
Posted on 6/19/16 at 4:58 pm to
quote:

Could be Earliest 4th Storm


TS Donald?
Posted by baytiger
Boston
Member since Dec 2007
46978 posts
Posted on 6/20/16 at 4:19 am to
looks like a good bit of consolidating went on last night. Mexico is lucky it's going to run out of water.
Posted by Donkeypunch
Georgia
Member since Jun 2007
1420 posts
Posted on 6/20/16 at 4:42 am to
Any threat of this hitting the Fla Panhandle around that time?
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